<strong>European</strong> CommissionOccasional Paper 60, Volume Ieducation <strong>and</strong> vocational training systems, the increased labour participation of women – correspondwith those needed to foster private sector job creation <strong>and</strong> labour productivity growth at home.A field where analysis is sorely lacking is that of <strong>migration</strong> policies in countries of origin. TheILO/IOM/OCE 2007 H<strong>and</strong>book provides a general framework for policy-making (pp. 37-39) <strong>and</strong>labour policy options to improve labour <strong>migration</strong> outcomes are discussed in Chapter 4 of the WorldBank report (2009a, pp. 69-93).4.2 Outward Migration Flows: Extent <strong>and</strong> CharacteristicsThe lack of reliable <strong>and</strong> updated data on outward <strong>migration</strong> <strong>flows</strong> means that it is very difficult to draw ageneral picture of this phenomenon in AMCs. Some countries, like Syria, do not provide statistics foroutward <strong>migration</strong>, <strong>and</strong> AMC <strong>migration</strong> to the Gulf States (mostly temporary) is largely unrecorded. Sodata are fragmentary, <strong>and</strong> it is impossible to construct a comprehensive, accurate <strong>and</strong> reliable tableshowing the size of AMC outward labour <strong>migration</strong>, their destination, educational profile….We areforced to work with data from different, inconsistent sources, often corresponding to different years foreach country, or with fragmentary data from destination countries. As noted in the Thematic BackgroundPaper (Marchetta 2009), “most widely-quoted figures on emigrants are im<strong>migration</strong>-based, i.e. obtainedthrough the aggregation of data gathered in the destination countries. Such an approach can give rise tosubstantial discrepancies with e<strong>migration</strong>-based statistics, which – in the case of Egypt - can even be246% higher than data gathered in the countries of destination (Fargues, 2007)”. Available figures(summarized in Table 4.2.1) should be considered as minimum estimates, while actual levels could besignificantly higher.In any case, labour <strong>migration</strong> has played an important role, both economically <strong>and</strong> socially, in allAMCs in the last three to four decades, with Morocco <strong>and</strong> Egypt (with close to three million each)amongst the top 20 countries in the world with the largest number of emigrants. According to WorldBank 2009a figures, on average in 2005 the Middle East <strong>and</strong> North Africa countries had 3.9% of theirtotal population as migrants abroad (a higher proportion than the 2.9% world average). As a percentageof the total population, apart from Lebanon (where emigrants make up 17% of their country’spopulation), migrants from the Maghreb amount to 5.5% of the total population, <strong>and</strong> movepredominantly towards <strong>European</strong> OECD countries, while migrants from the Mashreq are estimated at3.3% of the population, <strong>and</strong> approximately two thirds of them reside in the Gulf <strong>and</strong> other Arabcountries. Overall, roughly 56% of MENA migrants live in EU countries, 32% in Gulf <strong>and</strong> other Arabcountries <strong>and</strong> a mere 12% in other countries, mainly North America <strong>and</strong> Australia 13 . In Europe, aroundfour-fifths of MENA immigrants come from the Maghreb countries, compared with less than 10% in thecase of Australia <strong>and</strong> North America, where MENA immigrants come mainly from Mashreq countries.Cross-country differences in terms of the geographical distribution of migrants are also related tothe predominant pattern of <strong>migration</strong>: while migrants towards the Gulf Countries tend to move on atemporary basis, <strong>migration</strong> towards the OECD is mostly on a permanent basis (World Bank, 2008a).These differences in geographical distribution <strong>and</strong> in the prevailing length of the individual <strong>migration</strong>experience have far-reaching consequences on the impact of <strong>migration</strong> on the labour <strong>market</strong>s,Characteristics of the labour <strong>market</strong>s at destination are a relevant mediating