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Labour market performance and migration flows - European ...

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Chapter IIIEU Migration Policy towards Arab Mediterranean Countries <strong>and</strong> its Impact on their <strong>Labour</strong> Markets2.1.4 Supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> match in the MediterraneanIn the future, Europe will undoubtedly need skilled labour. The CEDEFOP report (Future Skill Needsin Europe 2008), even if it was written before the current economic global recession, is relevant forunderst<strong>and</strong>ing the long-term direction of <strong>European</strong> labour dem<strong>and</strong>. Although the current deeprecession will probably change national growth paths <strong>and</strong> will alter sector distribution <strong>and</strong>productivity, the main findings of the modeling will not be affected. Thus, in the course of the comingfive years more skilled labour will be needed. Whichever scenario is considered, a decline in low-skilldem<strong>and</strong> (-1.9%) will be compensated for by an increase in medium- (1%) <strong>and</strong> even more in highlyskilledlabour dem<strong>and</strong> (2.4%). 167 (See Figure 2).Fig. 2 Scenarios compared: expansion dem<strong>and</strong> by qualification, 2006-15, EU-25*Source: CEDEFOP, Future Skill Needs in Europe, p. 63.167 Data refers to table 7 page 60 of the report.177

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