Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

W2-H.1 Lazo JK, Morrow BH, Rhome JR, Feyen JC, Demuth J*; lazo@ucar.eduNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchINUNDATION OR IGNORANCE? PERCEPTION AND COMMUNICA-TION OF STORM SURGE RISKThe National Weather Service (NWS) issues a wide array of text and graphicalproducts to communicate the forecasted conditions associated with storm surge(defined as an abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a tropical or extratropicalcyclone). The serious threat to life and property posed by storm surge suggests thatthis threat be specifically communicated to members of the public so that they canmake better proactive and protective decisions. We report on two recent surveys exploringand assessing awareness and understanding, or lack thereof, concerning stormsurge and currently available storm surge information. First we report on an analysisof the general public’s actual and perceived risk of inundation, their stated intendedbehavioral responses to hurricane risks, and their information preferences. Second wereport on a survey of coastal emergency manager’s preferences for storm surge riskcommunication. This work is designed in part to assess whether the National WeatherService (NWS) should consider developing new storm surge informational approachesto improve the communication and decision-making with respect to storm surgerisk. We discuss ongoing and future efforts to support NWS efforts.P.22 Ledezma F; ledezmafernando@hotmail.comWater and Sanitation CentreLANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT IN FUNDAMENTAL ROADS OF BO-LIVIA USING MULTI-CRITERIA AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATIONSYSTEMS ANALYSISOne of the mayor risks in Bolivia is the landslides that occurs on roads. Thispaper present the results of landslide risk assessment in fundamental roads of Boliviausing multicriteria and Geographic information systems analysis.W4-F.1 Lee RC, Ryti R, Fitzgerald M, Black P; rlee@neptuneinc.orgNeptune and Company, Inc.NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, RISK ASSESSMENT,AND DECISION ANALYSIS: WHY CAN’T WE ALL BE FRIENDS?Natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) is conducted under the UnitedStates Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act(CERCLA) or the Oil Protection Act to quantify economic compensation for currentand future environmental damage in cases such as oil spills or other CERCLA-regulatedreleases. Risk assessment (RA) is typically conducted under CERCLA or similarregulations to inform whether environmental toxicants or other stressors are causingor will cause adverse effects on human health or the environment, and whether actionshould be taken. Decision analysis (DA) coupled with economic analysis may beconducted to decide what the best course of action might be to mitigate or prevent134adverse health effects or environmental damage, but is not currently a routine or explicitcomponent of environmental regulation in the US. These three broad areas ofquantitative assessment are often conducted in isolation and in response to separateregulatory and legal requirements. However, there are no compelling scientific or analyticreasons that the three disciplines cannot inform each other; and ultimately theycan perhaps be harmonized. We discuss NRDA, RA, and DA in turn; including theregulatory and legal contexts, typical applications, methodology, and role in informingenvironmental decision-making. We also present a case study in which these differentapproaches could be combined. We conclude with recommendations with regard toa harmonized approach, which consists of an overarching DA framework that incorporatesNRDA and/or RA.P.33 Lei HL, Chien LC, Liao KW, Yeh CY; d508099002@tmu.edu.twTaipei Medical UniversityEXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF METAL CONCENTRATION AND REL-EVANT FACTORS ON WOMEN REPRODUCTIVITY ABILITYThis cross-sectional study investigated the level of blood mercury, arsenic, leadand relevant factors on women reproductivity ability. Study participants consisted of79 polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and 259 non-PCOS infertility women recruitedat the center for reproductive medicine and 58 pregnant women at the department ofgynecology and obstetrics in Taipei, Taiwan. Between August 2008 and March 2010,there are 396 participants recruited from a hospital and written informed consent.The participants were interviewed face-to-face by a trained interviewer who collectedinformation about sociodemographic characteristics, occupation, pregnancy and reproductivehistory, fish intake, and other lifestyle characteristics. Mercury, arsenic, leadconcentrations in blood were measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry(ICP-MS; Thermo X-series II). The results were: the median concentrationin blood was mercury: 1.67± 1.35 /1.79± 1.18 ppb, arsenic: 13.58± 15.47/12.99±4.22 ppb , lead: 16.51± 0.43/15.68± 8.19ppb respectively for PCOS /non-PCOSinfertility women and mercury: 1.57± 0.98ppb, arsenic: 10.81±2.9 ppb, lead: 11.62±4.79 ppb. A multiple logistic regression model is shown that women with taking herbmedicine 1~3 times per month associated with a 3.91 fold risk for infertility of PCOSwomen (adjusted odds ratio = 3.91, 95%CI = 1.13-13.46). Women with exercising1-2times per week were associated with a 0.39 fold risk for non-PCOS infertilitywomen (adjusted odds ratio = 0.39, 95%CI =0.17-0.88), thus exercise may play aprotective role in ability of pregnancy. Blood lead and arsenic level in infertility womenwere higher than pregnant women with adjusted odds ratio 1.14(1.06-1.23) and1.24(1.1-1.39) fold for PCOS and non-PCOS infertility women respectively. Thesefindings suggest of taking herb medicine, without exercising habits and higher lead,arsenic concentrations in blood would play an important role in the risk of infertilityin women.