Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

P.92 Bronfman NC, Jiménez RB, Blázquez C, Guerra K; rjimenez@unab.clUniversidad Andres BelloSPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF BLACK SPOTS OF TRAFFIC AC-CIDENTS IN SANTIAGO, CHILETraffic accidents are a serious public health problem and a major cause of deathin Chile. Agencies with competence in this matter have conducted spatial analysisof accidents in Chile’s capital, Santiago. However, to date no studies have been conductedto assess the spatio-temporal component of risk, precluding the developmentof longitudinal studies that identify trends and evaluate the effectiveness of preventiveactions adopted by authorities. To fill this gap, this study was conducted with theaim to identify and analyze spatial and numerical behavior in the time of black spotsin Santiago, Chile, using statistical analysis and Geographic Information System. Datafor traffic accidents in Santiago between 2003 and 2009 was analyzed. Using GIS, atotal of 98.060 accidents were geocoded, so accidents that took place in or near anintersection could be identified. Intersections where 6 or more accident occurred annuallywere considered black spots. Spatial distribution of black spots was analyzedusing Kernel density analysis and relations of black spots’ evolution in time, usingPerson’s correlation. Our results indicate that at least 1.365 black spots existed in thetime period under study, accounting for 35.697 traffic accidents and 29% of trafficrelatedfatalities in about 8% of the total set of intersections in Santiago. Of the totalnumber of black spots identified, 67 existed through the entire period 2003-2009.Spatial correlation of black spots through time yield significant and increasing Pearsoncoefficients of correlation, indicating that black spots have a growing tendencyto concentrate in the same places from one year to another. These results constitutea useful tool for authorities, as it aids in the complicated decision-making processrelated to investment in traffic safety, and the community, by providing relevant informationwith which to properly assess and interpret the risks associated with motortraffic in critical points in the city.68T2-B.4 Brown A, Rodriguez J, Hagood G, Kang X, Armbrust K, Jewell J, DiazD, Gatian N, Folmer H; abrown@bch.msstate.eduMississippi State University, Office of the State Chemist-MS, Mississippi Department of MarineResources, Mississippi Department of Environmental QualityTHE STATE OF MISSISSIPPI’S RESPONSE TO THE GULF OIL SPILLFollowing the sinking of the Deepwater Horizon, the state of Mississippi begansampling and monitoring crabs, shrimp, oysters and several species of fish fromnumerous locations within Mississippi State Waters. From the end of May 2010 todate, over 300 samples have been analyzed by the State for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons(PAHs) as listed in the NOAA method for analysis of PAHs in seafood.Additional samples were also collected and submitted to the NOAA laboratory inPascagoula, MS to support the reopening of state waters in accordance with the protocoljointly developed by the gulf coast states, FDA and NOAA. PAHs have notbeen detected in any sample collected to date at levels above the Level of Concern(LOC) as established in the reopening protocol. The levels measured in seafood werealso consistent with or below levels of PAHs detected in food items (smoked turkey,ham, chicken, catfish and barbecued pork) purchased at major retail supermarketsand restaurants. Additionally, we have developed a sensitive GCxGC-MSq methodfor chemically fingerprinting crude oils and tar balls. Crude oil is an extremely variedcomplex chemical mixture of organic compounds creating a unique ion signature forrapid identification.T4-H.1 Buchta DA, Luedeke JD, Hawkins BE, Cox J, McGarvey D, WhitmireM; buchtad@battelle.orgBattelle Memorial Institute, DHS CSACMODELING RETAILER AND CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN A FOODCONTAMINATION EVENTA mathematical model describing consumer and retailer behavior (i.e., awarenessof and compliance with a recall, advisory, or warning) during a food contaminationevent has been developed as part of the Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment(CTRA), a DHS CSAC funded program. The scope of the model begins with awarenessof a contamination event (i.e., a cluster of illnesses has been reported to a localor state health department) and concludes when a steady-state behavior is reachedamong both consumer and retailer compliance. The model has three core components:the time delay to recall after a cluster of illnesses has been identified, informationdiffusion of the recall event, and compliance efficacies for consumers andretailers. Dimensional analysis has been applied to previous recall events to constructthe distribution of recall delays. Once a recall is initiated, information pertaining tothe event spreads through the general population and retailer chains. The diffusionof information regarding a recall is modeled from awareness data from previous foodrecall events with additional considerations of awareness data from the 9/11 attacks,1982 Tylenol cyanide poisonings, and several presidential assassinations in order toincorporate information spread of potential large-scale catastrophes. Once aware ofan event, the proportion of consumers and retailers actually complying with the recalldepends on data from consumer surveys and retailer effectiveness checks. Simulationsof the proposed model are run for a range of input conditions and contaminants toillustrate the mean time to recall and the time to reach 95% of steady-state efficaciesfor consumers and retailers. This tool can be utilized to prioritize investments inmitigating consequence during a food contamination event, provide insight into therelative benefits of enhancing investigations in order to identify recalls, and improverisk communication of recalls to retailers and consumers to maximize compliance.