Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

isks are severely miscalculated by failing to model important aspects of the event treeand where consequence assessments which are not equivalently conservative result inreversal of relative risk estimates. The talk will conclude with suggestions for bestpractices and rules of thumb for ensuring that event trees and consequence estimatesare consistent. These best practices will be useful in designing event trees and consequencecalculations as well as validating terrorism risk models.M2-H.2 Streetman SS; steven.streetman@dataarchitecturesolutioData Architecture Solutions IncFROM CALCULATIONS TO RESULTS TO DECISIONS: HOW A RISKARCHITECTURE APPROACH SUPPORTS DECISION MAKING ATTHE DOMESTIC NUCLEAR DETECTION OFFICE (DNDO)One of the important challenges for risk analysis is ensuring that the results canbe effectively used to provide risk information for management decisions. The processto gain acceptance of risk information relies on two key components: sufficientmaturity, credibility, and specificity of the risk results and an understanding amongdecision makers of the necessity and usefulness of the risk information. These twocomponents are synergistic. A risk analysis that is not yet mature, credible, or sufficientlydetailed to support decisions will not be viewed as valuable no matter howmuch it is needed. Similarly, well characterized risk information may still not be usedif the need for risk information in decision making is not recognized. With its recentrisk assessment approach, DNDO has crossed the threshold in both areas andis beginning to actively use risk information to inform its decisions and analyses forprioritizing its efforts. This talk will discuss the approach being used and the new riskassessment elements that have allowed risk information to become useful to decisionmakers - functional decomposition of the analysis into a ‘risk architecture’, adversarymodeling, and portfolio analysis. Specific examples of the types of decisions beinginformed and the type and quality of the risk information being developed will beprovided. Lastly, we will show how elements of the risk analysis can be used independentof formal risk calculations to inform various decision making processes andadd rigor and consistency to organizational decisions.P.86 Swain KA; kaswain@olemiss.eduUniversity of MississippiSCARY NEWS: HOW JOURNALISTS VIEW MEDIA FRAMING OF PUB-LIC RESPONSE TO TERRORIST ATTACKSWhen terrorists provoke a high level of public outrage, the expected payoff isgreater. The news framing of risk can strongly influence public responses to terrorattacks. This national U.S. survey explores journalists’ responses to news coverage ofterrorism, to inform preparedness efforts, as well as explanatory content in news storiesmay mitigate potential public outrage. The self-administered survey of 147 mediaprofessionals, journalism students and journalism educators examined attitudes,178experiences and risk perceptions about terrorism events, priorities for news coverageof preparedness and counter-terrorism measures, reactions to hypothetical storiesabout biological attacks, news routines in terrorism coverage, and terrorism reportingstrategies. A new framework proposes a mitigating relationship between explanationsin media coverage of crises and public outrage. In the current study, stories containingspeculation, off-record sourcing, conflicting reports, vague advice for avoiding exposureor false alarms were seen as more frightening, uncertain, vague and confusing,as well as less authoritative, reassuring, explanatory, ethical, credible and trustworthy.Stories containing mitigating content, such as risk comparisons, explanation ofrelative risk, risk assessments and other testing processes, specific/practical advice ortranslation of unfamiliar language were seen as more reassuring and just as engagingas those without it. However, mitigating content did not improve story perceptionswhen it contained conflicting reports. The most credible, least confusing stories werethose containing mitigating content but no outrage rhetoric. The findings suggest thatjournalistic routines in terrorism coverage could mitigate public responses to attacksand help disempower terrorists.W3-D.2 Swanson WL, Ryti RT; rryti@neptuneinc.orgNeptune and Company, Inc.CAN SOIL BIOASSAYS BE USED TO ESTABLISH OR MODIFY SITE-SPECIFIC CLEANUP GOALS?Among the lines of evidence evaluated in ecological risk assessments, bioassaysperformed with site-specific soils can be one of the most relevant and diagnostic ofthe potential for adverse effects on specific receptors. However, the results of thebioassays vary as a result of laboratory conditions (moisture, light, test organism, etc)as well as various confounding factors related to soil properties and characteristics.This paper reviews how soil bioassays performed to support ecological risk assessmentshave been used to supplement literature-based toxicity information. Statisticalmethods were used to evaluate overall bioassay trends, the impact of confoundingfactors, and draw conclusions regarding adverse effect levels of contaminants. Resultsfor seedling germination tests are presented to illustrate these statistical methods andthe challenges related to interpreting results from this type of test.T2-H.1 Taft SC, Comer JE, Hines SA, Barnewall RE, Nichols TL; taft.sarah@epa.govUS Environmental Protection Agency, Battelle Memorial InstituteDOSE-RESPONSE RESEARCH TO SUPPORT RISK-BASED SITE-SPE-CIFIC DECISIONS FOLLOWING AN ANTHRAX ATTACKA great challenge in biothreat agent response and decontamination is the assessmentof residual risks from low levels of contamination. This is especially truefor Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax. Though more than ten yearshave passed since the anthrax letter attacks of 2001, the lack of an acceptable dose-