Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

non-state actors to race to deploy SRM. Clearer understanding of regional distributionalimpacts may encourage actors to deploy SRM first, selecting the SRM projectthat most favors the deployer, and preempting (deterring) the deployment of otherSRM projects which might have superior regional distributional impacts but wouldyield excessive aggregate global cooling if deployed second or third. These tradeoffssuggest the need for careful attention to the strategic incentives, governance regimes,research programs, information sharing, accountability and reversibility of SRM.T2-I.4 Williams RA; Rwilliav@gmu.eduMercatus Center at George Mason UniversityUTILITY OF REGULATIONS AND INSPECTION: FOOD SAFETY EX-AMPLEThe U.S. has been attempting to solve economic and social problems throughregulation and inspection for over 140 years and now has approximately 165,000 pagesof rules governing American life. This paper examines the possibilility that, whererisk regulations may be effective relatively early in the life of an agency, over time it istheoretically likely to be less effective as the agency tackles smaller, less certain riskswith fewer obvious solutions, larger more complex industries and become emeshedin more politically driven webs. FDA’s management of food safety will be discussedas an example of how new kinds of models may be needed to solve social problems.P.43 Williams E, Keenan J, Le M, Gaffney S; ewilliams@chemrisk.comChemRisk LLCPROPOSITION 65 DERMAL EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FOR DEHP INCLOTHING WITH PLASTICIZED IMAGESA growing number of notices have been issued to apparel manufacturers anddistributors claiming levels of di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) in their productswould lead to an exceedance of the Maximum Allowable Dose Levels (MADLs) formale reproductive toxicity and the No Significant Risk Level (NSRL) for theoreticalcancer risk according to Proposition 65, formally known as California’s Safe DrinkingWater and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986. Referred to as Safe Harbor Levels(SHLs), these values for DEHP were derived assuming exposure occurred orally,however, a few animal studies have suggested that DEHP can migrate through theskin. Therefore, the purpose of our study was to determine whether or not it is likelythat DEHP SHLs would be exceeded based on dermal exposure through normalproduct use. We performed an exposure assessment to quantify the likely dermalexposure of DEHP from clothing. Our analysis assumed that DEHP was locatedwithin a plasticized image on shirts worn by various age groups: birth to 1 month, 1to 2 years, and adults. Based on the Consumer Product Safety and Information Act of2008 (CPSIA) and various state regulations for maximum allowable levels of DEHPin child care articles, such as pajamas, we assumed these images contained up to 1000ppm DEHP. Ranges of different exposure scenarios were analyzed, including 3 to19424-hour length-of-wear durations and direct skin contact area ranging between 10 and85% of the surface area of the shirt minus the sleeves. Our results indicate that dermalabsorption of DEHP from normal clothing use would not approach the MADLsin neonatal infants (20 µg/day), children (58 µg/day), or adults (410 µg/day), nor theNSRL (310 µg/day). Results suggest that it is unlikely that plasticized images on clothingthat conform to CPSIA DEHP limits would result in exceedance of Proposition65 SHLs through dermal exposure under normal use situations.W1-H.4 Willis HH, Groves D, Fischbach J, Johnson DJ, Andrews L; hwillis@rand.orgRAND CorporationADAPTING TO FUTURE HURRICANE RISK IN NEW ORLEANS UN-DER CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTYAs the city of New Orleans recovers from the devastating hurricanes in 2005,government officials and individuals will continue to seek ways to reduce their risk tofuture hurricane storm surge beyond advocating for more storm-surge barriers. Climatechange and other uncertain factors make it difficult (1) to predict future stormsurge risk to New Orleans, (2) assess the benefits of locally-managed risk mitigationprograms, and (3) effectively communicate the benefits and tradeoffs of differentmitigation programs to the businesses and individuals that may choose to participatein them. This presentation describes an effort to develop and apply new approachesfor incorporating state-of-the-art physical and social science information into cityrisk-mitigation planning. Supported by the National Oceanographic and AtmosphericAdministration, we worked with the New Orleans Office of Homeland Security(OHS) to implement hurricane risk reduction programs and communicate hurricanerisk information and mitigation options to New Orleans’ businesses and residents.This project is comprised of three interrelated activities: (1) Modeling storm surgerisk to New Orleans at the neighborhood level under a wide array of state- and citysupportedlocally-managed risk mitigation programs; (2) Developing the decisionsupportinformation and tools needed by the New Orleans OHS to ensure that theirrisk mitigation programs achieve the desired goals; (3) Improving ways to communicatehurricane risk information to the public to support individual choices regardingthe participation in government-supported risk mitigation measures. These effortsincreased understanding of how to inform decision making under climate changeuncertainty.