Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

T3-H.2 Montello BM, Shroy BC, Buchta DA, Hawkins BE, Gooding R, KolakowskiJ, McGarvey D; montellob@battelle.orgBattelle Memorial Institute, DHS CSACCHEMICAL SUPPLY CHAIN INCIDENT MODEL FOR HUMANHEALTH CONSEQUENCE ESTIMATESChemical incidents, such as the methyl isocyanate incident in Bhopal, India, thehydrogen sulfide incident in Chongqing, China, and the chlorine rail car accidents inGraniteville, South Carolina have demonstrated consequences of releases along thechemical supply chain (CSC). Additionally, media hype combined with exaggerationor misinterpretation of consequence assessments may increase the likelihood of a terroristattack on chemical industry. In response, the Chemical Security Analysis Centerof the Department of Homeland Security has developed the Chemical InfrastructureRisk Assessment to quantify the risks associated with terrorist attacks on the CSC. Inorder to quantify risk, human health consequences were estimated from releases andsubsequent dispersion of toxic industrial chemicals from targets, such as chemicalproduction facilities, bulk highway transport vehicles, rail cars, barges, and pipelines.To that end, an outdoor inhalation consequence model that incorporates key aspectsof source terms, plume dispersion, meteorology, population modeling, and releaselocation was developed. High resolution geographic information systems (GIS) populationdensity and land usage data (e.g., roads, rail lines, and navigable waterways),combined with a predictive meteorological map capable of estimating the likelihoodof meteorological conditions, allowed for accurate location of CSC releases and theoverlaying of dispersion plumes on populations to calculate human exposures. Dispersionplumes were extracted from Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability softwareusing an interpolative lookup table algorithm that dynamically created a libraryof exposure isopleths over a range of continuous and discrete dimensions. The generalframework allows for many future applications, such as estimating the risk alongan entire rail-line or reduction in risk caused by new policy restricting on tanker truckscarrying hazardous materials around specific urban areas.M2-I.4 Morgan KM, Spires C, Golden N, Zablotsky-Kufel J, Cole D, HoekstraM; kara.morgan@fda.hhs.govUS FDAINTRODUCTION TO THE INTERAGENCY FOOD SAFETY ANALYT-ICS COLLABORATIONA combination of the great uncertainty surrounding information about attributionand the importance of this information to inform and evaluate risk-baseddecision making at the regulatory agencies has lead to a shared interest among federalagencies in having defensible attribution information. In order to focus the work ofthe collaboration, each agency wrote a statement of needs for attribution. The areasof overlap among the three agencies were identified as the priority areas for IFSAC148to focus on. This session will provide background on the development of IFSACE,and review the Strategic Plan developed to describe the needs and the proposed pathforward.W3-G.3 Mukherjee D, Bandera E, Buckley B, Isukapalli SS; dwaipayan.chem@gmail.comEnvironmental & Occupational Health Sciences InstitutePHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED TOXICOKINETIC MODELING OFZEARALENONE AND ZERANOL: ESTIMATING DIETARY EXPO-SURE AND TOXICITY FOR INDIVIDUALS AT RISKZearalenone (ZEA) and its metabolite zeranol (ZAL) are fungal contaminantspresent in food crops and are known to be estrogen agonists. A novel PhysiologicallyBased Toxicokinetic (PBTK) model for zearalenone and zeranol and their primarymetabolites zearalenol and zearalanone in urine has been developed for humans withthe help of mechanistic data and parameter values from the literature. Zearalenone, amycotoxin produced by Fusarium fungi is a widespread contaminant in grains, fruits,vegetables, and their products or by carryover to animal tissues, milk, and eggs afterintake of contaminated feedstuff. Exposure to zearalenone has been estimated fromdaily intake values for different dietary habits in the population. Zeranol, which is ametabolite of zearalenone in mammals, and is 5-6 times more potent than estrogen,is also added as a growth additive in beef in the US and Canada. The combined exposureto both compounds from dietary intake has been estimated based on dietary dataof USA across various population segments and their toxicokinetics has been modeledin humans. The PBTK model considers oral intake doses received through dailyfood intake and explicitly models the metabolism in the gastrointestinal and hepaticsystems causing changes in the final cumulative toxic effects. Metabolic events likedehydrogenation and glucuronidation, which have direct effects on the accumulationand elimination of the toxic compounds, have been quantified. The model uses invitrometabolic data and applies them to the whole body model based on individualhepatic enzyme contents. The PBTK model considers urinary and fecal excretion andbiliary recirculation and compares the predicted biomarkers of blood, urinary andfecal concentrations with published experimental results. The model developed herecan be used for better understanding the health effects due to daily dietary exposureto Fusarium mycotoxins, especially in pre-pubertal females.M3-A.1 Mumpower JL, Shi L, Vedlitz A; jmumpower@bushschool.tamu.eduTexas A&M UniversityPERCEIVED RISKINESS AND WTP OF FOUR TERRORIST THREATSA 2009 national telephone survey of 924 U.S. adults focused on perceptionsof terrorism/homeland security issues. Respondents rated severity of effects, levelof understanding, number affected, and likelihood of four terrorist threats: poisonedwater supply; explosion of a small nuclear device; an airline attack similar to 9/11; and