Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

T4-F.2 Smith MC, Rocks SA, Pollard SJT; mark.smith@cranfield.ac.ukCranfield UniversityLOCAL RISKS, STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES; IMPROVING RISKMANAGEMENT IN UK LOCAL GOVERNMENTOrganisations cannot prevent every risk from occurring, and must instead prioritisetheir responses on hazards by either prevention, managing them to an acceptedlevel or by tolerating them. Such decisions are based on the skills and knowledge ofindividual decision makers and also past experiences, and these are gained throughlearning processes. Local authorities in the UK have difficulty defining their risk appetitebecause of the diverse range of hazards they are responsible for managing,everything from preventing child abuse to responding to severe weather events (1).Subsequently, while some risks can be accepted others cannot, and this can makeit difficult to establish lessons. These challenges are further complicated by shiftinginstitutional architecture which looks to decentralise power to communities, whilebudgets are reduced (2). These circumstances present an opportunity to review pastpractices and to develop more effective solutions. This research demonstrates thecommonalities between the tensions and range of challenges within one sector in theUK, and the potential methods by which they can be addressed. A series of targetedinterviews (n=16) with a range of individuals who are employed to deal with riskhave been coded and used to identify a series of common themes, including learning,process, and trusted judgement. The identified themes were then investigated, usingpublished and grey literature, expert input and practionner interviews to develop anunderstanding of the tensions and methods for addressing them within this sector,and the potential application within a wider range of sectors. 1) Byrne, T. (2000)Local Government in Britain: Everyone’s Guide to how it all Works, 7th edition, Penguin,London 2) HM Government, (2010) Decentralisation and the Localism Bill:an essential guide, Communities and Local Government, LondonW4-H.4 Snekkenes E; einar.snekkenes@hig.noGjovik University College, NorwayGAME THEORETICAL RISK MANAGEMENTRisk management within information security (e.g. ISO 27005) usually mandatesthat experts identify threats, vulnerabilities, consequences and liklyhood. Inthe domain of information security, one usually assumes an active and potentiallyadaptive adversary. However, these methods very rarely mandates that the risk analystclarifies his underlying assumptions relative to factors that are critical when predictingthe liklyhood of future incidents. In practice, it appears to be the case that liklyhoodestimates are based on traces of historic events such as incident logs. As highlightedby Taleb in his book The Black Swan, history is not always a good teacher when itcomes to identifying catastrophic events. We suggest that we need to re-think whatkind of data to use when predicting the liklyhood of incidents. Rather than asking176experts about the liklyhood of various events, one should instead ask (potentially differentexperts) questions such as- Who are the stakeholders, What incentives do thestakeholders have? How do the stakeholders value the various outcomes/potentialincidents? What kind of information is available to the various stakeholders? Whatdecision strategies do the various stakeholders employ? We claim that if one is focusingon these issues rather than the direct elicitation of liklyhood guesses, one will bebetter equiped for identifying, preparing for and handling disasterous events - that forother stakeholders might be highly desirable. To adress this, we present a frameworkfor integrating game theoretic concepts into a classical risk management approach.We suggest that this approach provides benefits even if no equilibria are computedand that the benefits come from the fact that the game theoretic perspective forcesthe risk analyst to identify and consider factors that are essential when predicting theactions of an inteligent and adaptive adversary.P.5 Stasiewicz M, Martin N, Laue S, Wiedmann M; ms984@cornell.eduCornell UniversityINCREASING THE TEMPERATURE OF HIGH TEMPERATURE,SHORT TIME PASTEURIZATION MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF LIS-TERIOSIS FROM CONSUMPTION OF PASTEURIZED FLUID MILKWhile adequate pasteurization is critical to the safety and quality of fluid milk,previous research has suggested that modest increases above the minimum high-temperatureshort-time pasteurization temperature (72 o C for 15 s) can increase the subsequentoutgrowth of bacteria during refrigerated storage of milk. This study evaluatedhow an increase in pasteurization temperature from 72 o C to 82 o C affected growthof Listeria monocytogenes, a foodborne pathogen eliminated with proper pasteurizationbut of concern when milk is contaminated post-pasteurization. 12 8-gallonsamples of raw milk were collected from the same dairy farm over 24 months, splitand pasteurized for 25 s at 72 o C or 82 o C; after cooling milk was inoculated with L.monocytogenes and stored at 6 o C for 24 d for enumeration. Overall, milk pasteurizedat 82 o C showed greater L. monocytogenes growth, specifically (i) lag phase decreasedby 2.5 d (from 4.4 to 1.9 d, p