stochastic game, players coordinated to reduce uncertain losses; in the deterministicgame, the payoff equaled the expected value in the stochastic game. Each of 6players chose StrategyA(with positive cost) or StrategyB (free). Two Nash equilibriaexisted: All-A&All-B. All-A yielded higher payoffs and was Pareto-optimal,but arational player should choose A if and only if at least 4 of the other players choseA. 48 groups of 6 players were assigned to a 2x2 design: GameType(stochastic/deterministic)and Subsidy(present/absent). Play was repeated <strong>for</strong> 20 periods <strong>for</strong> eachgroup. In the Subsidy-present condition,2 out of 6 players were randomly assignedin each period to pay a lower-than-normal cost <strong>for</strong> A. Players, including the unsubsidizedplayers, were more likely to choose A with Subsidy present. Social Welfarewas 7% higher in this condition. In addition, following the subsidy-present game,we ran a second game with subsidy removed. High coordination continued in mostgroups with stochastic payoffs, but declined <strong>for</strong> groups with deterministic ones. Apost-game survey showed that in the deterministic game, 43% of players believedthat subsidy was the only reason to choose A, and that others would choose A onlywhen subsidized. In the stochastic game, only 22% of players held this view: mostregarded A as a safer option, and assumed that others also preferred reduced risk,once the subsidy helped the group reached a higher coordination level. Thus, subsidycrowded out other possible reasons <strong>for</strong> cooperation in the deterministic setting, butsafety was the principal reason <strong>for</strong> coordination in the stochastic setting. The aboveresults imply that a limited budget might best be used to support temporary subsidiesin stochastic settings, spread among many groups. In deterministic settings subsidiesmight need to be maintained indefinitely and might crowd out cooperation based onsocial expectation.M3-I.1 Goodman JE; jgoodman@gradientcorp.comGradientWHY META-ANALYSES AND SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS COME TO DIF-FERENT CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FORMALDEHYDE AND LEUKE-MIAMeta-analyses and systematic reviews can be helpful tools <strong>for</strong> assessing causation.A meta-analysis goes beyond a systematic review in that it is a quantitativesynthesis of the results of individual studies that can lead to a greater precision ofrisk estimates and reduces the probability of false negative results. Because metaanalysescombine study outcomes, they are only appropriate if studies are testing thesame hypothesis. When heterogeneous studies or those with different hypothesesbeing tested are meta-analyzed, the overall risk estimate can be misleading. To usethe results of a meta-analysis in a risk assessment, one must take these factors intoaccount. This will be demonstrated by recent meta-analyses and systematic reviewsof <strong>for</strong>maldehyde and leukemia risk, which come to different conclusions.106W3-F.1 Gormley AM, Pollard SJT, Mauelshagen CCranfield UniversitySECURING IMPROVED RISK GOVERNANCE FOR WATER UTILITIESWater utilities are charged with a central role in public health protection (1).International initiatives reasserting the value of preventative risk management withinthe water sector have generated an improved commitment to better risk governance.But what does it take to make good risk management ‘stick’ within the internationalwater sector? Here we summarise our research to date, reflecting on the use of riskanalysis tools, the risk management architecture constructed within water utilities,what makes <strong>for</strong> mature risk governance and the cultural items required <strong>for</strong> a pervasiveculture of mindfulness (2).Regarding the state of risk management and risk governance in water utilities,the findings show that utilities often see risk at the corporate level and not reallybeyond, rather than aspiring to put risk management into the long term plan. Manysenior managers are reluctant to make a decision unless they are completely certainabout it. Yet they recognise that effective risk management can positively influencethe ability to achieve support from regulators and customers.Reporting on recent research specifically addressing higher levels of risk