Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

Workshop - Thursday, December 8Full Day Workshop –8:30 am – 5:30 pmWK18: Probabilistic Risk Analysis with Hardly Any DataOrganizer: Scott Ferson$300 onsite registrationThis full-day tutorial introduces and compares methods for developinga probabilistic risk analysis when little or no empirical data are available to informthe risk model. The talks are organized around the basic problems thatrisk analysts face: not knowing the input distributions, not knowing their correlations,not being sure about the model itself, or even which variables shouldbe considered. Possible strategies include traditional approximative methodsand recent robust and bounding methods. Numerical examples are given thatillustrate the use of various methods including traditional moment propagation,PERT, maximum entropy, uniformity principle, probability bounds analysis,Bayesian model averaging and the old work horse, sensitivity analysis. Allof the approaches can be used to develop a fully probabilistic estimate usefulfor screening decisions and other planning. The advantages and drawbacksof the various approaches are examined. Essentially, the drawbacks are thatbounding approaches may say too little about risks, and the rough and readyapproximate methods may say too much. The discussion addresses how defensibledecisions can be made even when little information is available, andwhen one should break down and collect some data and, in that case, whatdata to look for. The presentation style will be casual and interactive. Participantswill receive a CD of the illustrations and numerical examples usedduring the tutorial.SRA 20129-12 DecemberHyatt Regency, San FranciscoCheck the website for detailswww.sra.org14