Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

conclusions that are robust in both scientific and socially acceptable terms. Thereis a growing need to assure the transparency of the processes by which risk assessmentvalues are developed so that the evolution of these values may be followedby persons with limited technical backgrounds. There is also an increasing need forproduction of risk assessment values in a timely manner, particularly for emergencysituations such as the Gulf Oil Spill and for sensitive subpopulations such as childrenin relation to cadmium exposures. ATSDR is in the process of addressing the aboveissues through an increasing reliance on computational toxicology modeling methodswhich are both transparent and rapid. Computational toxicology methods are beingused increasingly as an adjunct approach to traditional methods. Stakeholder involvementhas been a cornerstone in the development of ATSDR Toxicological Profilesand attendant Minimal Risk Levels (MRLs) since the inception of this program withsolicitation of extensive public comments during the peer-review process prior to thefinal release of these influential scientific documents that are used on a global basis inmany countries. External peer review and solicitation of public comments on draftToxicological Profiles under development are not held at the same time. In summary,ATSDR has moved in a concerted manner to address these aspects of current riskassessment practice in a timely and rigorous scientific manner.P.113 Fowler G, Takeuchi Y, Sequeira R, Fussell W, Simon M, Lougee G, SatoA, Xu Y; glenn.fowler@aphis.usda.govUSDA-APHISASSESSING THE RISK OF ASIAN GYPSY MOTH, LYMANTRIA DISPAR(LINNAEUS), INTRODUCTION INTO THE UNITED STATES ONMARITIME SHIPMENTSThe Asian gypsy moth (AGM) is an invasive forest pest of substantial phytosanitarysignificance that can infest maritime ships and cargo. We generated pest riskassessments, each comprised of three analyses, which characterized the risks to theUnited States associated with AGM moving on maritime shipments from Japan andChina. The first analysis characterized ports for AGM infestation risk based on surroundinglandcover and U.S. bound shipment volumes. The second analysis estimatedthe annual number of infested ships coming to the United States by country and portbased on shipment volumes and infestation likelihoods. The third analysis characterizedthe risk to the United States from AGM using risk assessment guidelines thatconform to international standards. Our pest risk assessments were used in technicaldiscussions to provide scientific justification for AGM pre-shipment inspectionprograms.100T2-I.3 Fraas A, Lutter R; lutter@rff.orgResources for the FutureUNCERTAINTY AND ESTIMATES OF THE BENEFITS OF REDUC-ING FINE PARTICLE POLLUTIONEPA’s estimates of the benefits of its regulations to reduce air pollution relatedto fine particles are quite large, so large they exceed the benefits and costs of allother federal regulations. EPA has developed its estimates while incorporating uncertaintyin only a limited way. As a result, it cannot claim that any particular estimateof benefits reflects an expected value, and it cannot develop a range of values correspondingto a given confidence interval. We depart from the EPA’s approach andfollow recommendations of the National Research Council (2002) suggesting thatEPA incorporate uncertainty into estimates of the benefits of improved air quality.In particular, focusing on the pathway responsible for the overwhelming majorityof benefits, we incorporate uncertainty in the form of distributions for the followingcritical components. In EPA’s benefits model the product of these componentsyields monetized benefits. 1. the marginal value of reductions in mortality risk, 2.the marginal reduction in mortality risk due to reductions in ambient fine particleconcentrations, and 3. the marginal reductions in fine particle concentrations dueto reductions in emissions. We use this model to characterize air quality benefitsand contrast the benefits and resulting estimates of uncertainty with those previouslyreported by EPA.T3-A.1 Friedman SM; smf6@lehigh.eduLehigh UniversityEXPLAINING RADIATION RISKS: A COMPARISON OF MEDIA COV-ERAGE OF FUKUSHIMA, CHERNOBYL AND TMIAfter the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in 1979, journalists, nuclear industrypersonnel and government experts had many lessons to learn about how toexplain the intricacies of plant operations and potential radiation risks to the public.The Public’s Right to Information Task Force of the President’s Commission on theAccident at TMI called the radiation coverage of the accident “abysmally inadequate”and charged reporters who covered it with providing insufficient background informationand making improper comparisons and factually impossible statements. TheTask Force provided guidelines about how to better inform the public about radiationrisks, and some of these guidelines were followed in coverage of the Chernobylaccident, according to a 1987 study of five U.S. newspapers and three television networksby Friedman et al. These media outlets provided more detailed explanationsof nuclear plant operations but less detailed radiation information. In particular, theyrarely provided specific radiation measurements or explanations of health and environmentalconcerns or long-term effects. This presentation will explore explanationsof radiation issues and potential health and environmental risks that appeared in the