Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

T4-H.4 Dingus CA, McMillan NJ, Born A; dingusc@battelle.orgBattelle Memorial InstitutePUBLIC HEALTH RESPONSE SENSITIVITY STUDY TOOL (PHRSST):A RISK-BASED DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR ASSESSING PUBLICHEALTH RESPONSE STRATEGIESHomeland Security Presidential Directive (HSPD) 18 (Medical Countermeasuresagainst Weapons of Mass Destruction) requires a risk assessment of Chemical,Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear terrorism for the purpose of risk based decisionsupport in the area of medical countermeasure acquisition and development.Under this directive, the Department of Homeland Security’s Science and TechnologyDirectorate is developing a prototype tool to support studies of public healthresponse strategies across threat areas (CBRN). This tool is called the Public HealthResponse Sensitivity Study Tool (PHRSST). The prototype PHRSST incorporatespublic health response (PHR) models used as part of the Chemical Terrorism RiskAssessment (CTRA), Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA), and the Radiologicaland Nuclear Terrorism Risk Assessment (RNTRA) as well as probability distributionsestimating the risks of terrorist attacks of different sizes. Parameters to the modelsare accessible to the user via a graphical user interface (GUI); these parameters can bemanipulated to implement various “what if ” scenarios. The models for the differentthreat areas can be run to estimate consequences and the results compared side-byside.This talk focuses on the development of the tool and its capabilities. Examplesof its utility will be presented. All results will be notional with respect to event sizes.W3-B.1 DiNovi M, Srinivasan J, Srinivasan ; jannavi.srinivasan@fda.hhs.govUS Food and Drug AdministrationEXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FOR FOR CAFFEINE IN THE UNITEDSTATESCaffeine up to a level of 0.02% is GRAS when used in cola-type beverages inaccordance with good manufacturing practice (21 CFR 182.1180). Historically, caffeinehas been added to certain foods, beverages, dietary supplements, and medications.Recently however, caffeine has found use in non-traditional food sources:chewing gum, chocolate, other candies, “energy” drinks, and alcoholic beverages.The United States Food and Drug Administration estimated daily caffeine intake inthe U.S. population by summing contributions from the different foods that can becaffeinated (natural and added). These contributions were calculated by combiningfood consumption from 2-day (2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition ExaminationSurvey, NHANES) and 14-day consumption data surveys (National ProductDatabase-National Eating Trends, NPD-NET) with the highest caffeine concentrationfor each food obtained from available sources. The intake analyses also includeddata from the National Coffee Association and the Beverage Marketing Corporation.The results from these surveys will be discussed to understand the overall dietaryexposure of caffeine in United States.P.101 Dixon G, Clarke C; gnd5@cornell.eduCornell UniversityMEDIA COVERAGE, “FALSE BALANCE,” AND THE AUTISM-VAC-CINE CONTROVERSY: A PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENTParental concern over the claim that vaccines cause or trigger autism has manyhealthcare officials blaming the media for perpetuating a controversy that they assertshould not exist. A prominent journalistic norm is to highlight all relevant viewpointsregardless of how well known or influential they may be (i.e., balance as quantity) orfocus on identifying the two most influential perspectives by presenting them in apoint-counterpoint format, where each are afforded equal attention (i.e., balance asquality). However, the commitment to balance may come at the expense of accuracy,in terms of producing a discourse at odds with an established scientific consensus.In the case of the autism-vaccine issue, where the evidence strongly favors one side(the mainstream medical community), there is concern that presenting news storiesin a point-counterpoint format gives readers the impression of scientific uncertaintywhen in fact there is a high degree of certainty and agreement among scientists. Doesthis “false balance” have a significant effect on people’s view of this issue (i.e., perceiveduncertainty) as well as vaccine-related attitudes, risk perception, and intentions?In the present study, we randomly assigned participants to news articles about thevaccine-autism controversy. Articles were coded as either balanced (discussing bothpro-causal and anti-causal claims), anti-link (anti-causal link only), or pro-link (procausallink). We measure post exposure variables including (1) perception of scientificcertainty, (2) vaccine risk perception, and (3) behavioral intention. Theory of PlannedBehavior variables are included to control for added variance in behavioral intention.To our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the impact of “balanced” mediacoverage of an issue on attitudes and behavior. Data collection is ongoing, but weanticipate that our results will have implications related to effective vaccine risk communicationstrategies.W2-E.2 Domesle ARM, Bennett P, Dearfield K, Kause J; aledander.domesle@fsis.usda.govFood Safety and Inspection Service, US Department of AgricultureRAPID RISK EVALUATION: AN IMPORTANT TOOL FOR ADDRESS-ING FOOD CONTAMINATION INCIDENTS AND EMERGING FOODSAFETY CONCERNSWhen responding to chemical contamination in the food supply, FSIS risk managersmake rapid decisions, often with limited information or data. These decisionsinclude whether to withhold the mark of inspection, institute a recall, or take otherpublic health action. To ensure a more rapid and consistent approach, a new, modular,farm-to-fork, and rapid risk evaluation process is being developed to address specificcontamination incidents or environmental contaminants detected more broadly at89