Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

P.15 Cox J, McGarvey D, Whitmire M, Hawkins B, Montello B, Shroy B; jessica.cox@dhs.govDHS Chemical Security Analysis Center, Battelle Memorial InstituteTHE CHEMICAL TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENTThe Department of Homeland Security’s Chemical Security Analysis Center(CSAC) is responsible for science based knowledge management and characterizationof chemical risk to the nation from a terrorist event. In this capacity, the CSAC hasbeen tasked with conducting a biennial assessment of risk associated with such anevent. In 2008, the CSAC published the inagural Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment(CTRA). The CTRA is a probablilistic risk assessment that allows the threat,vulnerability, consequences, mitigation techniques and their associated uncertaintiesto be processed together to yield a comprehensive risk to the nation for the compoundsof concern. In 2008, the risk from 57 chemicals was assessed; in 2010 the listgrew to 100 chemicals. For the 2012 iteration of the CTRA, a total of 137 chemicalswill be analyzed. These chemicals include chemical warfare agents, toxic industrialchemicals, and other chemicals of high concern. The results from the CTRA aidspolicy makers and other officials in making risk informed decisions regarding detectors,countermeasures, consequence management plans, and capabilities; the resultsalso help identify crucial knowledge gaps for future research. This poster will givean overview of the methodology being utilized to conduct the 2012 CTRA includingchemical listing, potential targets, scenarios, and dissemination techniques that makeup this end-to-end probabilistic risk assessment.W3-I.1 Cox LA; tcoxdenver@aol.comCox Associates, University of ColoradoREASSESSING THE EVIDENCE ON HEALTH BENEFITS OF CLEAN-ING AIREPA recently estimated that the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment (CAAA) producesestimated human health benefits far greater than its compliance costs. In theyear 2020, for example, EPA projects health benefits from reduced mortality valuedat nearly two trillion dollars, for compliance costs of 65 billion (0.065 trillion) dollars.Although compliance costs are real, the health benefits are hypothetical: theydepend on a series of uncertain assumptions. Among these are that there is a 100%probability that a positive, linear, no-threshold, causal relation exists between PM2.5concentration and increased mortality risk; and that progress in medicine and diseaseprevention will not diminish this relationship. We present an alternative uncertaintyanalysis that assigns a positive probability of error to each major assumption. Thisdiscrete uncertainty analysis suggests (with probability > 99% under plausible alternativeassumptions) that the costs of CAAA far exceed its benefits. Thus, instead ofsuggesting to policy makers that CAAA benefits are almost certainly far larger thanits costs, we believe that accuracy requires acknowledging that a relatively certain cost82purchases a relatively uncertain, and possibly much smaller, benefit. The differencebetween these contrasting conclusions is driven by different approaches to uncertaintyanalysis, i.e., excluding or including discrete uncertainties about the main assumptionsrequired for non-zero health benefits to exist at all.P.3 Cragin DW, Silverman KC; david_cragin@merck.comMerck & Co.CHINA’S NEWLY PROMULGATED REGULATION ON THE ENVI-RONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OF NEW CHEMICAL SUBSTANCESPioneered in 1976 in the USA with passage of TSCA, the requirement to evaluatenew chemicals for potential human and ecological risks is now commonplaceamong nations around the world. Many nations are adopting or enhancing regulationson new and existing chemical substances. In 2010, Chinas Ministry of EnvironmentalProtection promulgated and implemented an update of their previousregulation for new chemical substances with the issuance of Ministry Order No. 7,Regulations on the Environmental Management of New Chemical Substances. Theregulation uses a tiered risk-based approach that requires increasingly more mammalianand ecotoxicological testing of new compounds as yearly production volumesincrease. Simplified and Research filings are allowed for volumes less than one ton/year. The wealth of data on new chemical substances that will be created from thisand similar regulations will be valuable to industry and regulators in assessing andcommunicating potential risks associated with new chemicals and their effects on humanhealth and the environment. The poster will discuss the use of a managementsystem approach to facilitate compliance.W2-A.4 Cuite CL, McWilliams RM, Hallman WK; cuite@aesop.rutgers.eduRutgers, The State University of New JerseyREASSURING THE PUBLIC AFTER A CONTAMINATION INCIDENT:PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF MICROBIOLOGICAL TESTING AND RE-CONDITIONED FOOD PRODUCTSAfter a foodborne illness outbreak or recall resulting from microbial contamination,public confidence in the safety of the affected products tends to drop. A nationalInternet survey of 1,204 American adults was used to understand consumer perceptionsof two potential approaches to restoring confidence - microbial testing to ensurethat products are unlikely to contain pathogens, and further processing the foodproducts through cooking or pasteurization to make them safe to consume (reconditioning).To understand perceptions of microbiological testing, an experiment wasconducted, using a 2 (numeric format of testing information) X 3 (production level offood company) X 2 (company’s history of recalls) mixed design. Using ground beefand eggs as cases, the results indicate that while there was no effect of the company’srecall history, both the numeric format of the testing information and the productionlevel of the company affect how much testing the public believes should be done. In