managementmaturity, we discuss aspects of risk reporting and visualisation, the role andcontent of Board level debate on risk and the importance of managing risk knowledge.The water sector is shown to be at a crossroads between reactive and proactiverisk management and we offer a <strong>for</strong>ward road map that will allow it to breakthroughand secure better operational, reputational and strategic value from its risk managementef<strong>for</strong>ts.W1-I.1 Gray GM, Francis RA, Carruthers JI, Malcyznski LA, Lee RC; gmgray@gwu.eduGeorge Washington University, Sandia National Laboratories, Neptune and Company, Inc.PREFERENCES RELATED TO URBAN SUSTAINABILITY UNDERRISK, UNCERTAINTY, AND DYNAMICS: A COMBINED ELICITA-TION AND MODELING APPROACHNumerous older cities in the US are experiencing a state of decline, due toshrinking populations, economic hardship, and many other factors. Large areas ofthese cities are comprised of contaminated and vacant land. We explore the decisioncontext around land redevelopment approaches focused upon reducing risk, improvingquality of life, and fostering sustainability. Characterizing the preferences and objectivesof diverse stakeholders in a multi-attribute framework may improve decisionsand planning. However, traditional decision analytic approaches tend to be ‘static’,and do not capture the temporal and spatial dynamics of this problem. We proposea framework that integrates stated and revealed preferences in a dynamic modelingenvironment designed to capture key attributes of urban sustainability identified by
stakeholders. The utility of this model will be demonstrated through an observationalexperiment. Key attributes and preferences will be elicited from a population ofstakeholders in a Web environment. After eliciting these preferences, the participantswill then engage in a dynamic modeling exercise in which they are able to interactivelyexplore land use decisions considering the complexities of urban dynamics; thenumerous tradeoffs, risks, and uncertainties; the resource constraints; and so on. Wecall this model DMASE (<strong>for</strong> Dynamic/Multi-Attribute/Spatially-Explicit). Preferencesover the key attributes will then be elicited again. We hypothesize that the keyattributes and preferences will change appreciably based upon interaction with theDMASE model. Additionally, the model can be modified in an iterative fashion tocapture the decision context and preferences of the participants in a more meaningfulway. This work will lead to a decision support tool that will allow stakeholders anddecision-makers in declining cities to make more in<strong>for</strong>med decisions about changesin the complex urban environment.P.39 Greene CW, Goeden HM, Dady JM, Ross M, Shubat PJ; christopher.greene@state.mn.usMinnesota Department of HealthIDENTIFYING AND EVALUATING DRINKING WATER CONTAMI-NANTS OF EMERGING CONCERN: A STATE PERSPECTIVEContaminants of Emerging Concern (CECs), substances <strong>for</strong> which humanhealth risks are not well understood (whether due to new toxicity or exposure in<strong>for</strong>mation,or a lack of in<strong>for</strong>mation on risks), pose a challenge to public health agenciesworking to ensure the safety of drinking water. The Minnesota Department ofHealth (MDH) has completed its first two years of work under a new initiative toproactively identify drinking water CECs, evaluate the potential <strong>for</strong> human exposure,and develop health-based guidance values to assist risk managers in making publichealth decisions. During that time, MDH has devised a multi-stage process <strong>for</strong>screening chemicals based on both toxicological and exposure-based criteria. MDHelicited CEC nominations from other state and federal agencies, from the public, andfrom within the department. Nominated chemicals represented a variety of chemicalclasses, including pesticides, industrial chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and personal careproducts. All nominated chemicals meeting a broadly defined definition of CEC underwenta screening level review <strong>for</strong> toxicity (potency, severity, endocrine activity) andexposure potential (occurrence, persistence/fate, patterns of use.) Chemicals identifiedas high priority underwent a higher-level toxicological evaluation, including thedevelopment of guidance values where