Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

ing the potential carcinogenicity of naphthalene, DoD is developing technology tobetter inform leadership on the scope of the exposure issue. To increase confidenceabout the scope of exposure to naphthalene among fuel handlers, DoD is conductingresearch and development (R&D) on a personal dosimeter and will use this dosimeterto conduct an exposure assessment. The uncertainty surrounding the final regulatorydecision on naphthalene’s toxicity persists even as the R&D continues. The case ofnaphthalene provides an excellent example of how enterprise wide risk managementis needed to balance this dual track. The case of naphthalene is informative for riskmanagers because it demonstrates management of the time gap between risk identificationand the development of potential RMAs and the need to plan for and balanceR&D efforts with regulatory developments.W2-C.1 Reiss R, Johnston J, DeSesso J, Tucker K; rreiss@exponent.comExponentPESTICIDE RESIDUES ON FOOD: A MOUNTAIN OR A MOLE HILLHealth effects from pesticide residues on food are often alleged in the mediaand from advocacy groups. Additionally, recent epidemiologic studies have associateddecrements in intelligence quotient (IQ) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD) with pesticide exposures, though not specifically with pesticide residues.However, pesticide residues are usually less than one-millionth of the food mass, andfruit and vegetable consumption has well established benefits. This paper addressesthe potential for pesticide residues to cause health effects using standard risk assessmentmethodologies and through an evaluation of the biological plausibility of someof the epidemiologic findings. An estimate of cancer risk from pesticides in fruitsand vegetables is presented using the most extensive residue and food consumptiondatabases available in the United States. These estimates are compared with estimatesof cancer avoided through the consumption of fruits and vegetables based on epidemiologystudies comparing cancer incidence with diet. Additionally, epidemiologicstudies of health effects of pesticides are analyzed to consider the biological plausibilityof the associations, possible confounding, and the relevance of pesticide residueexposure to other pesticide exposure pathways.T2-E.3 Renn O, Jovanovic A, Schroeter R; Ortwin.renn@sowi.uni-stuttgart.deStuttgart UniversityUSING THE CONCEPT OF SYSTEMIC RISKS TO APPROACH SOCIALUNRESTIn this paper we develop a framework of social unrest based on a complexunderstanding of systemic risk. The term ‘systemic’ describes the extent to whichany risk is embedded in the larger contexts of social and cultural aspects that shapeour understanding of risk, influence our attention to causal relationships and triggerour activities for handling these risks. Social unrest can be grouped into this frameworkof systemic risks. It can be a cause of risk to others, it can be a consequence of162experienc-ing risk (for example a terrorist threat) or the manifestation of such a risk(the actual terrorist attack) or it can be a promoter of a risk chain that is located inother functional systems of society (for example financial crisis). Since social unrest ismore a process of escalation than a finite state of the world we have conceptualizedthe term in from of a step-by-step escalation scheme. Each step makes social unrestmore likely and also if it then occurs more severe. In the course of this process, activitiesmay get more and more radical, in particular if these collective protest actionsare ignored or even oppressed (examples may be wild strikes, regional boycotts orblockades).M2-G.4 Restrepo O; agorozco@uninorte.edu.coUniversidad del NorteRISK CULTURE: LOCAL RESPONSES TO GLOBAL THREATS. TRANS-FORMING VULNERABILITIES INTO CAPABILITIESThis research pursues to analyze and explain how societies select which risks toface and which to ignore, based on the cultural theory of risk perception by whichrisk are socially selected. Therefore we make a distinction of two types of risk: naturaland anthropic. Based on this distinction, we emphasized how community consensusperceives, selects and accepts each type of risk according to culture and the factorsthat influence on communities’ vulnerability. As a result, the present research aims togenerate awareness about risk, provide a guide for disaster risk reduction in vulnerablecommunities and develop an integrated approach for risk management and riskresponse, which includes culture as a key component to understand risk dynamics,face threats and reduce the propensity to vulnerability. The research was conductedon three levels: on the first level is developed a theoretical framework for understandingthe concepts of risk, threat, vulnerability and culture as well as the connectionbetween disasters and development. On the second level was selected the ColombianCaribbean Region as case study where were created synergies around risk culturewith vulnerable communities and stakeholders, from which we found that academy,humanitarian community and policy-makers work independently, generating duplicationof the information and a lack of coordination in research. Based on the resultsof the preceding levels, on the third level takes place the socialization of the researchthrough the implementation of a training program on Vulnerability Prevention andRisk Culture Promotion and the publication of a Manual for an Integrated DisasterRisk Management.