Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

exercises which help the participants get a hands-on feel for info-gap analysis.Students, researchers, and analysts involved in risk analysis, reliability assessmentand policy selection will find this workshop useful.WK4: Cumulative Risk Assessment: Grouping and Analyzing CombinedChemical, Biological, Physical and Socio-Economic StressorsOrganizer: Linda K. Teuschler$399 onsite registrationPublic interest has been growing regarding the health effects of environmentalexposures and cumulative impacts from multiple chemical and nonchemical(e.g., microbes, noise) stressors on communities. Initiating factors fora cumulative risk assessment (CRA) could include: contaminants in environmentalmedia from multiple pollutant sources; environmental quality metrics,e.g., pollution levels; exposure metrics, including biomonitoring; public healtheffect metrics; and ecosystem impacts. CRA can be defined as an analysis,characterization, and possible quantification of the combined risks to humanhealth or the environment from multiple agents or stressors. In addition, populationand individual vulnerability factors are being recognized as important toCRA, such as diet/nutritional status, behaviors, genetic traits, socio-economicstatus, sensitivities, and psychosocial stress. To meet this challenge, researchefforts are ongoing to characterize exposure, health effects and risks fromcombinations of chemical, physical, biological and socio-economic stressors.This workshop highlights concepts, methods, and resources for scoping andconducting a population-based CRA. A central theme is integrating exposureinformation and population characteristics during CRA planning and scopingbased on initiating factors. In the exercises, chemical, biological and physicalstressor groups are formed using exposure and toxicity factors and are linkedwith vulnerability factors characteristic of the exposed population, includingsocio-economic stressors; these groups are used to develop risk characterizationinformation. Methods for estimating human health risks are discussedand applied, including epidemiologic approaches and methods based on existingchemical mixtures risk assessment guidance and toxicological data. Teachingmethods include lectures and hands-on exercises. Participants are asked tobring a calculator.WK6: Probabilistic Risk Analysis with Hardly Any DataOrganizer: Scott Ferson$300 onsite registrationThis full-day tutorial introduces and compares methods for developing10a probabilistic risk analysis when little or no empirical data are available to informthe risk model. The talks are organized around the basic problems thatrisk analysts face: not knowing the input distributions, not knowing their correlations,not being sure about the model itself, or even which variables shouldbe considered. Possible strategies include traditional approximative methodsand recent robust and bounding methods. Numerical examples are given thatillustrate the use of various methods including traditional moment propagation,PERT, maximum entropy, uniformity principle, probability bounds analysis,Bayesian model averaging and the old work horse, sensitivity analysis. Allof the approaches can be used to develop a fully probabilistic estimate usefulfor screening decisions and other planning. The advantages and drawbacksof the various approaches are examined. Essentially, the drawbacks are thatbounding approaches may say too little about risks, and the rough and readyapproximate methods may say too much. The discussion addresses how defensibledecisions can be made even when little information is available, andwhen one should break down and collect some data and, in that case, whatdata to look for. The presentation style will be casual and interactive. Participantswill receive a CD of the illustrations and numerical examples usedduring the tutorial.WK7: The Transformation of Energy Policies: Implications for RiskGovernance, Communication and Stakeholder ParticipationOrganizer: Ortwin Renn$350 onsite registrationThe workshop will be focusing on risks from the generation and use ofenergy. This is a problem that has high popularity for risk professionals worldwideand includes typical risk components such as uncertainty, complexity andambiguity. With the nuclear accident in Fukushima, the role of energy productionis again in the forefront of public debate. The workshop will use thistopic to explore the best means to communicate different types of risks andto involve stakeholders in the process of risk management and public communication.The basic core of this workshop is formed by a broad conceptualframework for risk governance developed by the International Risk GovernanceCouncil (IRGC), a private, non-profit foundation in Geneva, Switzerland.The workshop will be a combination of lecture and interactive case studies,including role-playing exercises and feedback discussions. It is designed tohelp workshop participants think through the issues involved in dealing withrisk communication about energy risks.