Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

W4-A.1 Boerner FU, Jardine C, Driedger M; borner@ualberta.caUniversity of Alberta, University of ManitobaH1N1 - CREDIBILITY OF TRADITIONAL HEALTH INFORMATIONSOURCES AND WEB 2.0 INFORMATION IN ALBERTAThe H1N1 pandemic in 2009 provides a unique opportunity to study traditionalhealth information sources vs. the upcoming Web 2.0 as an avenue to communicatehealth risks to the general public. The objective of this study was to determine thesources of information used by the Alberta public during the H1N1 outbreak andvaccination program, and how useful and credible they found these various informationsources. A random digit dialled telephone survey was conducted of 1,203 Albertansin May to July 2010. Respondents were asked to rate their use of various informationsources, including newspapers, television, radio, Internet, social networkingsites, HealthLinks, doctors, other health professionals (both known and unknown)and friends and relatives. They were further asked to rate these sources on their usefulnessand credibility. Degree of worry during the event and at the time of the surveywas also assessed. The most widely used information source was television, followedby the Internet, newspapers, radio, known health professionals and friends or relatives.The most useful and credible sources were doctors, known health professionals,HealthLinks and the Internet. Most people (74% of respondents) felt they kneweverything they needed or wanted to know about H1N1. Half of the respondents(51%) were not worried about H1N1 during the outbreak; 86% were not worried atthe time of the survey. Despite the advent of social media, conventional media (e.g.television, newspapers) and passive internet usage remain the most common sourcesof information. However, conventional media sources are not generally rated as themost useful or credible. Implication for future pandemic communication efforts willbe discussed.T3-I.1 Borsuk ME, Ding P, Gerst MD, Bernstein A, Howarth RB; mark.borsuk@dartmouth.eduDartmouth CollegeINTERNATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN RISK TOLERANCE AND IM-PLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE POLICYEvaluation of public policies with uncertain outcomes requires an accuratecharacterization of social preferences regarding risk. Unfortunately, the preferencemodels used in most integrated assessments of climate policy do not adequately describethe risk attitudes revealed by typical investment decisions. Here, we adopt anempirical approach to social preference description using global historical data oninvestment returns and the occurrence of rare economic disasters. We improve onearlier analyses by employing a Bayesian inference procedure that allows for nationspecificestimates of disaster probabilities and preference parameters. This provides astronger test of the underlying investment model than provided by global calibrations64and generates some compelling hypotheses for further study. Specifically, results suggestthat society is substantially more averse to risk than typically assumed in integratedassessment models of climate change. Additionally, there appear to be systematicdifferences in risk preferences among nations. We use a recently-developed model ofmulti-attribute negotiation to explore the implications of these international differenceson the chances of reaching a global climate treaty.W2-H.4 Bostrom A, Hudson R, Lazo J, Morss R, DeMuth J; abostrom@u.washington.eduUniversity of WashingtonWARNING DECISIONS IN EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: FORE-CASTERS’ PERCEPTIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON HURRICANEFORECASTS, WARNINGS, DECISIONS AND RISKSMost forecast and warning information for hurricanes and flash floods originatesin the hydrometeorological community. Weather researchers and forecasterstend to focus on analysis of hydrometeorological data, forecast production, and forecastdissemination as the primary function of their professional responsibilities. Althoughthey are interested in communicating forecasts in ways that aid effective decisionmaking, the expertise and data necessary to support this is lacking. Because ofthis limited focus, most members of the hydrometeorological community currentlyhave limited understanding of how the information they provide is and could be usedby individual and organizational decision makers. This lack of understanding significantlylimits researchers’ and forecasters’ ability to provide information encouragingappropriate decision making and self-protective action in extreme weather events(e.g., Morss et al. 2005). To begin to address this gap, this paper reports forecasters’understanding and perceptions of the hurricane forecast and warning system. Basedon individual mental models interviews and a group decision modeling session withforecasters from the National Hurricane Center and the Miami-Dade Weather ForecastOffice, the study explores how forecasters (a) conceptualize hurricanes (includingexposure, effects, mitigation), use information in creating warnings, and then communicatehurricane warnings, and (b) perceive how flash flood forecast and warninginformation (including uncertainty) is interpreted and used by public officials, mediapersonnel and the general public. Findings are summarized in the form of a decisionfocusedmodel of the forecast and warning system. As anticipated, forecasters’ hurricanehazard and risk perceptions differ by level of experience, are detailed with regardto storm development and tracking and sparse with regard to the physical and socialconsequences of storms.