Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

mortality or systemic infections using rhesus monkey and guinea pig models, whereL. monocytogenes strains with different virulence were delivered in a high fat foodor low fat medium. Recent advancements greatly enhance our understanding of themultiple facets of L. monocytogenes dose-response relationship. However, challengesremain in (1) collecting and relating data from diverse research fields to listeriosisin humans for use in models, and (2) reducing uncertainties especially for extrapolatingfrom high to low doses, strain virulence variability, application to specific at-risksubpopulations (i.e., elderly and neonates) and food matrix effects.M4-J.3 Chen CC, Wang YH, Wu KY, Chang HY; ccchen@nhri.org.twNational Health Research Institutes, TaiwanPREVALENCE OF VARIANT CREUTZFELDT-JAKOB DISEASE INTHE UK: ESTIMATION FROM DIETARY EXPOSURE TO BOVINESPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY DURING THE PERIOD 1980 TO1996Although the incidence of new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) hasdecreased in recent years, great uncertainties remain regarding the prevalence ofvCJD infections. We described the probability of the number of potential infectionsdue to dietary exposure to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) infectiousagent through a Poisson process throughout the time course of the BSE epidemicperiod, from 1980 to 1996. Birth cohorts and gender-specific exposure intensities ofthe BSE infectious agent were estimated in the U.K. for the two major periods: from1980 to the specified bovine offal (SBO) legislation in 1989; and from the SBO banin 1989 to the Over Thirty Month Rule (OTMR) in 1996. The number of potentialvCJD carriers was then obtained by multiplying the numbers from different birthcohorts with the probability of dietary exposure and survival through the end of2009; the calculations were performed under various scenarios of contamination rate(CR) in the production of mechanically recovered meat (MRM) containing the BSEinfectious agent. The estimated numbers of infections drastically increased with theassumed CR. The total estimated numbers ranged from approximately 22,000 (CR =0) to 3,310,000 (CR = 0.001) due to the consumption of burgers, sausages and othermeat products during the period 1980-1996. The prevalence of vCJD infections maystill pose a serious public health problem in the U.K. Further studies are needed topredict future vCJD incidence.P.117 Choi EJ, Kim HT, Song BR, Bahk GJ*; bahk@kunsan.ac.krDepartment of Food and Nutrition, Kunsan National UniversityTHE PROBABILITY STATISTICS ANALYSIS OF FOOD INTAKE INPUTDISTRIBUTION BY SENSITIVITY GROUPS (YOPI) OF FOODBORNEDISEASE FOR QUANTITATIVE MICROBIAL RISK ASSESSMENTQuantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can be used to evaluate foodsafety as a scientific tool. Recent QMRA methodologies have been rapidly developed76to take into consideration the complexity of the food intake. However, to allow for amore realistic and accuracy QMRA, it requires that the study of probability statisticsanalysis for food consumption distribution by sensitivity group of foodborne diseasei.e. YOPI; younger, older, pregnant and immunodeficiency group. The purpose ofthis study was to present the proper probability distribution models that functions asthe input variables to the further QMRA model based on the data about food intakeinput distributions; example of consumption data of sausage products in Korea. Theamount of intake data of sausage products was calculated based on 2009 Korea NationalNutrition Survey. Probability distributions were created using BestFit (version5.5 including ‘‘@RISK’’, Palisade, Newfield, N.Y.) based on the obtained data. Statisticalranking was determined by the goodness of fit (i.e., the Kolmogorov-Smirnov[KS] test etc) to determine the proper probability distribution model. The properprobability distribution model for consumption of whole population, younger (< 3year-old), older (>65 year-old), and immunodeficiency group for sausage productswere determined as InvGauss (35.728, 24.276), LogLogistic (0.589, 11.332, 1.6119),Logistic (16.2822, 7.1872) and LogLogistic (23.039, 12.957) distribution model, respectively.There was not enough data for fitting in pregnant group. The QMRA haveto be presented as the probability distribution model that can be showed on uncertaintyand variability of input values such as amount of intake data. The results of thisstudy can be directly used as the input variables in exposure evaluation for conductingQMRA of sausage products.P.29 Choi K, Campbell J, Clewell H; toxsoil@gmail.comThe Hamner Insitutes for Health SciencesAN IN VITRO TO IN VIVO EXTRAPOLATION APPROACH FOR CON-DUCTING A CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR PHTHALATEESTERSPhthalate esters, a group of industrial chemicals extensively used as plasticizersand additives, have been associated with adverse effects on the male reproductivedevelopment of laboratory animals. Epidemiological studies have raised concern forpotential phthalate-related developmental toxicity in humans. While current assessmentshave focused on a single phthalate, it will be necessary to consider cumulativeexposure to the endocrine active phthalates considering potency and metabolismdifferences across varying side chains. We have used a PBPK model, coupled within vitro assays, to provide in vitro to in vivo extrapolation of compound-specifickinetic and potency differences to assess the cumulative risk of phthalate exposures.Phthalates selected comprise di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP), di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate(DEHP), di-n-octyl phthalate (DnOP) and butyl-benzyl phthalate (BBP). In vitro potencyassessment was conducted on monoester metabolites including mono-n-butylphthalate (MBP), mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), mono-benzyl phthalate(MBzP) and mono-n-octyl phthalate (MnOP) with two cell lines (MA-10 and R2C)