Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

T4-E Symposium: Food Safety Risk Prioritization and Decision AnalysisIncreasing concerns regarding food safety in the U.S. has led to new legislationthat affects producers and suppliers at all levels of the supply chain andhelps increase protection for consumers. The Food Safety Modernization Act,signed into law on January 4, 2011, includes provisions to prevent, detect, andrespond to food safety problems. The law calls for a risk-based approach thatestablishes priorities, targets significant food safety risks, and minimizes foodborneillness, a strategy that was advocated in the 2010 report released by theInstitute of Medicine and National Research Council, Enhancing Food Safety:The Role of the Food and Drug Administration. Consequently, there is anurgent need for decision frameworks and associated methods/tools/data thatcan be used to (1) rank risks for food commodities and hazards; (2) establishpriorities based on public health impacts and other non-health related consequences;(3) compare the feasibility, efficacy, and cost effectiveness of variousmitigation options; and (4) develop an optimal strategy to allocate resources toreduce the burden of foodborne disease. This symposium will focus on ongoingand recent research into methods, models, and data that can be used tosupport science-based decision making, prioritizing hazard-commodity risksusing decision attributes relevant to public health outcomes and policy objectives.The symposium will provide an overview of a prototype decision supportsystem recently completed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration,and highlight recent research in the risk ranking/prioritization methods thatis critical in the decision-making process. Key issues that will be addressedinclude the importance of developing quality data, the advantages and disadvantagesof “top down” versus “bottom up” approaches, and the integrationof risk-based metrics with non-risk metrics within a decision-making context.T4-I Symposium: Global Catastrophic RiskGlobal catastrophic risks (GCRs) are risks of events that could significantlyharm or even destroy civilization at the global scale. GCRs are thusrisks of the highest magnitude, regardless of probability. Major GCRs includeclimate change, pandemics, nuclear warfare, and potential new technologies.This symposium features diverse perspectives on how to effectively assess andrespond to GCRs through research, policy, and other means.WEDNESDAYW1-A Symposium: How the Public Responds to Different Disasters overTime: The Role of Perceived Risk, Emotion and Risk CommunicationTo understand the underlying dynamics of public response amidst a crisiswe need to observe how perceived risk, emotion, and risk-related behaviorsemerge and co-vary over time. Specifically, we must examine their trajectories,that is, how these factors escalate, peak and then decline. We also need toconsider their potential consequences, and the mitigating role of risk communication.This session will discuss findings from studies that include terrorism,technological accidents and natural disasters. Reports are drawn from casestudies, simulated scenarios and longitudinal surveys following actual events.Methodological challenges will be discussed. Recommendations for risk andcrisis communication will be offered.W1-B Symposium: Analytical Approaches to Food Safety ManagementThe USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service is exploring quantitativerisk assessment methodologies to incorporate the use of Codex Alimentarius’newly adopted risk management metrics. Traditionally, regulated food processingsystems have relied on process control and performance standards toachieve a safe and wholesome product. In the past, such measures have notbeen associated with public heath outcomes and therefore the impact not easilymeasured. However, the use of quantitative microbiological risk assessmenthas allowed linking of public health outcomes due to consumption with theproduct’s microbiological status at the processing establishment. To improvepublic health and the sanitary situation in member countries, the World TradeOrganization agreed to sanitary and phytosanitary measures including the AppropriateLevel of Protection (ALOP, risk of illness per serving), and the recentlyadopted risk management metrics Food Safety Objective (FSO, cfu/g atconsumption) and Performance Objectives (PO, cfu/g at designated controlpoints in the food process). By hypothesizing various levels of acceptable risk,risk assessment can be used to link these public health outcomes with bacteriallevels in food at the point of processing and ultimately establish the stringencyof a food safety process. However, the practical application of using risk assessmentfor this purpose and the development of the methodological toolshas only recently garnered attention. To meet the need to develop tools toestablish these new food safety metrics, two examples were developed: Listeriamonocytogenes in ready-to-eat (RTE) deli meats and Salmonella and Campylobacterin chicken. By modifying these risk assessments, we demonstrate47