Newlands Cross Upgrade EIS - European Investment Bank

South Dublin County Council Newlands Cross Upgrade
Traffic Modelling: Working Paper No. 2
3. MODEL FORECASTING
2009 and 2024 were selected as scenarios to be modelled for the Newlands Cross Upgrade.
The production of 2009 and 2024 trip demand matrices for the Newlands Cross Local Area
Model was again based on cordon models extracted by the DTO from their Dublin AM Peak
Strategic Model.
Prior to the forecasting exercise, preliminary work was carried out in order to review the
demographics, infrastructure and public transport improvements in the study area to ensure
robust opening and design year forecast trip demand matrices.
3.1 Review of Demographics in the Area
Arup Consulting Engineers obtained employment, education and population data for all the
modelled zones in the study area from the DTO. These were cross checked against population
projections for South Dublin provided by SDCC.
The DTO’s projections proved to be robust as they were found to result in a slightly greater
population growth than anticipated by SDCC for the whole South Dublin, which roughly
coincides with the study area.
Information on planning applications within zones of the model in the vicinity of the
Newlands Cross or the N7 was gathered and cross checked against the DTO’s employment,
education and population data for 2009. No issues arose as a result of this exercise either.
3.2 ‘Do Minimum and ‘Do Something Networks’
2009 and 2024 networks for the Local Area Model were based on Do Minimum and Do
Something cordon model networks provided by the DTO.
3.2.1 Do Minimum
In accordance to the proposed methodology, a number of ‘Do Minimum’ road network and
public transport upgrades have been incorporated by the DTO into their Strategic Model prior
to determining the cordon matrices. The resulting Local Area SATURN models therefore
reflect changes in traffic patterns due to the anticipated public transport and road network
improvements in the local and wider areas.
The ‘Do Minimum’ network upgrades are outlined below for both the opening and design
years:
For 2009 Opening year:
• M50 Upgrade (N4 to N7 only);
• Phases 1 2 and 3 of the Dublin Outer Ring Road (DORR); and
Regarding the design year 2024, the DTO’s assumptions on road network and public transport
improvements as in their AM Peak Strategic Model have been adopted. These reflect
improvements associated with the DTO’s Platform for Change and the Government’s
Transport 21 Strategy.
3.2.2 Do Something
Regarding Do Something network upgrades to be modelled at the Newlands Cross it was
agreed that these should correspond with a free flow grade-separated N7 for both the 2009 and
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Page 5 Arup Consulting Engineers
24 March 2006