Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

defaults, cumulative risk assessment, and development of a framework for humanhealth risk assessment to inform decision making. The Action Plan for AdvancingHuman Health Risk Assessment will be the guide to development of the future directionof human health risk assessment at EPA. This presentation will present detailsof the Action Plan and highlight the progress to date on specific projects included inthe Action Plan.T2-G.1 Fleishman LA, Bruine de Bruin W, Morgan MG; lauren@cmu.eduCarnegie Mellon University, RAND CorporationINFORMED PUBLIC CHOICES FOR LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITYPORTFOLIOS USING A PORTFOLIO-BUILDING COMPUTER DECI-SION TOOLPublic perceptions of low-carbon electricity generating technologies, such asnuclear, wind, natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), mayaffect the feasibility of their widespread deployment as part of a national energy policy.In this study, we asked 69 members of the general public to use an interactive computertool to construct a portfolio of low-carbon electricity technologies that wouldreduce CO2 emissions while reliably meeting future increases in electricity demandfor Pennsylvania. As participants made changes to their portfolios, the tool providedimmediate feedback about projected CO2 emissions, electricity cost, as well as health,land and water impacts. Participants also received comparative and balanced informationabout the costs, risks, benefits and limitations of each of the ten electricitytechnologies. Overall, our informed participants designed diverse portfolios includingenergy efficiency, nuclear, integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) coal withCCS, natural gas and wind. While most participants included only a relatively smallamount of IGCC with CCS, natural gas and wind in their portfolio designs, they didinclude much larger amounts of nuclear and energy efficiency. Participants scoredwell on computer tool comprehension questions. Moreover, their portfolio designswere consistent over time and with the technology preferences that they providedprior to using the computer tool. Our results suggest that the computer tool and itssupplemental materials can help to educate people about the challenges the U.S. facesin trying to achieve a low-carbon energy future, and to elicit their preferences fornational energy policies.98P.64 Fleming CR, Di Giulio RT, Lambert JC; fleming.carrie@epa.govOak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Duke University, US Environmental ProtectionAgency, Cincinnati, OHUSING INFORMATION FROM ALTERNATIVE MODELS TO GUIDERESEARCH IN MIXTURES: A CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIONS BE-TWEEN POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS (PAHS) WITHDIFFERENT MECHANISMS OF ACTION IN ZEBRAFISHChemicals commonly occur in the environment in complex mixtures in whichadditive, synergistic, and antagonistic interactions can occur, potentially resulting intoxicity that is difficult to predict without knowledge about the interactions betweenthe individual chemical constituents. Experiments assessing interactions can be costlydue to the high number of treatment groups needed. Zebrafish (Danio rerio) providea useful model for such studies due to their small size, inexpensive maintenance, rapidbreeding cycle, large number of offspring, and transparent early life stages. We presenta case study using developing zebrafish to assess potential mechanisms of binaryinteractions between PAHs. PAHs have historically been assumed to act additivelyin mixtures due to the limited information about interactions between PAHs. In zebrafish,PAHs that act as aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) agonists (benzo[a]pyrene(BaP), benzo[k]fluoranthene, β-naphthoflavone) and PAHs that inhibit CYP1A activity(fluoranthene, carbazole, dibenzothiophene, 2-aminoanthracene, ^-naphthoflavone)interact synergistically to induce developmental toxicity. Inhibition of CYP1Aactivity by morpholino (antisense oligonucleotide) or by hypoxia also increases thetoxicity of some AhR agonist PAHs. However, hypoxia and CYP1A-morpholino microinjectionwere both shown to protect from the embryotoxicity of pyrene, a weakAhR agonist. There is some evidence of the relevance of these interactions in rodents.CYP1A1 knockout mice treated with BaP show elevated levels of BaP-DNAadducts, immune suppression and liver toxicity compared with wild type mice. Thiscase illustrates the utility of zebrafish as a high-throughput, inexpensive screeningtool to guide future research on mixtures in mammalian systems. The views expressedin this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views orpolicies of the US EPA.M3-J.3 Forshee RA, Simonetti A, Fernando AM; richard.forshee@fda.hhs.govUS Food and Drug AdministrationA MATHEMATICAL COMPARTMENT MODEL FOR ESTIMATINGDONOR LOSS DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTER-DONATION IN-TERVALCurrent policy in the United States requires donors of a red blood cell unit towait at least 56 days between blood donations to allow adequate red cell recovery, andreduce the risk of anemia among frequent donors. Recent Blood Products AdvisoryCommittee (BPAC) meetings have discussed the risks and benefits of increasing the