<strong>European</strong> CommissionOccasional Paper 60, Volume IJordan gives a telling case study in the labour <strong>market</strong> impact of <strong>migration</strong> <strong>flows</strong>, as – according toChatelard (2004) – Jordanian economic development is closely intertwined with the prevailingdynamics of international labour mobility. This was particularly true in the 1980s, when anestimated 42 percent of the labour force was expatriated, <strong>and</strong> such a massive outflow led to asubstantial decline in unemployment. When, in the early 1990s, a large number of Jordanians wererepatriated because of the Gulf War, the country experienced a 10 percent increase in itspopulation, causing heavy pressure on infrastructure, public services <strong>and</strong> housing, <strong>and</strong> theunemployment rate climbed as high as 30 percent (De Bel Air, 2008).By the same token, international <strong>migration</strong> has always been an essential route of escape for excesslabour supply among Palestinians: restrictions on entry to the Israeli labour <strong>market</strong> after thebeginning of the second Intifada created a sharp rise in unemployment, which increased from 13 to29 percent between 1999 <strong>and</strong> 2006 (Hilal, 2007).As far as the large countries of the Arab Mediterranean area are concerned, Ramamurthy (2003)finds that Egypt is the only one in his sample where e<strong>migration</strong> has had a significant effect onemployment. Nassar (2005) argues that – notwithst<strong>and</strong>ing data limitations <strong>and</strong> despite the fact thatthe best workers, <strong>and</strong> not the unemployed, are those who migrate – the direct impact of <strong>migration</strong>on the Egyptian labour <strong>market</strong> can be gauged from events during the Gulf crisis, when Iraq <strong>and</strong>Kuwait closed their borders, <strong>and</strong> many Egyptians were repatriated. 84The effects of <strong>migration</strong> on labour <strong>market</strong>s need not be confined to the areas of origin of themigrants, as international <strong>migration</strong> is strictly linked to the internal movement of peoples: it ofteninduces the internal relocation of labour forces. For instance, de Haas (2007) shows how migrantsending areas in Morocco became destinations for many internal migrants from other villages orfrom poorer regions; Berriane (1996) <strong>and</strong> El Meskine (1993), quoted in de Haas (2007), observesthat many construction <strong>and</strong> agricultural workers in the Rif area come from the Tafilalt <strong>and</strong> Draavalley in Southern Morocco.The figures about the aggregate size of <strong>migration</strong> – both in terms of <strong>flows</strong> <strong>and</strong> stocks – out ofAMCs needs to be h<strong>and</strong>led with caution as the most widely-used datasets – such as Docquier <strong>and</strong>Marfouk (2005) – are based on im<strong>migration</strong> statistics that do not cover the Gulf countries, asrecalled in Section 5. With this caveat in mind, Table 6.1 reveals that past <strong>and</strong> current <strong>migration</strong>patterns have an uneven impact on the main educational groups, as better-educated migrants areoverrepresented in the migrant population. While the emigrant population of these eight countriesis characterized by a varying skill profile, 85 as the data columns on selection rates show, the rate ofe<strong>migration</strong> from each of these countries is increasing in skill level. Lebanon, Morocco 86 <strong>and</strong> – to alesser extent – Tunisia are characterized by a rate of e<strong>migration</strong> among tertiary-educatedindividuals which might raise some concerns concerning a sizeable brain drain, that could push upthe skill premium in the labour–earnings distribution (see also section 1.2 on this). Indeed, Adams(2003) argues that Morocco <strong>and</strong> Tunisia suffer from a drain of their talented workers, though it isfair to say that the drain of skilled workers does not rank high among the factors that hinder theeconomic development in the AMCs countries – particularly in the larger Maghreb countries – as itis limited in size when compared to other developing regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa (Ozden,2006).84 Similarly, Nassar (2008) argues that there have been clear benefits from e<strong>migration</strong> in terms of unemployment reductionin the 1980s, when Gulf countries attracted a large part of the Egyptian excess labour supply.85 The disproportionately high share of low-skilled individuals in the migrant population of the Maghreb countries – Algeria,Morocco <strong>and</strong> Tunisia – can be traced back to the existance of well-established <strong>migration</strong> networks with the countries ofdestination, which, as the recent paper by Beine et al. (2008a) shows, are associated with a reduction in the selection rate ofthe migrant population.86 In Morocco – together with Egypt <strong>and</strong> Jordan – the rate of return to education remains low (World Bank, 2008),notwithstaning the reported <strong>migration</strong> rate of tertiary-educated workers which could have pushed up skilled wages.128
Chapter IIThe impact of <strong>migration</strong> on labour <strong>market</strong>s in Arab Mediterranean countriesTable 6.1 Rates of e<strong>migration</strong> <strong>and</strong> selection rates of migrants from AMCs, year 2000Rate of e<strong>migration</strong>Selection rateLow Medium High Total Low Medium High TotalAlgeria 4.6 2.1 9.4 4.5 76.7 9.2 14.1 100.0Egypt 0.2 0.8 4.6 0.9 18.3 22.9 58.9 100.0Jordan 1.0 2.4 7.2 2.8 16.4 28.0 55.6 100.0Lebanon 9.4 11.1 38.6 15.0 30.4 25.1 44.5 100.0Morocco 6.8 8.1 17.0 7.6 70.6 16.5 12.9 100.0Palestine 1.0 2.5 7.2 2.9 15.8 29.1 55.0 100.0Syria 0.9 2.3 6.1 1.9 31.0 24.7 44.3 100.0Tunisia 5.1 3.8 12.5 5.4 73.0 12.1 14.9 100.0Source: Docquier <strong>and</strong> Marfouk (2005)Table 6.2 provides data on the rate of e<strong>migration</strong> for low- <strong>and</strong> highly-educated individuals from arecently released update of the dataset by Docquier <strong>and</strong> Marfouk (2005), which also gathersim<strong>migration</strong> statistics from the Gulf countries. 87 This table shows that the extent of skilled <strong>migration</strong>out of AMCs is easily underestimated if data sources are unduly restricted to OECD countries alone:including non-OECD destinations increases the e<strong>migration</strong> rate among the highly-skilled from 4.6 to8.4 percent for Egypt, <strong>and</strong> from 7.2 to 19.0 percent for Palestine. This means that the arguments aboutthe limited extent of the brain drain from AMCs which were based on Table 6.1 need to besomewhat mitigated.Table 6.2 Rates of e<strong>migration</strong> from AMCs by educational level,year 2000Rate of e<strong>migration</strong>LowHighAlgeria 4.7 9.9Egypt 2.7 8.4Jordan 8.4 11.4Lebanon 11.2 45.5Morocco 7.5 21.0Palestine 7.7 19.4Syria 2.5 8.0Tunisia 5.7 14.3Source: Docquier <strong>and</strong> Rapoport (2009)Still, in order to gauge the relevance of the possible concerns around the brain drain that couldarise from Table 6.2, those figures have to be compared with the high level of unemployment inbetter educated groups. 88 World Bank (2008a) argued that the unemployment rate in the whole87 The current version of the paper does not disclose the information on the primary data sources that the authors rely on.88 See Section 7.2 on the impact of the prospect to migrate on the unemployment level of higher-educated workers.129
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