Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

P.123 Charnley G, Melnikov F, Beck B; charnley@healthriskstrategies.comHealthRisk Strategies, GradientARSENIC IN APPLE JUICE: MYTH VERSUS REALITYNaturally occurring arsenic occurs at trace concentrations in apple juice. Since2009 there have been isolated reports of arsenic concentrations in commercial samplesof apple juice that exceed USEPA’s maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenicin drinking water. Public concern became focused on such reports in September2011 in response to a feature presentation on a popular daytime television show. Inresponse to that concern, USFDA and the juice producers retested the apple juicesamples and reported results that exceeded neither USEPA’s arsenic MCL nor USF-DA’s level of concern for arsenic in juice. This presentation will compare the differentarsenic concentrations reported in apple juice, the federal agencies’ different healthbasedexposure limits, and the conclusions about risk that were drawn, evaluating thesources of the differences. In this case, risk communication messages were influencedstrongly by the analytic methodologies used and the federal contaminant limit comparisonschosen.T2-J.3 Chatterjee S, Abkowitz MD; chatterjee.samrat@gmail.comCREATE- University of Southern California, Vanderbilt UniversityA FRAMEWORK FOR REGIONAL ALL-HAZARDS RISK ASSESSMENTAND MITIGATIONAccidents, natural disasters, and terrorist acts occurring worldwide are heighteningsociety’s concern for the risks affecting our lives. It has also led to the realizationthat a more systematic and holistic approach to risk management is needed.The authors have addressed this issue by initiating development of an all-hazardsrisk management (AHRM) approach, taking multiple disaster risks into consideration.The methodological framework includes truck transportation of hazardous materials,earthquakes, and terrorist acts as three risks threatening a government jurisdiction.The paper describes the AHRM methodology and presents its application in a casestudy region in the United States. In addition to demonstrating how disaster riskscompare within a region, the paper discusses how a risk manager can use these resultsto establish risk priorities and develop mitigation strategies that offer the greatestreturn on investment.T4-A.4 Chauvet S, Bouder FE, Le Louet H; f.bouder@maastrichtuniversity.nlMaastricht UniversityPERCEIVED AND MANAGED RISKS OF BIOTECHNOLOGIES INTHE MEDICAL FIELD: A STUDY OF FRENCH EXPERTS’ VIEWSIn France, claims have been made that up to 40% of all medical errors maybe attributed to prescription/medication errors (Le Parisien, 2009). Medical errorshave been subject to numerous investigations in hospitals (Leape et al 1994; Bateset al, 1995; Dean et al, 2002; von Laue et al 2003; Knudsen et al, 2007; Aronson,2009a). Yet, specific information about the risks of highly innovative products, forexample biotechnologies, remains more limited. In addition, and unlike biologicalfood products, little is known of expert views and public perceptions of medical biotechnologies.How should risk managers deal with biomedicines? Can they maintainthe right balance between innovation and acceptable levels of safety? Is the currentrisk management approach likely to build or destroy trust? What about the new risksassociated with innovative - and often complex- treatments administered in hospitals?This article conveys the results of a pilot study that focussed on the risks of medicalbiotechnologies in France. The study was developed in 2010-2011 and concentratedon collecting and analysing the views of key experts, primarily within Paris hospitals(Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris -AP-HP), which are one of the largestmedical complexes in Europe. The study used a mental model approach to elicitexpert views as a first steps towards defining an effective communication strategyto accompany the medical applications of biotechnologies. The study shows that,although most experts were aware of significant risks, they maintained a strong optimismbias. Broader perceptions or critical views about biotechnology were largelyignored, which suggests that medical professions are not prepared to face public worries.These results led us to provide key recommendations to support risk-based communicationapproaches that pay more attention to the wider social context.M3-E.2 Chen Y; yuhuan.chen@fda.hhs.govFood and Drug Administration - CFSANFROM EXPERIMENTAL INFECTIONS IN ANIMALS TO QUANTIFY-ING SUBTYPES IN FOODS: ADVANCEMENTS AND CHALLENGESOF DATA COLLECTION FOR LISTERIA DOSE-RESPONSEData from multiple research fields contributes to the understanding of thecomplex dose-response relationship for listeriosis in humans. Participating expertsat the Listeria Dose-Response Workshop co-sponsored by IRAC/JIFSAN shared recentdata and knowledge about the physiopathology of L. monocytogenes infectionsand differences among human and animal hosts, distribution of L. monocytogenessubtypes in ready-to-eat foods, and fetal mortality and systemic infections in animals.Significant advancements have been made in the characterization of L. monocytogenessubtypes and elucidation of L. monocytogenes invasion of epithelial cells uponinteractions between the bacterial internalins and specific host receptors. While humansexpress functional receptors, different expression of these receptors occurs inanimals (e.g., guinea pigs, mice, and gerbils) at different host barriers (e.g., intestinaland placental barriers). A diverse range of L. monocytogenes subtypes with differentin vivo virulence potential, as well as varying prevalence and concentration distribution,has been found in ready-to-eat foods. Virulence-attenuated subtypes (e.g.,with mutations in the gene encoding internalin A) are commonly found in foods butonly rarely associated with human cases. Dose-response data were reported for fetal75