Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

corresponding slowdown in container movements throughout the port - negativelyimpacting both the economy and the environment. The challenge is finding the rightbalance between operational efficiency, security, safety, and the environment. TheUniversity of Southern California’s National Center for Risk and Economic Analysisof Terrorism Events (CREATE) has responded to this need and is developing Port-Sec - Port Security Risk Analysis and Resource Allocation System. Under fundingfrom DHS S&T and in collaboration with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach(POLA/LB) and the USCG, a USC team is developing a system that provides portsecurity personnel the tools and methods that will allow them both tactically andstrategically address port security risk, needs and concerns. Tactically, there is a needto adjust in near real-time resource allocations to maximize security (i.e., reduce riskfrom an attack) while simultaneously minimizing impact on day-to-day operationsand the environment. Strategically, there is a need to forecast the impact that futurefacility expansions and new technologies will have on operations, security, safety, andthe environment. A demonstration prototype PortSec system capable of providingtactical analytical support is undergoing evaluations by POLA/LB security personnel.The system is currently being extended to support incident commanders during eventresponses.T4-E.1 Oryang D; david.oryang@fda.hhs.govUS Food and Drug AdministrationPRACTICAL TOOLS FOR PRIORITIZING FOOD SAFETY PROJECTSAND RESEARCHThere is a need for risk-based approaches that integrate sound science withinformation technology to appropriately manage food safety risks and determineappropriate research priorities. However, these approaches must be practical in twoimportant respects. First, they must recognize that data gaps are inevitable and thattools must be flexible enough to consider both expert judgment and readily availabledata. Second, they must be accessible to risk managers to ensure that the decisionmaking process is intuitive and reproducible. Thus, the selection of qualitative, semiquantitative,and quantitative approaches to risk ranking and risk prioritization maywell depend on the risk manager’s familiarity and experience with decision supporttools, as well as the need to incorporate expert judgment to address specific data gaps.In addition, the practicality of the approach depends on specific risk management objectives.Whereas risk ranking methods typically compare threats to public health, riskprioritization methods often involve multi-factorial techniques that consider a broaderarray of decision attributes (in addition to public health risk) that might influencethe prioritization including, but not limited to, cost burden of the outbreaks, publicperception, feasibility of controls, impact on the industries, and trade impact. Thispresentation will summarize the landscape of practical approaches to determine foodsafety research priorities, discuss the strengths and weakness of various approaches,and offer some thoughts as to how these types of approaches can be used effectivelyto establish research priorities that meet risk management goals.W2-B.3 Ozkaynak H, Egeghy P, Mitchell-Blackwood J; Ozkaynak.Haluk@EPA.GOVUS Environmental Protection AgencyFROM SHEDS TO SHEDS-LITE: DEVELOPMENT OF AN EFFICIENTHUMAN EXPOSURE MODELThe performance of an EPA exposure modeling system was evaluated for itsapplicability to the prioritization of 52 “Challenge” chemicals on the basis of exposure.EPA is interested in expanding this and other tools to prioritize thousands ofchemicals under a new multi-level targeted testing research program for managingchemical risk. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) modelsrepresent a family of higher tiered models that simulate realistic distributions ofhuman exposure to different chemicals through the daily activities of representativepopulations. ln evaluating the list of chemicals it was determined that the SHEDSmodel would be applicable for several but not all of the chemicals. The probabilisticSHEDS model in its current form requires considerable input data and/or parameters.The availability of the required data can be especially problematic for new chemicalswith new pathways of exposure not explicitly considered currently by SHEDS.SHEDS in its current form is structured around using human activity patterns fromthe general population; additional scenarios will be developed for industrial or specialpopulations. A key advantage to the model is the ability to readily address both nearand far field exposure considerations. Additionally, generalized exposure estimates arepossible in SHEDS by grouping chemicals with similar properties and usage patterns.Feasible categories for this type of modeling configuration of SHEDS are industrial/occupational, plastics, commercial additives, pesticides/herbicides and natural risks.Specific chemicals by category will be mentioned during the presentation. We willbriefly describe an on-going activity regarding the development of a more efficientand broadly applicable exposure-based screening and prioritization modeling tool“SHEDS-Lite” for future applications.W1-F.3 Pabon NA, Collier Z, Linkov I; npabon@andrew.cmu.eduUS Army Corps Engineer Research and Development CenterREVIEW OF RISK ANALYSIS USE IN DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE(DOD) ACQUISITIONRisk analysis is involved in all stages of all DoD acquisition programs. Theseprograms, intended to resolve specific gaps in joint military capabilities, require acomprehensive Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) prior to their approval. Risk analysisis used in AoA considerations to help identify the most cost-effective solution thatmeets capability requirements, and to establish parameter objectives in the AcquisitionProgram Baseline (APB), that will guide the acquisition approach. Following the153