Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

choices. This work examines these surveys and their results in the context of theApril 27, 2011, tornado outbreak that killed 238 people in Alabama (part of the 3-dayoutbreak the National Weather Service calls the Southern States Outbreak Sequence,which killed 339 people). The research team administered a survey to 125 people inRainsville, Alabama, one of the affected areas. The survey examined responses totornado warnings, preparedness and awareness, perspective (e.g., locus of control),and demographics, and this poster reports a selection of initial findings. Some resultsmay apply to other post-disaster situations as well. The survey instrument, adaptedfrom earlier research (e.g., Schmidlin, King, Hammer, & Ono, 1998; Mitchem, 2003),went through a number of iterations based on heuristic evaluation, field-testing followingtwo disasters (Chaney & Weaver, 2007, 2010), external expert evaluations, anddiagnostic usability testing based in part on Morgan, Fischhoff, Bostrom, & Atman(2002). The poster includes both preliminary analysis and highlights of complicatingfactors in such research that will guide future inquiry (e.g., problematic wording, variationsin comments from respondents, and complex disaster conditions such as suchas multiple tornados and multiple tornado warnings at a single location).P.44 Yu YHL, Lin LYC; hlyu@ntu.edu.twNational Taiwan UniversityUNDERSTANDING THE TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF AEROSOLS ATHSIN-CHUANG IN TAIPEI BY DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSISStudies investigating the particulate matter (PM) compositions are rapidlyemerging recently to reveal direct evidence of the impact to human health rather thanonly using PM measures. Among them, the knowledge of the underlying mechanismsof the genesis and interactions of the ambient pollutants plays an important role ofthe understanding of particulate compositions as well as the associated air quality controlstrategies to reduce their risks to human and ecological health. Due to economicand operational reasons, in Taipei metropolitan area, the PM-speciate and criteriapollutants were only both available at Hsin-Chuang observed by two separate stationssituated within 200 m. This study investigates the temporal patterns of the observationsof ambient pollutants at Hsin-Chuang to obtain the most significant commontrends during 2004-2009, which are the trends of a group of ambient pollutants.The common trends are uncorrelated to each other and may represent an importantcontributing mechanism to the local spatiotemporal distribution of air quality. We applieddynamic factor analysis (DFA) to investigating the nonstationary time series ofthe observations of aerosols in this study which is based upon the state space modelwhich can account for the uncertainty from both the dynamic factor model and observations.In addition, loess regression method is used to differentiate the underlyingdriving forces to the temporal variations of ambient pollutants at different temporalscales. Results showed the meteorological conditions play the most important role inthe temporal variations of pollutants. The time-varying magnitude of photochemicalreactions contributes significantly to the interactions among the aerosols and ambientpollutant. In addition, the transboundary transport is also important to the temporalchanges of aerosols.W1-G.1 Zajac RM, Bruskotter JT, Wilson RS, Prange S; wilson.1376@osu.eduThe Ohio State University, Ohio Division of WildlifeCARNIVORES AS A HAZARD: THE ROLE OF RISK PERCEPTION INPREDICTING PUBLIC ACCEPTANCEThe reappearance and recovery of large carnivores across various landscapescreates a need to understand how people will respond to the presence of these animals.To address this need, a psychological model of “acceptance” was tested to determinewhat variables most influence acceptance of black bears (Ursus americanus)in an area with an emerging black bear population (Ohio, USA). We hypothesizedthat people’s perceptions of risk and benefit would mediate the effect of trust andcontrol on acceptance. We used a mail-back survey of Ohio residents (N = 9,400;adjusted response rate = 35%) to assess the variables of interest and test the hypothesizedmodel. The model explained approximately 62% of the variance in acceptance,and perceived risk had the largest impact on the level of acceptance. The resultsalso indicate that carnivores, unlike many other ecological or environmental risks, arepsychometrically similar to classic technological hazards, perhaps due to the potentialdirect threat to human health and safety. We suggest that risk communication effortsthat focus on raising social trust in the managing agency and perceived individualcontrol can indirectly raise stakeholders’ acceptance by lowering risk perception andraising the perceived benefits of emerging carnivore populations. Results from anongoing experimental test of such communication strategies will also be discussed.P.40 Zaleski R, Qian H, Zelenka M, George-Ares A, Money C;rosemary.t.zaleski@exxonmobil.comExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc, ExxonMobil Petroleum and ChemicalEUROPEAN SOLVENTS INDUSTRY GROUP CONSUMER GENERICEXPOSURE SCENARIO TOOLThe European Solvents Industry Group (ESIG) has developed a novel tool toundertake an evaluation of the safety of consumer uses of solvents, as required by theRegistration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH) Regulation. Thistool builds upon the consumer portion of the European Center for Ecotoxicologyand Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment tool (ECETOC - TRA, a recommendedlower tier tool under REACH) by implementing refinements described inAppendix F of ECETOC technical report 107, while accounting for the applicationhierarchy described in Chapter R15 of the REACH Technical Guidance. Technicalenhancements include utilization of additional data to refine scenario defaults and theability to include the impact of indoor ventilation rates. When appropriate, additionalexposure scenarios were developed to cover all consumer uses included in ESIG’s199