Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

These fourteen pathogens account for over 95% of the foodborne illness for whichpathogen causes have been identified. The study estimates that these pathogens cause$14.1 billion in cost of illness and loss of 61,000 QALYs each year. The study alsodeveloped estimates of the fraction of these illnesses associated with specific foods.This food attribution exercise shows that the burden of foodborne illness with in theU.S. with known pathogen cause is highly concentrated. The highest ranking 10 food/pathogen combinations are responsible for $8.2 billion in cost of illness and loss of36,915 QALYs.T3-I.2 Hollenkamp L, Kuzma J; kuzma007@umn.eduHumphrey School of Public Affairs, University of MinnesotaRISK GOVERNANCE OF NANO-GEOENGINEERINGGeoengineering includes the large-scale and intentional manipulation of climateand is under consideration to counteract anthropogenic climate change. Nanotechnologyis another emerging technology involving the manipulation of matter at theatomic and molecular scales to impart novel properties. To our knowledge, no formalstudies of risk governance for the convergence of nanotechnology and geoengineering(NanoGeo) have been conducted. This paper’s goals are to explore the convergenceof NanoGeo, examine risk analysis and societal issues pertaining to it, andultimately assess the adequacy of existing international governance frameworks thatmay be applicable to the marriage of these two novel and rapidly-developing fields.Three analytical frameworks are used for our analysis. First, an upstream oversightassessment (UOA) approach is employed to examine how references to nanotechnologyhave emerged in geoengineering literature and media, and to select relevant casestudies of NanoGeo for further analysis. Second, existing and potentially-relevantinternational governance mechanisms are identified and judged based upon a multicriteriadecision analysis (MCDA) approach to determine their applicability and effectivenessfor risk governance of the NanoGeo case studies and NanoGeo morebroadly. Finally, the International Risk Governance Council’s (IRGC) framework forstakeholder involvement is used to assess the adequacy of international governancemechanisms for dealing with complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity associated withNanoGeo.P.6 Hong T, Gurian PL; th339@drexel.eduDrexel UniversityIDENTIFIABILITY OF BIOAEROSOL SIZE FRACTION FROM ENVI-RONMENTAL SAMPLINGIn the aftermath of a release of a microbiological agent, environmental samplingmust be conducted to characterize the release sufficiently so that mathematicalmodels can then be used to predict the subsequent dispersion and human healthrisks. Because both the dose-response and environmental transport of aerosolizedmicrobiological agents are functions of the effective aerodynamic diameter of the118particles, environmental sampling should identify not only the total amount of agentbut also the size distribution of the aerosolized particles. In this study a completelymixed compartment model is evaluated for the identifiability the amounts of differentsize fractions of particles initially released. Different sampling schemes are consideredand condition numbers are calculated to assess the identifiability of the initial release.The results indicate that if samples are taken in a single well-mixed room then neithera 4-particle-size model nor a 3-particle-size model can be identified by aggregate samplingof available environmental compartments. If sampling is extended to a secondroom, which has been contaminated by air flow through the HVAC system, then it isstill not possible to identify a 4-particle-size model. However, it is possible to identifya 3-particle-size model. The three particle sizes proposed for modeling are 1 m;m particulates,which would account for much of the risk outside the building due to theirpotential for long range transport, 3-5 mm particles which are respirable but are removedmore readily by deposition and HVAC filters than smaller particles, and 10 mmparticles which are not readily respirable and settle relatively quickly. Modeling thesethree categories is proposed as a means to distinguish between the hazards posed bydifferent sizes of aerosols while reducing model complexity to a point where necessaryinputs can be identified by aggregate sampling methods.P.119 Hosono H, Kumagai Y, Sekizaki T; hiromix@isas.a.u-tokyo.ac.jpThe University of TokyoJAPANESE CONSUMERS’ RISK PERCEPTION O BEEF: THE EFFECTOF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONThe Tohoku earthquake and Tsunami on March 11, 2011 and the followingaccident at Fukushima 1st Nuclear Power Plant affected a lot on Japanese daily lifeand future perspective. Soon after the explosion of the nuclear plant, public concernon radiation risk has spread. Radioactive iodine and cesium that exceed the regulatinglevel has detected since March 19th from variety of vegetables fruits, and animalproducts especially at the surrounding area of the power plant. Measures have beentaken to ensure that such foods are not supplied to the public to eat, however consumeranxious about the risk and hesitate to buy food from the affected area. In thisproject, we’re trying to investigate the following topics; 1) Consumer knowledge onradioactive, BSE and E.coli O157. 2) Comparative risk level of radiation among foodrelated risks 3) The condition that affect beef purchasing behavior 4) Develop a communicationtool on radiation risk in beef through participatory method.