Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

W2-I.1 Woodard JD, Pavlista AD, Schnitkey GD, Burgener PA, Ward KA; woodardjoshua@gmail.comCornell University/Texas A&M University, University of Nebraska, University of Illinois,Windsor Strategy PartnersMODELING SKIP-ROW CORN RISK USING EXPERIMENTAL TRIALDATA: PRODUCTION, INSURANCE, AND ECONOMIC IMPLICA-TIONSSkip-row planting practices-which may more efficiently ration soil moisture tocrops throughout the growing season-are sometimes employed in the production ofdryland crops in drought-prone areas, and have the potential to reduce risk and enhanceyields relative to conventional fully planted practices when moisture conditionsare suboptimal. The United States Department of Agriculture-Risk ManagementAgency (USDA-RMA)-the agency which administers the Federal Crop InsuranceProgram-began offering insurance for skip-row corn in selected areas in 2008, however,several concerns arose about how insurance for this practice should be appropriatelytreated. The purpose of this study is to assess the risk and production characteristicsof skip-row corn relative to conventional practices in the Central GreatPlains region, focusing on both yield distribution impacts and economic implicationsfor insurance programs and technology adoption. Since skip-row practices are newto the region, experience data are limited. To alleviate this problem, side-by-sideskip-row corn agronomic trial data (N=270) are augmented with a large producerlevel dataset consisting 130,080 conventional yield observations from 1996-2008 byemploying a multivariate nonparametric simulation technique to derive skip-row yielddistributions and insurance rates. Adoption of skip-row practices is found to increasemean yields and limit the severity of yield losses in areas prone to drought, and alsoresult in reductions in expected insurance indemnities in excess of 50% in typicalcases. The insurance rules currently in use by the USDA-RMA are also evaluatedand found to have market-distorting impacts which crowd-out skip-row technologyadoption, which results in increased risk exposure to the government, producers, andprivate insurers. From an economic and actuarial standpoint, this is troubling sinceit opens the door adverse selection and other market distortions and inefficiencies.W3-E.4 Wu F, Liu Y, Khlangwiset P; few8@pitt.eduUniversity of PittsburghGLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE CAUSED BY FOODBORNE TOXINS:USE OF BIOMARKERS VS. DIETARY RECALL AND MARKET SAM-PLESFoodborne toxins, including metals and metalloids as well as toxins of fungal,bacterial, and algal origin, can cause acute and chronic diseases in humans worldwide.Until recently, human exposure to foodborne toxins was measured almost exclusivelyin one of two ways: by questionnaires relying on recall of what and how much had196been eaten, or by measurement of food samples that ideally were representative oftrue exposures. Both of these ways pose potential problems. Dietary recall is often inaccurate,and it can be difficult in many cultures worldwide to take food samples thataccurately represent exposure. In recent years, however, biomarkers to assess foodbornetoxin exposure and effect have been developed, and are increasingly used toestimate human exposures. A case study is described in attempting to estimate globalburden of human disease caused by aflatoxin, a carcinogenic mycotoxin commonin maize and peanuts worldwide. Obtaining accurate exposure estimates in differentcountries is the most difficult part of the risk assessment. In the future, if biomarkersamples can be gathered more easily from populations worldwide, the quality of humanhealth risk assessment from dietary toxins will be much improved. However,collection and interpretation of biomarkers pose new challenges to risk assessment.These will be discussed in light of physical, cultural, and technological issues.P.116 Xu LY, Shu X; xly@bnu.edu.cnState Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment,Beijing Normal University, ChinaAGGREGATE RISK ASSESSMENT OF INHALABLE PARTICLE MAT-TERAggregate risk of inhalable particle matters is an important consideration inurban area because of the potential for harm and serious disadvantages. The destructionof ecosystems and environmental disasters can occur when the pollutant is hiddenand allowed to aggregate in living creature’ body to high levels. As the sink andsource of atmospheric particle matter pollutants in urban environment, the urbandust can be used as a useful indicator of local air pollutants’ transport, deposition andaggregation. The present paper measures concentration of PAHs of 13 dust samples,which are collected to represents different conditions of three basic aspects of human’sdaily life: travelling, living and dining, The toxic equivalency factors (TEFs)were used to calculate benzo[a]pyrene equivalents ( EBaP) for dust samples to assessthe aggregate human health risk of atmospheric particle in daily life. The result of riskassessment indicated that the highest potential health risk of PAHs is found in dustsample of the room under decoration, and the lowest in elevator.T2-A.1 Yang JZ, Kahlor L; zyang5@buffalo.eduSUNY-BuffaloWHAT, ME WORRY? THE ROLE OF AFFECT IN INFORMATIONSEEKINGBased on an augmented version of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing(RISP) Model, this study compares four path models to examine how RISP componentsaccount for individuals’ intention to seek or avoid risk information relatedto climate change. To further theory development, we examine both positive andnegative affect in their influence on information seeking and avoiding. Overall, infor-