Labour market performance and migration flows - European ...

Chapter IFinal ReportAs Figure 6.3.1.1 shows, skilled migrants in Europe come mainly from North America(70% of recent immigrants are highly-skilled), and Eastern Europe (38% of recent EasternEuropeans immigrants are highly-skilled). As shown in the right column of that Figure, recentimmigration from the North Africa AMCs has not improved the situation. On the contrary, themore recent immigrants, those with less than seven years of residence in the EU destinationcountries, include a higher percentage of low-skilled migrants.Figure 6.3.1.1: Skill level of non-EU born aged 15-64 by region of origin in the EU, 2007Source: Employment in Europe 2008, p. 60In the near future, there is not doubt that Europe will need an increased inflow of skilled labour.The Commission Communication "New Skills for New Jobs. Anticipating and matching labourmarket and skills needs"48 highlighted this point in a context of economic crisis and transformation ofthe economic model. In this regard, the preparatory CEDEFOP (2008) report on Future Skill Needs inEurope, even if it was written before the current economic global recession, is relevant forunderstanding the long-term direction of European labour demand. Although the current recessionwill probably change national growth paths and will alter the sector distribution and productivity, themain findings of the modeling will not be affected. Thus, in the course of the coming five years moreskilled labour will be needed. Whichever scenario is considered, a decline in low-skill demand (-1.9%) will be compensated for by an increase in medium-skilled (1%) and even more in high-skilledlabour demand (2.4%) 49 (see Figure 6.3.2.1).This modeling considers both replacement demand induced by age exit and the additional demandderived from new job creation in the economy. Even assuming that the additional demand was moresensitive to the ongoing recession, the replacement demand, which is mainly determined by exits from48 Communication from the Commission, COM(2008) 868, 16 December 2008, http://ec.europa.eu/education/lifelong-learning-policy/doc/com868_en.pdf. See also the Staff WorkingDocument accompanying the "New Skills for New Jobs" Communication, SEC(2008) 3058, 16 December 2008, http://ec.europa.eu/education/lifelong-learning-policy/doc/sec3058_en.pdf.49 Data from CEDEFOP (2008, Table 7 in p. 60).87