Newlands Cross Upgrade EIS - European Investment Bank

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South Dublin County Council Newlands Cross Upgrade Traffic Modelling: Working Paper No. 2 2024 scenarios, as it is considered that this option would trigger the highest level of rerouting in the study area. The above described junction upgrade has been incorporated to the DTO’s Strategic Model. The DTO provided in early January 2006 07:00 to 08:00 and 08:00 to 09:00 cordon models of their Dublin AM Peak Strategic Model for both the opening and design year scenarios. The Newlands Cross upgrade (as described above) was also incorporated to the 2009 and 2024 LAM Do Something network files. 3.3 Multimodal Effects of the Newlands Cross Upgrade The Newlands Cross currently suffers from severe congestion and delays during peaks. This situation is bound to continue in 2009 and 2024 with no improvements in place. It is generally considered that localised junction improvements such as the proposed upgrade would not result in significant modal shift leading to an increase of car use in the wider study area. Nevertheless, the expected significant decrease in delays along the N7 and R113 once the proposed grade separation is in place will result in far more attractive routes along both the N7 and R113 for potential car drivers and may therefore trigger modal shift towards car mode. In order to quantify the modal shift associated to the Newlands Cross Upgrade, it was agreed that the DTO would run their 2009 Strategic AM Peak Multimodal Model for both the Do Minimum and Do Something (Do Minimum and Newlands Cross Upgrade) cases. This exercise resulted in very similar numbers of overall vehicular trips for both Do Minimum and Do Something cordon matrices, with less than 0.5% additional vehicular trips in the Do Something case. Based on the above results, it was concluded that the proposed upgrade would not result in significant modal shift towards car use and therefore it was decided that a single trip matrix would be utilised to run the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios for both the opening and design year. A single cordon matrix was therefore produced by the DTO for the design year 2024. 3.4 2009 and 2024 LAM Matrices The DTO’s 2009 Do Minimum cordon matrix was related to the base year cordon matrix to calculate 2005 – 2009 growth for the zones in the study area. This was applied to the validated 08:00 to 09:00 2005 LAM Matrix to produce the 2009 LAM Matrix. The 2005 07:00 to 08:00 matrix was factored accordingly to produce the 2009 shoulder peak LAM matrix. Similarly, the 2024 LAM peak and shoulder peak matrices were calculated from the 2009 LAM matrices by applying factors obtaining from comparison between the 2009 and 2024 cordon matrices from the DTO model. \\DUBNTS06\DUBLIN_JOBS\D4500-D4599\D4556\4) DESIGN\11\EIS\EIS CHAPTERS\CHAPTER 5 TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT\APPENDIXA5.2 MODEL VALIDATION REPORT_ISSUE1_TEMP REV1.DOC Page 6 Arup Consulting Engineers 24 March 2006
South Dublin County Council Newlands Cross Upgrade Traffic Modelling: Working Paper No. 2 3.5 2009 Opening and 2024 Design Year Forecast Flows The 2009 and 2024 Local Area Model matrices were input into SATURN alongside the corresponding network data files for each year and scenario. The following future year SATURN runs were carried out: • 2009 Do Minimum LAM Network and 2009 LAM Matrix; • 2009 Do Something LAM Network and 2009 LAM Matrix; • 2024 Do Minimum LAM Network and 2024 LAM Matrix; • 2024 Do Something LAM Network and 2024 LAM Matrix; Sections 3.4.1 and 3.4.2 below provide an analysis of the 2009 and 2024 SATURN outputs for both the Do Minimum and Do Something cases, particularly regarding the effects on AM peak traffic of the Newlands Cross Upgrade. 3.5.1 Newlands Cross AM Peak LAM: 2009 Forecast Flows Figure 3 below presents a comparison of actual flows between the 2009 Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios, as output by SATURN. ‘Dark’ bands indicate an increase in traffic and ‘Light’ bands a decrease. The following conclusions can be drawn from this comparison: • There are two main effects that the proposed junction upgrade would have on AM peak traffic heading towards the city centre from the west: \\DUBNTS06\DUBLIN_JOBS\D4500-D4599\D4556\4) DESIGN\11\EIS\EIS CHAPTERS\CHAPTER 5 TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT\APPENDIXA5.2 MODEL VALIDATION REPORT_ISSUE1_TEMP REV1.DOC o The first of them regards traffic already making use of the N7 in the Do Minimum scenario, which with the improvements in place will be able to gain access to the M50 and other road links within the 08:00 to 09:00 time period, hence reducing peak spreading and increasing traffic volumes along these links for this particular period. o The second effect relates to eastbound traffic re-routeing onto the N7 from alternative routes. These routes are mainly the Nangor, Monastery and Ballymount Roads. At a more strategic level the model shows decreases in traffic along the N81 and some sections of the M4, although these would be relatively small. • Do Minimum 2009 AM peak forecast delays at the Newlands Cross for N7 westbound traffic are not very significant. The junction upgrade would therefore only result in minor increases in AM peak westbound traffic along the N7 (as can be seen in Figure 3). • Regarding north – south routes within the study area the model shows increased traffic volumes along the ORR to the north of the N7, as eastbound traffic from these areas will make use of this road to gain access to an improved N7. There would also be slight increases and decreases in traffic along different sections of the Fonthill and Belgard Roads. • It can also be observed that increased capacity at the Newlands Cross results in a significant decrease in eastbound traffic along Boot Road, as this is currently used as an alternative route to a congested N7. Page 7 Arup Consulting Engineers 24 March 2006
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Kildare County Council South Dublin
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South Dublin County Council N7 Newl
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Page 263 and 264: South Dublin County Council N7 Newl
Page 288: PLATES
Page 292: APPENDIX A5 - TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT
Page 295 and 296: South Dublin County Council Newland
Page 310 and 311: 0 kilometres 2 Scale N.T.S Ordnance
Page 322: APPENDIX A8 - NOISE AND VIBRATION
Page 326: APPENDIX A9 - AIR QUALITY
Page 334: APPENDIX A11 - ECOLOGY
Page 340: APPENDIX A12 - ARCHAEOLOGY, ARCHITE
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Newlands Cross Upgrade EIS - European Investment Bank

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