cal fields developed from meteorological observations and meteorological modeling.Subsequently, the model is applied <strong>for</strong> two future years (2040 and 2065) assuming arepresentative climate change scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC). These pollen simulations <strong>for</strong> multiple years are used to characterizeinter-annual variability in pollen emissions and ambient concentrations. These simulationsalso highlight the feasibility of this environmental and exposure modelingsystem in studying co-exposures to multiple contaminants such as gas pollutants andpollen.M4-E.5 Ivanek R, Grohn YT, Wells MT, Lembo Jr AJ, Sauders BD, WiedmannM, Park S-S; rivanek@cvm.tamu.eduTexas A&M University, Cornell University, Salisbury University, NYS Department of Agriculture& MarketsMODELING OF LANDSCAPE AND METEOROLOGICAL FACTORSINFLUENCING THE PROBABILITY OF PATHOGEN ISOLATIONFROM AN ENVIRONMENTAL LOCATION: LISTERIA SPP. IN THENATURAL ENVIRONMENT AS A MODEL SYSTEMListeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella spp. areamong the most important pathogens of relevance to produce food safety. Theseand many other pathogens have the ability to survive and multiply in abiotic environments,including on produce farms, representing a possible reservoir and source ofhuman exposure. Our objective was to develop a methodological framework to studyspatially explicit environmental and meteorological factors affecting the probabilityof pathogen isolation from a location. Isolation of Listeria spp. from the naturalenvironment was used as a model system. Logistic regression and classification treemethods were applied and their predictive per<strong>for</strong>mances were compared. Analysesrevealed that precipitation and occurrence of alternating freezing and thawing temperaturesprior to sample collection, loam soil, water storage to a soil depth of 50cm, slope gradient and cardinal direction to the North are key predictors <strong>for</strong> Listeriaisolation from a spatial location. Different combinations of factors affected the probabilityof Listeria isolation from the soil, vegetation and water layers of a location,indicating that the three layers represent different ecological niches <strong>for</strong> Listeria. Thepredictive power of classification trees was comparable to that of logistic regression.However, the <strong>for</strong>mer were easier to interpret, making them more appealing <strong>for</strong>field applications. Our study demonstrates how the analysis of a pathogen’s spatialdistribution improves understanding of the predictors of the pathogen’s presence ina particular location and could be used to propose novel control strategies to reducehuman environmental exposure. Implication of these findings to produce food safetywill be discussed using an ongoing study of spinach contamination with L. monocytogenes,E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella spp, and indicator microorganisms (Listeriaspp., generic E. coli, and coli<strong>for</strong>ms).122M4-H.3 Jackson BA, Frelinger DR, Hart J, Kavanagh J, Loidolt B, Wallace BA;briananthonyjackson@yahoo.comRAND CorporationADAPTIVE ADVERSARY RISK ANALYSIS: LINKING MODELS TO PRI-MARY DATA ON TERRORIST BEHAVIORAddressing adversary adaptation in risk analysis requires understanding theways they can respond to new defensive or other changes. They have a variety ofoptions, each with distinct direct and indirect risk effects. We demonstrate how adversarypreferences among those options can be assessed through illustrative analyses ofopen source descriptions of past group behavior, content analysis of jihadist internetcommunications, and declassified seized al-Qa’ida documents.P.77 Wang J, Kim S, Jung S; seoyongkim@ajou.ac.krAjou UniversityGOVERNMENT’S PERSUASION STRATEGIES AND ACCEPTANCE/REACTANCE EFFECT IN RISK CONFLICTSIn risk communication studies, government is generally one of key actors topersuade the public. In the persuasion process, it mobilizes the diverse persuasivestrategies such as highlighting the higher benefit/low cost, trust worship and positiveimage about risk objects. However, there are few studies the effects of government’spersuasion strategies. Such fewer studies come from lack of appropriate theory andmethod about government’s persuasion strategies under risk communication literature.Our studies will explore what kinds of and how much persuasion strategies takeeffects on changing the public by using survey experiment method. Survey experimentsconstruct natural situation by using survey questionnaire in which respondents’original attitude toward specific topics is checked and then rechecked the attitudechange after giving intended stimuli to respondent. Even if survey experiment can’tcontrol all of exogenous factors, it has take advantage of well explaining the realisticsituations with strong validity. We will apply the survey experiment to the case ofMad Cow Disease which made serious social conflicts in Korea, 2008. In this case,although government tries to persuade the public that there are no risks related withMad Cow, it faces the strong resistance from the public. In the survey experiment,we will first check, in survey questionnaire, the respondents’ original position towardMad Cow and then recheck their attitude change (acceptance or reactance) after givingthem stimuli, all of which the government used as persuasion strategies. Thosepersuasive stimuli include mitigating or reacting the perceived risk, increasing thebenefit, building up the trust, providing the knowledge and attenuating the negativestigma, all of which are related with MCD. By comparing the original attitudes withthose which are measured after giving those stimuli, we will know the degree of theeffectiveness which each persuasion strategy has.
