Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

over the nature and format of information that participants see when surfing the webor watching television broadcasts. Findings are reported from an application using381 residents of central and southern Florida, who made decisions to prepare for ahypothetical 2012 hurricane. The study yielded several unexpected findings, includinga tendency for forecast maps that do not have center track lines to induce lower averagedegrees of worry than those that do among all residents in the uncertainty cone,a “fatigue” effect where reading hypothetical news articles about a previous stormthat caused damage also induced lower worry, and a “false survivor” effect in whichparticipants who had experienced hurricanes but suffered no damage expressed theleast degree of current during the simulation.M4-D.1 Meyer AK; anita.k.meyer@usace.army.milArmy Corps of EngineersTHE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY VALUESAND POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO DOD LEGACY SITE CLEANUPThe Department of Defense (DoD) has developed a three-tiered process called“scan-watch-action” for emerging contaminants. The process (1) identifies chemicalsand materials with evolving science or regulatory climate, (2) conducts qualitativePhase I Impact Assessments and quantitative Phase II Impact Assessments, and (3)develops risk management options (RMOs) for chemicals with high risk to peopleor DoD business functions. This presentation will discuss some of the activities associatedwith the scanning process; participation by DoD in interagency review ofIntegrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Toxicological Reviews. Observations andinsights from participation in several reviews will be discussed but the topic will benarrowed down to a single chemical class and to one area of impact to DoD. DoDrecently participated in a review EPA’s proposed changes in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon(PAH) relative potency factors, this presentation will use a case study toshow how these changes could affect investigation and cleanup of DoD sites, in thiscase a former skeet range, contaminated with PAHs.T2-H.4 Middleton JK, Hale TL, Lordo RA, Huckett JC; middletonj@battelle.orgBattelleGAP ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY FOR THE DEPARTMENT OFHOMELAND SECURITY’S BIOTERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENTIn addition to providing an assessment of the bioterrorism risk faced by the nation,the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) developed by the Science and TechnologyDirectorate of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been usedto help identify critical knowledge gaps to inform biodefense research efforts. Gapanalysis in the BTRA program uses a two part methodological approach. The firstpart of this approach is an assessment of the scientific data underlying the BTRAagent-specific data values and assignment of a confidence level to the data in qualitativeterms of high, medium, or low. This confidence level assignment is then reviewedby relevant Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) for finalization of the confidence value.Second, parameter impact on BTRA model results is assessed through a series ofcomponent model and overall model sensitivity studies. These studies identify thoseparameters whose value has the greatest impact on model outputs. Critical knowledgegaps are then defined as those parameters for which the confidence in the data islow, but its impact on model output is high. In a similar manner, knowledge gaps forother parameters can be further prioritized by the combination of these two efforts.This methodology is provided as an example of how gap analysis can be performedfor set of computational models that serve as individual components of an overallassessment.W4-I.4 Mills D, Deck L; dmills@stratusconsulting.comStratus Consulting Inc.THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MORTALITY RISK AND IM-PACTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO EXTREME HEAT AND COLD IN MAJORU.S. METROPOLITAN AREASGlobal mean temperature increases from climate change are expected to resultin more frequent and severe summer heat events while future winters are expected tobecome milder. This could increase the risk of mortality attributable to extreme heatwhile reducing the risk of mortality attributable to extreme cold in the United States.Here, we present an analysis of the risks and mortality impacts attributable to extremeheat and cold could change in 49 U.S. metropolitan areas as a result of future climatechange. This work incorporates site-specific temperature thresholds and mortalityresponse functions for extreme heat and cold developed in the epidemiological literatureby Medina-Ramon and Schwartz (2007) into the BenMAP platform. We thenestimate temperature-attributable mortality for a range of climate change scenariosfrom the Climate Change Division (CCD) at the US EPA as part of a larger analysisof climate impacts. First, we evaluate mortality events within a metropolitan areausing its own threshold temperature and mortality response function. Second, weconsider the implications of baseline conditions and acclimatization/adaptation onthe present day relationships by estimating the mortality responses for each locationassuming the thresholds and mortality responses for every other urban center. Forexample, the range of the hot temperature thresholds (21.1 o C to 32.2 o C) as well asthe cold thresholds (9.4 o C to -17.2 o C) shows the potential for significantly differentregional responses for temperature related mortality. As another sensitivity analysis,different “seed” years are used to reflect observed weather variability. In addition,we estimate other metrics to demonstrate the impact of climate change including:changes in temperature distributions (e.g. number of days above a threshold); changesin mortality over time for a location; and, the net effect of a warming climate increasingheat mortality risk while decreasing cold mortality risk.145