Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

same scientists’ environmental health and safety (EHS) publication records. First, wecompare those scientists with at least one EHS publication to those without any EHSpublications on a number of demographic and attitudinal variables. The results showthat scientists with EHS publications are not markedly different from scientists withoutsuch publications. Next, we inserted this information into a pair of hierarchicalordinary least squares regressions predicting attitudes toward nanotechnology regulationsand the communication of scientific findings. Our results confirm that the nanoscientistswith EHS publications are generally the same people pushing for revisednano regulations. More importantly, our findings show that these same scientists arealso more supportive of the immediate communication of scientific findings with thegeneral public. This latter point suggests an avenue for EHS risk information to findits way into public discourse and is the focal point of our study.P.67 Cakmak S, Dales R, Leech J, Liu L; sabit_cakmak@hc-sc.gc.caHealth CanadaTHE INFLUENCE OF AIR POLLUTION ON CARDIOVASCULAR ANDPULMONARY FUNCTION AND EXERCISE CAPACITY: CANADIANHEALTH MEASURES SURVEY (CHMS)Background. Air pollution has been associated with adverse cardiovascular effects.Objective. To measure the association between air pollution, spirometry, bloodpressure, and exercise capacity. Methods. We used data from 5604 subjects collectedduring the Canada Health Measures Survey to test the association between air pollutionmeasured on the day of the survey and spirometry (n=5011 subjects), bloodpressure, and exercise capacity (n=3789 subjects). Results. An interquartile increasein ozone (17.0 ppb) was associated with a 0.883% higher resting heart rate, a 0.718%higher systolic and 0.407% higher diastolic blood pressure, a 0.393% lower FEV1/FVC expressed as a percentage of predicted, and a 1.52% reduction in the aerobicfitness score (p < 0.05). NO 2and PM 2.5 were associated with higher resting diastolicand systolic blood pressure and lower percent predicted FEV1 (p< 0.05). An increasein PM 2.5 was associated with a decrease in percent predicted FVC. Conclusion.Exposure to higher concentrations of air pollution was associated with higher restingblood pressure, lower ventilatory function, and for higher ozone, lower aerobicfitness.T4-D.5 Calder RSD, Schmitt KA, Salazar-Garcia OE; r_cald@civil.concordia.caConcordia UniversityDECISION MODEL FOR MANAGEMENT OF SEWAGE PLUMES IN ATIDAL ENVIRONMENTWe propose a decision model for the management of degraded water qualityin a tidal environment. The complex and unsteady hydrodynamics of estuaries andtidal rivers greatly complicates water quality assessment and prediction and hence impactvaluation and decision-making. A rational analysis requires an understanding ofunderlying hydrodynamics, principles of water quality in unsteady environments, impactvaluation methods and decision analysis techniques. Two-dimensional numericalmodels of sewage plumes in tidal environments illustrate the high sensitivity of waterquality to input parameters such as seasonal stratification and tidal condition thatvary continuously with time. Probabilistic methods are needed to translate discretesnapshots of water quality under time-variable conditions into a quantitative, constantdescription of water quality that can be used to evaluate the costs of ecological andeconomic impacts. As inputs, we use output of a numerical water quality model ofBurrard Inlet near Vancouver, Canada, under discrete combinations of input conditions.We use probabilistic methods to weight the discrete snapshots of sewageplumes into an overall description of water quality. We then use impact valuationmethods to approximate the environmental and economic costs of the water qualitymodel output. In order to allow for comparison of management alternatives in termsof each one’s net costs (infrastructure investment and the associated ecological andeconomic impacts), we nest the quality/impact valuation model into a decision analysisframework. We explore expansion of the quality and impact valuation model inthe direction of stochastic hydrodynamic models that will allow for consideration ofuncertain model parameters with no periodicity such as wind shear. Our preliminaryresults indicate that the greatest source of decision uncertainty lies in the valuation ofsewage impacts, rather than the water quality model.W2-I.2 Calkin DE, Wibbenmeyer MJ, Hand MS, Thompson MP, Venn TJ; decalkin@fs.fed.usUS Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, The University of MontanaRISK PREFERENCES AND PROBABILITY WEIGHTING IN STRATE-GIC WILDFIRE DECISION-MAKING: A CHOICE EXPERIMENT OFUS WILDFIRE MANAGERSIn the United States, wildland fire events are managed for numerous competingobjectives in an environment of considerable uncertainty and political pressure. Federalwildfire management policy dictates that the magnitude of suppression responseshould be commensurate with the values at risk, and has embraced risk managementas the appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Therefore significant effortshave been directed towards development of decision support systems capable of assistingmanagers in assessing and managing wildfire risk. Economic theory suggeststhat over repeated wildfire events, a policy of risk neutrality will generate optimalwildfire management outcomes. Nevertheless, it is well-established that human factors,including sociopolitical constraints and pressures, incentives facing fire managers,and decision biases, have substantial influence over the ways in which individualfire events are managed. In particular, fire managers may be risk averse and may overweightlow probability events within their decision analysis. Over time, such behavioris likely to lead to inefficient uses of fire management resources. This paper uses a71