M3-G.3 Jardine CG, Driedger SM, Furgal CM; cindy.jardine@ualberta.caUniversity of AlbertaEVOLUTION OF TRUST IN RISK COMMUNICATION: THE DEVEL-OPMENT OF THE GIANT MINE REMEDIATION PLAN AND THEYELLOWKNIVES DENE FIRST NATIONGiant Mine is a <strong>for</strong>mer gold mining operation located five km north of Yellowknifein the Northwest Territories in Canada. The mine produced more than 7million ounces of gold over 50 plus years of operation. However, during the roastingof the ore to release the gold, toxic arsenic trioxide dust was produced. Whenactivity at the mine ceased, the Government of Canada entered into a CooperationAgreement with the Government of the Northwest Territories to remediate the site.The Remediation Plan, developed using a team of external experts, called <strong>for</strong> thelong-term storage and maintenance of the 237,000 tonnes of arsenic trioxide dustusing the “frozen block method”, whereby designated areas around and within eachof the underground chambers and stopes will be frozen and kept frozen over thelong term using thermosyphons. The plan was submitted to the Mackenzie ValleyLand and Water Board as part of a water licence application in October, 2007. TheYellowknives Dene First Nation (YKDFN) opposed the immediate approval of thelicence on the basis that “the technology which is being proposed is relatively new, isuntried and must be examined in depth...” Through entering into an unprecedentedpartnership with the City of Yellowknife and a local environmental advocate, theYKDFN were successful in <strong>for</strong>cing the proposed remediation plan to undergo a fullenvironmental assessment. This ongoing case study looks at how various factorshave intersected to produce community distrust of (and lack of cooperation with) therisk remediation process: (1) a historical legacy of mistrust between the communityand responsible agency; (2) limited community control over the risk decision; (3) aconsultation process that involved complex and overwhelming in<strong>for</strong>mation; and (4)a perceived bypassing of the regulatory process. The challenges created by the complexityof this issue in the development and application of the common evaluativetrust framework will be discussed.P.31 Jiang CB, Chien LC, Han BC, Hsu CS; lcchien@tmu.edu.twTMUBLOOD MERCURY CONCENTRATION AND FISH CONSUMPTION:RISK AND PERCEPTIONS OF RISK AMONG URBAN AND COASTALMOTHER IN TAIWANThis study was designed to examine mercury concentrations in maternal blood,cord blood, and placental tissue of urban and coastal mothers in Taiwan, in relationto their perception of risk associated with fish consumption. Base on calculated ahazard quotient (HQ) to evaluate the impact of the consumption of fish commonlyeaten by pregnant women and assess their exposure to mercury. We also assess whichmedia are more effective <strong>for</strong> providing useful risk in<strong>for</strong>mation to the public in Taiwan.The average mercury concentration in maternal blood, cord blood, and placentaltissue was 9.02±3.22 qg/l; 12.18±5.92 qg/l; 19.88±11.07 ng/g <strong>for</strong> the metropolitanmothers and 3.46±2.62 qg/l; 8.62±4.90 qg/l; 10.07±7.97 ng/g <strong>for</strong> the mothers livingon the coast. The differences between the two groups were significant (p
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M2-C.1 Abraham IM, Henry S; abraham
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