Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

M4-C.1 Koch HM, Angerer J; koch@ipa-dguv.deInstitute for Prevention and Occupational Medicine (IPA), Ruhr-University BochumDEVELOPMENT AND USE OF TOXICITY BASED HUMAN BIOMON-ITORING (HBM) VALUES BY THE GERMAN HUMAN BIOMONI-TORING COMMISSIONHuman biomonitoring (HBM) data is a very useful metric for assessing human’sexposures to chemicals in commerce. To assess the potential health risks associatedwith the presence of chemicals in blood, urine or other biological matrix requiresHBM assessment values. While HBM assessment values based on human exposureresponsedata remain the most highly valuable and interpretable assessment values,enough data exists for such values for very few chemicals. As a consequence, effortshave been undertaken to derive HBM assessment values in which external dose basedguidance values such as Tolerable Daily Intakes have been translated into equivalentbiomonitoring levels. The development of HBM values by the German HBM Commissionand Biomonitoring Equivalents by Summit Toxicology has resulted in conceptuallysimilar assessment values. The review of the development of these valuesprovided here demonstrates examples and approaches that can be used to broadenthe range of chemicals for which such assessment values can be derived. Efforts todate have resulted in the publication of HBM assessment values for more than 80chemicals, and now provide tools that can be used for the evaluation of HBM dataacross chemicals and populations.W4-E.2 Kokotovich AE, Kuzma J; koko0013@umn.eduUniversity of MinnesotaEXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FUTURES OF PLANT TARGETEDGENETIC MODIFICATIONFrom anticipatory governance to the study of plausibility, how experts involvedwith emerging technologies conceive of possible futures for these technologies is ofgrowing importance. Practically with regards to risk analysis, identifying plausiblerisks is essential to the problem formulation step of risk assessment, as only identifiedrisk hypotheses can be further examined. More broadly, how experts discern amongpotential futures influences what meanings of and concerns around these technologieswill be privileged and marginalized. Recent work has emphasized the importanceof examining the conflicting futures offered for these technologies by interrogatingthe differing logics and understandings that underpin these futures (e.g., Selin 2008).We contribute to this growing area of work through a study of experts involved withthe targeted genetic modification (TagMo) of plants. Targeted genetic modificationis a novel genetic engineering technique that employs homologous recombinationand has the potential, in plants, to allow for the genetic engineering of new traits andnew organisms. In this paper, we present the findings from 30 in-depth interviewswith a variety of plant TagMo experts, from those developing the technology to thosethinking about its potential societal impacts. Through these interviews, we asked:what potential futures and concerns do experts articulate concerning TagMo plantproducts? What differences underlie conflicting futures? We pay particular attentionto how interviewees reinforce and challenge risk analysis frameworks as a means tostudy the potential harms from TagMo plant products. Our findings point to neededareas for reflection as TagMo plant products become addressed through ecologicalrisk assessment and governance processes. Additionally, we provide insights on thechallenges that a diversity of expert views poses for risk analysis.P.34 Kotani K, Managaki S, Masunaga S; kotani-kensuke-sc@ynu.ac.jpYokohama National UniversityA STUDY ON ALTERNATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT SCHEME OFFRAME RETARDANTSWhen a chemical is identified to impact on human health or poses ecologicalrisk, it might be banned and replaced depending on availability of substitutes.With such a replacement policy, risk from the replaced chemical is naturally reduced,but risk from its substitute increases. This is called risk-trade-off between replacedchemical and its substitute. It is important to prove that the substitute chemical posesless risk than the one it replaced. In which case, how can we compare the risk ofreplaced chemical and its substitute? In this study, we focused on a frame retardant,Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and assumed its substitutes as a case study ofalternative risk assessment for chemicals in consumer products. This research hastwo objects; first, to predict exposure volume using mathematical models on alternativescenario. And second, to investigate variation in outcome when different riskassessment methods are used. To achieve the first objective, exposure assessment onalternative scenario was undertaken within a framework of uniform incombustibilitybetween HBCD and its substitutes. If emission rate from products of replacedchemical is known, it is possible to estimate that of the substitute. Exposure volumeof the substitute could also be estimated based on information of performance offrame retardant and physico-chemical property. To achieve the second objective, wecompared the results of deterministic risk assessment and probabilistic risk assessment.The method of deterministic risk assessment provided information regardingwhether risk exists or not on average or worst scenario. On the other hand methodof probabilistic risk assessment quantified in detail if probability of exposure volumeexceed reference-dose (RfD). The findings suggested that each approach might leadto a different conclusion.129