feasible, and further characterization of thepotential <strong>for</strong> human exposure. Development of the program in its first two years hasbeen characterized by (1) an emphasis on process development; (2) thorough analysisof toxicological data <strong>for</strong> the development of guidance values; (3) comparison ofknown or potential exposures to guidance values; (4) input from external workgroupson chemical assessment and communication with the public; and (5) research intonew methodologies suitable to the unique requirements of CECs. Project outcomeswill be presented <strong>for</strong> ten chemicals, including triclosan, DEET, TCEP, acetaminophen,and carbamazepine.P.105 Grespin ME, Le MH, Panko JM; mgrespin@chemrisk.comChem<strong>Risk</strong>SAFETY DATA SHEET ALTERATION DURING ALIGNMENT WITHTHE GLOBALLY HARMONIZED SYSTEM OF CLASSIFICATION(GHS) AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS,SUPPLIERS, AND DISTRIBUTORSThe Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has issued a noticeof proposed rulemaking to align its current Hazard Communication Standard(HCS) with provisions set <strong>for</strong>th by the United Nations’ Globally Harmonized Systemof Classification (GHS). Among the changes expected to be made by OSHA whenit adopts the GHS guidelines, safety data sheets (SDSs) will be developed or existingOSHA material safety data sheets (MSDSs) will be modified to reflect the explicitenvironmental, physical, and health hazard criteria set by the GHS. This presentationwill discuss in detail the changes to SDSs resulting from adoption of the GHS.Whereas the current per<strong>for</strong>mance-based HCS requires inclusion only of broad categoricalin<strong>for</strong>mation, the specification-based GHS SDS will require that 16 specificheadings be included in each chemical SDS, with each section providing a more detaileddescription of its relevant components than is currently required by OSHA.Covered under the new 16 heading <strong>for</strong>mat will include topics related to product andhazard identification, chemical composition and reactivity, regulatory and transportationin<strong>for</strong>mation, and extensive health and safety guidelines. Implementation of theserequirements is expected to decrease incidence of worker illness and injury comparedto the current HCS, but may pose challenges to manufacturers, suppliers, or distributorsattempting to comply with the new GHS SDS provisions.W3-I.2 Grieshop AP, Marshall JD, Kandlikar M; agrieshop@ncsu.eduNorth Carolina State University; University of Minnesota; University of British ColumbiaHEALTH AND CLIMATE BENEFITS OF COOKSTOVE REPLACE-MENT OPTIONSThe health and climate impacts of available household cooking options in developingcountries vary sharply. Here, we develop and apply a simple, extensible analyticalframework to compare stove options across multiple impacts (health; climate)and quantify the potential co-benefits from upgraded fuel and stove combinations.Health impacts are quantified via estimated personal PM intake and a recently proposedlog-linear intake-response relationship applicable to PM concentrations wellabove typical urban levels. Climate impacts are estimated using the global warmingcommitment on a 100 year time horizon, which gives a conservative (low) estimate107
- Page 4 and 5:
Ballroom C1Monday10:30 AM-NoonM2-A
- Page 9 and 10:
US Environmental Protection Agency
- Page 11 and 12:
Workshops - Sunday, December 4Full
- Page 13 and 14:
WK9: Eliciting Judgments to Inform
- Page 15 and 16:
These freely available tools apply
- Page 17 and 18:
Plenary SessionsAll Plenary Session
- Page 19 and 20:
10:30 AM-NoonRoom 8/9M2-F Panel Dis
- Page 21 and 22:
1:30-3:00 PMRoom 8/9M3-F Symposium:
- Page 23 and 24:
4:50 pm M4-E.5Modeling of landscape
- Page 25 and 26:
P.35 Health risk assessment of meta
- Page 27 and 28:
Works-In-ProgressP.99 Assessing the
- Page 29 and 30:
10:30 AM-NoonRoom 8/9T2-F Error in
- Page 31 and 32:
1:30-3:00 PMRoom 8/9T3-F AppliedMet
- Page 34 and 35:
8:30-10:00 AMBallroom C1W1-A Sympos
- Page 36 and 37:
10:30 AM-NoonBallroom C1W2-A Commun
- Page 38:
1:30-3:00 PMBallroom C1W3-A Communi
- Page 41 and 42:
3:30-4:30 PMRoom 8/9W4-F Environmen
- Page 43 and 44:
oth recent advances, and ongoing ch
- Page 45 and 46:
M3-H Symposium: Analyzing and Manag
- Page 47 and 48:
Part 2, we consider the use of expe
