Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

W2-H.2 Demuth JL, Morss RE, Morrow BH, Lazo JL; jdemuth@ucar.eduNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchCOMMUNICATION SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES OF THE HUR-RICANE WARNING SYSTEM: A CASE STUDYHurricanes pose significant physical, emotional, and financial risks to the peoplethey threaten. One way to reduce risks and promote more effective public decisionmakingis by evaluating the process through which hurricane information is generatedand communicated. This jointly funded NSF and NOAA project advances understandingof hurricane warning system communication via a case study approach offour key actors in the Miami area: National Weather Service (NWS) National HurricaneCenter forecasters, NWS Weather Forecast Office forecasters, emergencymanagers, and radio and television media. Based on task-activity observations of theforecasters and semi-structured interviews with all groups, we examine the groups’job roles and goals, how information is generated and flows among the groups andto the public, and group members’ perceptions of each other and of the public. Thispresentation will discuss key inter-organizational successes and challenges of the hurricanewarning system that emerged from this study, and it will discuss their implicationsfor the hurricane risk information that is ultimately communicated to the public.M2-C.2 DeVito MJ, Tice R; devitom@niehs.nih.govNational Institute of Environmental Health SciencesTOX21: ACTIVITIES OF THE U.S. NATIONAL TOXICOLOGY PRO-GRAM (NTP)The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences/NTP entered into aMemorandum of Understanding with the NIH Chemical Genomics Center and theEnvironmental Protection Agency’s National Center for Computational Toxicologyin 2008 on the research, development, validation, and translation of new and innovativein vitro and lower organism test methods that characterize key steps in toxicitypathways. This collaborative effort, known informally as Tox21, now includes theU.S. Food and Drug Administration. As part of the Tox21 efforts, the NTP has(1) produced a large library of environmentally relevant compounds for screeningacross toxicity pathways; (2) identified and/or supported the development of assayssuitable for use in quantitative high throughput and high content screens (qHTS); (3)established a Worm-Tox Screening Facility with the goal of developing toxicologicalassays using the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans; (4) developed statistically-basedapproaches for distinguishing between active, inactive, and inconclusive responses inthese screens and informatic tools for identifying predictive toxicity patterns; (5) expandedthe NTP’s publicly accessible Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS)database to contain all Tox21-related data as well as the NTP historical data; (6) conductedqHTS studies to probe mechanisms of inter-individual susceptibility to toxicants;(7) evaluated molecular tools for mining the formalin fixed, paraffin embeddedanimal tissues in the NTP Tissue Archives for predictive gene signatures; (8) supportedassay and informatic developments through the NIEHS Small Business InnovativeResearch contract award process; and (9) developed a targeted testing program thatevaluates predictive models built on Tox21 approaches. Advantages and limitationsof these activities will be presented.T2-B.2 Dickey R; robert.dickey@fda.hhs.govFDA, Gulf Coast Seafood LaboratoryA RETROSPECTIVE ON THE MULTIAGENCY RESPONSE TO SEA-FOOD SAFETY FOLLOWING THE 2010 DEEPWATER HORIZON OILSPILLDuring the period of April 20 through July 15, 2010 approximately 210 milliongallons of crude oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) following the explosionand sinking of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) drilling platform. The magnitudeof the DWH spill threatened all 5 states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, and crossedstatutory boundaries at state and federal levels. Federal and State Agencies respondedto the spill in a coordinated manner to institute a unified seafood safety protocol forthe testing and re-opening of GOM fisheries. The seafood safety risk assessment, aintegral component of the protocol, followed the approach taken by FDA in 1990after the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Polycyclic aromatichydrocarbons (PAH) are recognized internationally as the most appropriate chemicalindicators of the potential human health risk posed by crude oil residues in seafood.A toxicologically representative subset of 13 PAH and their alkylated homologueswas selected for critical analysis of impacted seafood in the aftermath of the DWHspill. A set of calculations was used to determine seafood PAH tissue concentrationsabove which a conservatively estimated 10-5 upper-bound risk level for low dose lifetimecancer is exceeded. Levels of concern for non-cancer risks were evaluated basedon EPA IRIS reference dose values. Values for other event-specific variables in thecalculations were selected from the most recent information available, and historicdata from oil spill outcomes dating back to Exxon Valdez. More than 10,000 seafoodspecimens were sampled through the periods of fishery closures, re-openings, andextended surveillance after fishery re-opening. Analyses were conducted at 7 laboratoriesfrom the National Marine Fisheries Service and Food and Drug Administration.Result of analyses from all performing laboratories are consistent and 100 to1000-fold below levels of concern established in the unified seafood safety protocol.T2-B.3 Dickhoff WW, Walker C, Ylitalo G, Wilson S, Stein J; walton.w.dickhoff@noaa.govNOAA FisheriesASSESSING SEAFOOD SAFETY DURING THE DEEPWATER HORI-ZON OIL SPILL MC252The 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill raised widespread concern about thesafety of Gulf seafood. In response, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and87