factor in shaping theimpact of <strong>migration</strong> upon the countries of origin. This also entails that the empirical relevance of thevarious potential channels of impact which will be highlighted in the following Chapter are likely todiffer across the Maghreb-Mashreq divide. Another relevant feature is the fact that migrants fromAMCs are predominantly male, although <strong>migration</strong> <strong>flows</strong> from Maghreb countries have recorded anincreasingly important role for women <strong>and</strong> children (Schramm, 2006b).13 In World Bank 2009, pp. 13-26, the shares stated are 42% in the EU, 45% in the Gulf <strong>and</strong> other Arab Countries <strong>and</strong> 13% in North America <strong>and</strong> Australia. This is due to the inclusion ofthe Palestinian diaspora, most of which lives in other Arab countries.58
Chapter IFinal ReportTable 4.2.1 Outward Legal Migration Stocks in Arab Mediterranean Countriesby Groups of Countries of Destination (a)DestinationcountriesCountriesof originYearArabCountriesEuropeOtherCountriesTOTALMorocco 2007 (b) 281,631 2,837,654 173,314 3,292,599Algeria 1995 66,398 991,796 14,052 1,072,246Tunisia 2008 (b) 153,256 873,947 30,594 1,057,797Egypt 2006 1,928,160 106,398 381,400 2,415,958Jordan 2008 (c) 141,202 36,432 177,634Syria 2000 (d) 130.178 130.178Lebanon 2005 (c) 187,219 109,104 258,487 554,810TOTAL (e) 2,757,866 4,918,899 1,024,457 8,701,222a) Estimates by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics indicate a number of 4,707,471 Palestinian emigrants, butthis includes all the Palestinian diaspora, the vast majority of which was born after 1948 <strong>and</strong> can hardly beconsidered as migrants. Hence we have removed Palestine from this table.b) National Background Paper (Mahjoub 2009).c) National Background Paper (Saif <strong>and</strong> El-Rayyes 2009). Due to missing statistics, “Other countries” indicates thefigure of Jordanian immigrants in Database on Immigrants in OECD Countries. According to some estimates,Jordanian emigrants could amount to 500.000.d) Syria has no official statistics for its nationals abroad. The figure of the Database on Immigrants in OED Countrieshas been included in the “Other Countries” column, but the total number of emigrants probably exceeds 1 million.e) If Palestinian, Syrian <strong>and</strong> Jordanian migrants not considered in this Table are accounted for, the total number ofAMC migrants will easily exceed the 10 million mark.Source: Fargues (2009) <strong>and</strong> National Background Papers based on national sources.In the Egyptian economy, international <strong>migration</strong> has played an important role over the last threedecades. Egypt has been a major labour exporter since the early 1970s, exporting both educated labour(mainly to the Gulf States <strong>and</strong> Libya, but also to the US, Canada <strong>and</strong> Australia) <strong>and</strong> uneducated labour(to Jordan, Lebanon <strong>and</strong> Europe) <strong>and</strong> becoming the largest labour exporter in the MENA region inabsolute terms. In 2005 according to CAPMAS there were around 2.8 million emigrants, 71% ofwhom were temporary <strong>and</strong> 29% permanent; 95% of temporary <strong>migration</strong> was to Arab countries, <strong>and</strong>less than 4% to Europe. According to the 2006 Census, there were 3.9 million Egyptians abroad in thatyear. This is 8.6% of the working-age population. According to the ELMPS 2006, 4.8% of householdshad a member of the household working overseas. However, it is important to remember that this figureunderestimates the real number since it does not include migrant households who are currently overseas;i.e. it does not include migrants with their families currently overseas.In Lebanon, it has been estimated that there was a stock of almost 560,000 first generation migrantsin 2005, i.e. close to 20% of the working-age population. It is also estimated that somewhere between15,000 <strong>and</strong> 20,000 people emigrate every year (Characteristics of Emigrants, 2000), around the samenumber of net new entrants to the labour <strong>market</strong> (which reveals a rapidly increasing <strong>migration</strong> rate).59
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