- Page 49 and 50:
T4-E Symposium: Food Safety Risk Pr
- Page 51 and 52:
While integral to guiding the devel
- Page 53 and 54:
have contributed to past difficulti
- Page 55 and 56:
M2-C.1 Abraham IM, Henry S; abraham
- Page 58 and 59: serious accident of the Tokyo Elect
- Page 60 and 61: een found that independence assumpt
- Page 62 and 63: W4-I.1 Beach RH, McCarl BA, Ohrel S
- Page 64 and 65: M4-A.1 Berube DM; dmberube@ncsu.edu
- Page 66 and 67: W4-A.1 Boerner FU, Jardine C, Dried
- Page 69 and 70: M2-G.1 Brink SA, Davidson RA; rdavi
- Page 71 and 72: M4-H.5 Buede DM, Ezell BC, Guikema
- Page 73 and 74: same scientists’ environmental he
- Page 75 and 76: periods of time. Successful adaptat
- Page 77 and 78: P.123 Charnley G, Melnikov F, Beck
- Page 79 and 80: derived from mouse and rat testes t
- Page 81 and 82: esources under any circumstance in
- Page 83 and 84: W4-B.3 Convertino M, Collier ZA, Va
- Page 85 and 86: addition, over 10% thought that eve
- Page 87 and 88: Reference Dose (RfD). The average e
- Page 89 and 90: W2-H.2 Demuth JL, Morss RE, Morrow
- Page 91 and 92: T4-H.4 Dingus CA, McMillan NJ, Born
- Page 93 and 94: methods research priorities and pot
- Page 95 and 96: W3-A.2 Eggers SL, Thorne SL, Sousa
- Page 97 and 98: tions) were < 1 for sub-populations
- Page 99 and 100: sociated with model error. Second,
- Page 101 and 102: inter-donation interval to mitigate
- Page 103 and 104: Fukushima nuclear accident coverage
- Page 105 and 106: for growth inhibitor use and retail
- Page 107: W1-C.1 Goble R, Hattis D; rgoble@cl
- Page 111 and 112: T2-E.4 Guidotti TL; tee.guidotti@gm
- Page 113 and 114: M4-C.2 Haines DA, Murray JL, Donald
- Page 115 and 116: providing normative information of
- Page 117 and 118: then allow both systems to operate
- Page 119 and 120: tious disease outbreaks. Several cl
- Page 121 and 122: P.122 Hosseinali Mirza V, de Marcel
- Page 123 and 124: W2-B.1 Isukapalli SS, Brinkerhoff C
- Page 125 and 126: M3-G.3 Jardine CG, Driedger SM, Fur
- Page 127 and 128: P.88 Johnson BB, Cuite C, Hallman W
- Page 129 and 130: metrics to provide risk management
- Page 131 and 132: M4-C.1 Koch HM, Angerer J; koch@ipa
- Page 133 and 134: certainty factors) and comparative
- Page 135 and 136: T3-D.4 LaRocca S, Guikema SD, Cole
- Page 137 and 138: P.71 Lemus-Martinez C, Lemyre L, Pi
- Page 139 and 140: of excretion, and the increased che
- Page 141 and 142: M2-D.4 MacKenzie CA, Barker K; cmac
- Page 143 and 144: isk appetite and optimal risk mitig
- Page 145 and 146: ameters, and enabled a more robust
- Page 147 and 148: over the nature and format of infor
- Page 149 and 150: Analysis (PRA). Existing parametric
- Page 151 and 152: explosion of a bomb in a building,
- Page 153 and 154: T3-G.3 Nascarella MA; mnascarella@g
- Page 155 and 156: corresponding slowdown in container
- Page 157 and 158: ing the scope and usage of the cybe
- Page 159 and 160:
dose for a variety of exposure scen
- Page 161 and 162:
“nanofibers”) is relatively und
- Page 163 and 164:
ment (CEA), which provides both a f
- Page 165 and 166:
T3-D.2 Resurreccion JZ, Santos JR;
- Page 167 and 168:
shore wind turbines have yet been b
- Page 169 and 170:
T2-D.3 Rypinski AD, Cantral R; Arth
- Page 171 and 172:
time and temperature, determining t
- Page 173 and 174:
esponse to requests from the EC, th
- Page 175 and 176:
ers and inspectors. Analysis examin
- Page 177 and 178:
smoked salmon, and associated expos
- Page 179 and 180:
and 95th percentiles). Increasing t
- Page 181 and 182:
esponse relationship for B. anthrac
- Page 183 and 184:
variation on Day 0. Results showed
- Page 185 and 186:
sidered. The most significant resul
- Page 187 and 188:
lived in a apartment (not including
- Page 189 and 190:
W3-C.4 von Stackelberg KE; kvon@eri
- Page 191 and 192:
P.12 Waller RR, Dinis MF; rw@protec
- Page 193 and 194:
W2-B.6 Wang D, Collier Z, Mitchell-
- Page 195 and 196:
iomonitoring “equivalent” level
- Page 197 and 198:
T4-H.2 Winkel D, Good K, VonNiederh
- Page 199 and 200:
mation insufficiency, risk percepti
- Page 201 and 202:
choices. This work examines these s
- Page 203 and 204:
sults and possible intended or unin
- Page 205 and 206:
AAbadin HG.................... 36,
- Page 207 and 208:
Gray GM............................
- Page 209 and 210:
Peters E...........................
- Page 211 and 212:
SECOND FLOOR Floor MapConvention Ce