Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

isk appetite and optimal risk mitigation. Individual and collective professional judgmentcontributed to a nuanced and adaptable approach to the management of risk.The diverse, dynamic and unpredictable nature of the organization’s environmentprecluded some processes, such as technical designs and operational procedures,from being universally applicable. In these situations, the organization was reliant onthe judgment of its operatives to adapt processes to local conditions. Existing theory(4) typically distinguishes between general, codified knowledge and the contextualknowledge generated by sub-groups. Our findings show that effective organizationalwiderisk management requires both general and contextual knowledge. Thus, theability to develop and draw on contextual knowledge, through professional judgment,is a core competency contributing to risk maturity. We believe these findings provideimportant insights and guidance to risk managers seeking to build organizational riskmaturity. References: 1.HM Treasury.The Orange Book:Management of risk-principlesand concepts.London.Crown copyright,2004. 2.MacGillivray B,Sharp J,StruttJ,Hamilton P,Pollard S.Benchmarking Risk Management within the InternationalWater Utility Sector.Part I:Design of a Capability Maturity Methodology.Journal ofRisk Research,2007;10:85-104. 3.PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.Enterprise Risk ManagementIntegrated Framework:Executive Summery and Framework.AICPA,2004.4.Taylor J,Van Every E.The Emergent Organization:Communication as Its Site andSurface.Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,NJ,2000.P.107 Mazri C, Jovanovic A, Balos D; chabane.mazri@ineris.frINERISTOWARDS AN INTEGRATED APPROACH FOR MONITORING ENVI-RONMENT, HEALTH AND SAFETY ASPECTS WITHIN AN ORGANI-ZATIONManagement of systems requires, amongst many other things, a thorough andcontinuous understanding of the actual system’s state and its development trends.To do so, managers need to rely on both descriptive and explicative models of thesystem’s strengths and weaknesses. In case of complex systems, those needs becomemuch more difficult to achieve because of the:• interconnections between different dimensions or layers of the system;• holistic properties of the system making its final performances differentfrom the sum of its elements’ performances;• External, and thus uncontrolled, factors affecting the system.Environment, Health and Safety (EHS) management of technological systemsthreatening humans and environment fits totally this description. Therefore, as complexsystems, industrial installations require the development of dedicated monitoringsystems aiming to ensure that EHS management is correctly designed and implemented.The development of indicators as monitoring tools has been widely documentedin literature. Nevertheless, their use is still struggling with multiple challenges:• How to find an adequate balance between the need for multiple indicators soto deal with the various factors affecting EHS in one hand, and minimize the numberof indicators because of the reluctance of organizations to develop and implementnumerous and too heavy indicators?• How to coordinate the definition of indicators at various levels of the organizationin order to help improving communication and common understanding ofEHS issues?• How to ensure that organizations take benefit of indicators without facingcommon side effects as misinterpretations, management by numbers…This paper will suggest an approach aiming to help organizations to developa coherent and well adapted set of indicators for EHS management. According toa systemic vision, the various dimensions impacting EHS can be systematically addressedin an integrated way allowing a global optimization of the organization resources.P.46 Mazumdar S, Isukapalli S; sagnikmazumdar@gmail.comUMDNJ-RW Johnson Medical School and Rutgers UniversityCONTAMINANT DISPERSION MODELING IN COMPLEX URBANLANDSCAPES USING HYBRID COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAM-ICS TECHNIQUESSubstantial spatial variability exists in the concentrations of contaminants followingthe release of a contaminant in a complex urban landscape. This results insignificant uncertainties in the estimates of contaminant levels, exposures, and potentialrisks following accidental or intentional releases of chemical or biologicalagents. Characterizing the uncertainties and variability in exposure estimates throughmeasurements is expensive and prohibitive in most cases. Computational models canprovide data with high spatial and temporal resolution to investigate and characterizelocalized exposures. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models have beenwidely used to simulate localized contaminant dispersion. However they have limitationswith respect to providing real time or faster-than-real-time information oncontaminant transport and hence are not an effective tool in rapid Emergency EventResponse analysis. Fast computational models such as the Quick Urban & IndustrialComplex Dispersion (QUIC) provide efficient alternatives for studying dispersion incomplex landscapes. However, the accuracy of the QUIC model is limited becauseit uses empirical algorithms for estimating flow around buildings. An intermediatemodel called QUIC-CFD provides an alternative; while it computationally more demandingthan QUIC, it is faster than most CFD models, as it uses a single-equationturbulence model. This study compares the estimates from these three computationalmodels with measured tracer gas concentrations obtained from the Urban Disper-141