Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

W4-H.3 Heatwole NT, Florig HK; heatwole@usc.eduUniversity of Southern California, University of Florida, Carnegie Mellon UniversityTOWARDS MORE RISK- AND PERFORMANCE-BASED U.S. GOVERN-MENT STANDARDS FOR PROTECTING BUILDINGS FROM VEHI-CLE BOMB ATTACKSThe threat of vehicle bomb attacks against buildings has led several U.S. governmentagencies (including GSA, DHS, DoD, and State Department) to formulatebuilding standards (codes) with provisions related to blast protection. The recommendationscontained in these standards, however, while well-considered, are not theproduct of explicit cost-benefit considerations. These standards are instead designedso as to provide what is believed to be a reasonable amount of protection, based oncosts and a largely qualitative, judgment-based risk assessment. This has led many toquestion the cost-effectiveness and true impact of the standards. To explore theseissues, structured interviews were conducted with 11 individuals - from government,industry, and academia - who are knowledgeable of these standards and the groupsthat formulate them. The specific interview goals were to gauge: how the standardsmight be made less prescriptive and more risk- and performance-based, what thepotential pros and cons of doing this might be, and what factors (institutional andotherwise) might impede this. From this, a series of recommendations are presented,including that these groups: expand their membership to include one or more personswith a wider knowledge of risk analysis and risk management, beyond the contextof weapons effects and military defensive design singularly; incorporate more uncertaintiesexplicitly into their analyses; make the linkages between costs and avoideddamages more concrete, and use this as one input to the decision-making process;rework the analysis so that it is determined how likely an attack would have to be formitigation to be worthwhile, rather than assuming an attack will necessarily occur; andconduct detailed performance analyses on a small scale (e.g., for a single building ora small representative sample of buildings), and then extrapolate the results to othersituations.116P.62 Ho WC, Lin MH, Lin YS, Chen PC, Cheng TJ, Wu TN; whocmu@gmail.comChina Medical UniversityOZONE EXPOSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH CARDIOVASCULAR DIS-EASES MORTALITY BASED ON BOTH ACUTE AND LONGER TERMANALYSESAir pollution-associated cardiovascular mortality is a major concern in publichealth. It has been shown that ozone can play an important role in elevating cardiovasculardiseases mortality risk for both acute and long term exposure. The objectiveof this study is to assess the cardiovascular disease mortality risk of ozone exposureby using both daily (Time-stratified case-crossover design) and monthly (Poissondistributedrepeated measures regression model) mortality analyses. The nationalmortality registry data, from the period 2006-2008, concerning mortality in sixty-fourTaiwanese townships with Environment Protection Agency (EPA) air monitoring stationswas analysed. The results indicated that increased ozone exposure was associatedwith higher cardiovascular disease mortality. Both the daily mortality analysis (Timestratified case-crossover design) and monthly mortality analysis (Poisson-distributedrepeated measures regression model) showed the consistent health effects of ozonerelated cardiovascular diseases mortality. Increasing an interquartile range (IQR)ozone exposure could be related to increasing 2-5% mortality risk of cardiovasculardiseases based on both daily and monthly analyses. The results of this study indicatethat increased ozone exposure is associated with higher cardiovascular disease mortality.The acute and longer term effects of ozone exposure related to cardiovasculardiseases mortality can be consistent and significant, 2-5% increased mortality riskwith an interquartile range (IQR) ozone exposure. Further study is suggested.M2-I.3 Hoekstra RM; mhoekstra@cdc.govCenters for Disease Control and PreventionMEETING NEAR-TERM NEEDS FOR THE ESTIMATED ATTRIBU-TION OF FOODBORNE ILLNESS TO FOOD COMMODITIESA comprehensive approach to estimating the attribution of foodborne illnessesto food commodities is a long-term activity that requires assembling and organizingmultiple bodies of disparate scientific information. While methods are beingdeveloped, regulatory agencies require interim guidance. That guidance should bemethodologically consistent with planned future attribution outputs. We describe aproject within the broad scope of attribution activities that will (1) differentiate foodcommodities according to whether they fall under the authority of FDA or FSIS, and(2) provide near-term summary descriptions through estimated attribution values forspecific pathogen-commodity pairs. The outputs can inform decision-making aboutpolicy. Our approach uses structured elicitation and draws on diverse sources of information,including case-control studies, outbreak investigations, expert elicitations,consumption-based models, and risk assessments. The framework described in (2)could be applied repeatedly because pathogen ecology, food contamination risk, andfood consumption are all dynamic. With periodic reassessments, the near-term outputscan be harmonized with the ongoing product of the comprehensive attributioneffort.M4-E.2 Hoelzer K, Pouillot R, Egan K, Dennis S; Karin.Hoelzer@fda.hhs.govFood and Drug Administration, Center for Food Safety and Applied NutritionPRODUCE CONSUMPTION PATTERNS IN THE U.S.: IMPORTANCEFOR PRODUCE RISK ASSESSMENTSA great variety of fruits and vegetables are available in the U.S., produced by ahighly diverse industry. Produce has been increasingly identified as vehicle for infec-