Labour market performance and migration flows - European ...

European CommissionOccasional Paper 60, Volume Imigration schemes in the framework of the Global Migration Approach and more specifically in theEU-Arab Mediterranean framework.2.2.1 Trends and dynamics of temporary movementsAccording to the OCDE definition, “temporary migrants” covers many conditions: seasonal workers,trainees, international students, exchange visitors, researchers, artists, tourists, service providers,installers etc. It is very difficult then to compare data because single cases are classified in differentways in each country. The data provided by the OCDE on this issue is thereby incomplete for thereason mentioned above.Data collected shows, however, the sheer scale of temporary movements, which are 3 times largerthan permanent migration. It is important to note that seasonal workers represent 23% of alltemporary flows. Seasonal migration features in agriculture, but also in the tourist sector. Thedemand for seasonal workers is, in general, larger than the number of visas granted by thegovernment. Thus temporary jobs are usually done by holders of a student or tourist visa (in Table3 they are termed “working holiday makers”). In addition, when well-organized yearly jobs can bedone in shifts and so shared between two or more workers.The idea of expanding seasonal migration opportunities both for skilled and unskilled workers is inline with the circular vision of migration. However, supply and demand in this field needs morecoordination if irregular employment is to be avoided and demand anticipated.The idea put forward by the Commission to favour circular migration begins with the devising ofan institutional framework. Institutions should thus change so as to favour this type of movement,which have, to date, been constrained by restrictive migration legislation in destination countries.The history of European migration has shown that if migrants are free to exit and re-enter they tendto maintain a strong attachment with the country of origin and keep to a model of circularmigration whereby migration is not perceived as permanent. The changed institutional settingwhich took place in Northern Europe in 1973 after the beginning of the recession transformedtemporary migration to Germany, France and Belgium into permanent migration precisely becauseof the changes in migration policies. The reduction in the number of new entry permits granted byhost countries reduced first of all the number of exits and pushed immigrants to settle and tobecome more integrated in the destination countries (the number of demands for citizenshipincreased) 181 .If regulations shape the duration and the type of migration, a change in regulation versus a moreflexible pattern should increase the number of temporary migrants staying abroad. Seasonalmigration is just one of the many types of temporary migration. Also, contracted migrations, whichcould be designed so as to meet the workers’ needs, are another form used by companies for specialprojects.Nevertheless, it must be stated that temporary migration cannot be the only solution for the supplypressure of the AMCs. As Venturini (2008) has shown, the migratory potential due to excesssupply is too large to be solved by repeated migrations. With the use of a stock-flow model, we cancalculate the flow excess supply as the difference between the low supply and flow demand (asreplacement flow demand and as additional flow demand) and even the absolute excess flowsupply which takes into account the usual traditional (permanent) annual emigration outflows.What is left, the absolute excess supply in term of flows is too large to be solved only throughrepeated emigration as Table 4 shows. This would, for example, mean that each year in Morocco126,000 and in Egypt 72,000 workers would leave temporarily, and if economic conditions remainthe same, the following year the same people would leave temporarily for a second year abroad andthe new entrants for the first time with a total of 252,000 for Morocco and 144,000 for Egypt andso on.181 See Venturini 2004, section 5.182