Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

M2-D.4 MacKenzie CA, Barker K; cmackenzie@ou.eduUniversity of OklahomaOPTIMAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION FOR RECOVERY FROM MUL-TIMODAL TRANSPORTATION DISRUPTIONSThe American economy relies on the ability of businesses to move commoditiesand products efficiently around the nation. Companies can choose among highway,rail, waterway, air, or a combination of these modes to deliver products to theircustomers, and each of these modes has distinct advantages and disadvantages comparedto the other modes. However, if a disruptive event disables part of this network,companies may be forced to scramble to find alternate transportation modesor routes to continue to deliver their commodities efficiently. These disruptions canlead to increased transportation costs and late deliveries. We develop a decision modelto determine the optimal resource allocation for a multimodal transportation networkrecovering from a disruption. Resources are distributed according to where themoney can provide the greatest help in easing transportation difficulties in terms ofcosts and transportation delays for companies. Necessary and sufficient conditionsare derived for both static and dynamic decision problems.M2-B.1 Maeda Y, Seo K; tymaeda1@ipc.shizuoka.ac.jpShizuoka University, Aoyama Gakuin UniversityDELPHI ANALYSIS OF ISSUES AFTER THE 2011 PACIFIC COAST OFTOHOKU EARTHQUAKEThe Pacific Coast of Tohoku earthquake on March 11, 2011 has catastrophicimpacts on Japan. Japan is currently on the way to recovery. However, as the damageon the country as well as society is so serious, Japanese society is urged to changesome systems including hazard management, energy policy, information systems andcity planning. These changes are accompanied with social group realignments, thusnecessarily followed by various risks. In addition to these societal risks, Japan shouldbe prepared for the coming disaster risks in near future. In 2004, Indonesia experiencedmagnitude 9.1 earthquake, named “2004 Indian Ocean earthquake”. After thatevent, Indonesian society has suffered magnitude 7-8 class earthquakes every year.This could be the case with Japan because of plate movement mechanism: i.e., Japanmay have to brace for magnitude 8 class earthquakes again and again in the next severalyears. To cope with these risk issues, SRA-Japan established the special researchcommittee for the 2011 Pacific Coast of Tohoku earthquake. The aim of the committeeis, from viewpoints of risk analysts, to create and relate messages about riskissues in one year, in five years, in ten years and in thirty years from the earthquake.To do this, the committee garners SRA-Japan member’s opinions about possible risksin Japan by using Delphi method. In SRA-Japan, there are over 600 members in interdisciplinaryfields from various backgrounds, thus the messages are expected to behelpful for Japanese society to lower its risks and to optimize the resource allocation.The research is now underway. An interim report will be presented.P.36 Managaki S, Kotani K, Hondo H, Kobayashi T, Miyake A, Masunaga S;managaki@ynu.ac.jpYokohama National UniversitySUBSTANCE FLOW-BASED EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FOR HBCDFROM A LIFE-CYCLE PERSPECTIVE IN JAPANThe present study aims to develop a risk reduction policy for chemicals, consideringa product life-cycle. Environmental emissions from end-products containingbrominated flame retardants (i.e., HBCD) for the period 1986-2030, which is currentlyundergoing a risk assessment has been estimated by substance flow analysis(SFA). Through the investigation of quantitative HBCD life cycle, estimated HBCDstock in　the use phase shows a continuous increase, indicating thatemissions from the materials containing HBCD will be potentially long-term sourcesof pollutants leaching to the environment. In Japan, 571 kg/year and 41 kg/year ofHBCD was calculated to emit to the atmospheric and aquatic environment in 2000,respectively. This corresponds to 0.03 % of the consumed HBCD quantity in Japan.These environmental emissions of HBCD were increasing rapidly until 2011. Usinga multimedia fate model, where the estimated HBCD emission were used for theinput parameter and a simple pharmacokinetic model, intakes of adults through lifecycle of HBCD were converted to predicted body burdens and compared with theresults observed from Japanese human milk. Predictions compared well with thoseobserved for HBCDs for the period 1986-2005. SFA focuses on the emission fromproduction to waste process (i.e., life cycle) of target chemicals and thus, this estimationmay cover whole exposure pathways. The present study gives an insight to obtainbasic information for long term measures toward strategic chemical managementconsidering their life cycle.M4-G.3 Marenberg AA, Burch DF, Shatkin JA, Davis JM; amarenberg@icfi.comICF International, CLF Ventures, US EPASTATE OF THE SCIENCE AND INFORMATION GAPS REGARDINGA COMPREHENSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AN AP-PLICATION OF A CARBON-BASED NANOMATERIALPart of EPA’s strategy for prioritizing research to inform future assessments ofnanomaterials includes the development of case studies that describe what is knownand what needs to be known to assess the ecological and health implications of specificnanomaterial applications and uses. This presentation describes the scoping processused to select a candidate carbon-based nanomaterial application for the next ina series of these EPA case studies and summarizes preliminary findings of the casestudy. The process for selecting appropriate nanomaterial applications for case studydevelopment considered multiple criteria, including adequacy of available information,relevance to EPA programs, evidence of general population and occupationalexposure potential, applicability to ecological and human health risk assessment, and139