Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

shore wind turbines have yet been built in the U.S. We derive two analytical probabilitymodels to estimate the number of turbines that would be destroyed by hurricanes in asingle offshore wind farm. A novel modification of a Phase-Type distribution modelsthe case that turbines are not replaced if they are destroyed, and a compound Poissondistribution models the case with replacement after each hurricane. We apply thesemodels to estimate the risk to offshore wind farms in four representative locationsin the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal waters of the U.S. In the most vulnerable areas nowbeing actively considered by developers, nearly half the turbines in a farm are likely tobe destroyed in a 20-year period. We show that adding backup power so a turbine’s nacellecan yaw to follow the wind direction changes in a hurricane significantly reducesthe risk the turbine will be destroyed. Reasonable mitigation measures - increasingthe design reference wind load, ensuring that the nacelle can be turned into the wind,and building most wind plants in the areas with lower risk - can greatly enhance theprobability that offshore wind can help to meet the United States’ electricity needs.W1-A.1 Rosoff H, John R, Burns W; rosoff@usc.eduUniversity of Southern California, CREATEINCORPORATING A VALUE-FOCUSED DECISION MODEL OF PUB-LIC RESPONSE INTO SETTING RECOVERY POLICY FOLLOWING ALARGE-SCALE BIOLOGICAL DISASTERThe 2001 Anthrax incidents in the U.S. caused widespread anxiety and requiredlengthy and costly remediation for just small areas. A large-scale anthrax attack wouldresult in mass casualties and have major economic consequences for the affected area,and potentially for the nation as a whole. The extent to which an impacted area recoversfrom such losses depends in large part on the decision making of local residents.In this study, we explored the behavioral decision-making of local residents and businessowners in the Seattle, Washington area in response to a large-scale terrorist attackusing weaponized anthrax. The focus was on structuring a decision model aroundthe objectives and motivations that drive local residents’ and business owners’ decisionmaking during disaster recovery. This understanding produces insight critical tothe development and implementation of recovery policies. To build the decisionmodel, we utilize scenario simulation, a methodology that uses video simulation of anews report, to immerse respondents in the grim details of the anthrax attack. Fromlive group scenario simulations with key stakeholders in Seattle, we developed anunderlying risk model as a means for structuring Seattleites decision-making duringthe scenario (influence diagram). The attributes, scales, tradeoffs and uncertaintiesthat characterize the decisions about responding to and recovering from the anthraxattack were also elicited. Subsequently, we conducted individual web-based scenariosimulations to determine how prevalent certain attitudes, perceptions and behavioralintentions were among Seattleites regarding the anthrax attack. From residents weobtained estimates of those who would leave Seattle temporarily, or permanently.From business owners we collected similar estimates on whether they would relocatetheir business temporarily, or permanently. We also cataloged the reasons motivatingthese decisions and evaluated the responses to various proposed stakeholder-specificmitigation policies.M3-H.1 Ross RG; bob.ross@dhs.govDepartment of Homeland Security, Science and Technology DirectorateTHE IMPORTANCE OF RISK TYPE IN SELECTING APPROPRIATEANALYTIC APPROACHES AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIESBased on an historical examination of the development of risk managementand various approaches to risk analysis/assessment, this paper will present a fourtieredrisk typology based, not on the substance of a given risk issue (e.g., industrialhygiene, food safety, financial risk, transportation safety), but rather on fundamentalcharacteristics related to the identification, assessment/analysis and management ofrisk. Central to the development of the proposed typology is the argument that mostof the currently used analytical approaches and managerial responses to risk weredeveloped for risks with very different characteristics than those exhibited by manyemergent 21st Century risks such as terrorism, market bubbles in highly interconnectedand poorly understood global financial networks, and increasingly complexindustrial and critical infrastructure activities (e.g., Deepwater Horizon, civil aviation).Traditional methods are well suited for two of the four risk types identified here(Stable Easy to Discern and Stable Difficult to Discern risks) but are of only limitedutility, and may well be dangerously misleading, for the other two types (DynamicNatural and Dynamic Adversarial risks). Two overarching lessons arise from the typology.The first is that it is essential to properly characterize a given risk with respectto those characteristics that determine which analytic approaches and managementstrategies will be appropriate. The second is that new ways of thinking about, analyzingand responding to risk are necessary if we are to be successful in addressingemerging 21st Century risks.W2-C.4 Rowell KA; karowell@law.illinois.eduUniversity of Illinois College of LawUSING DOSE-RESPONSE CURVES TO CREATE WIN-WIN ENVIRON-MENTAL LEGAL POLICIESThis project identifies legal strategies for concentrating and for spreading riskfrom environmental pollutants. Real and important gains in health, safety, and environmentalquality can result from redistributing pollutants. Where dose-responsecurves are hormetic, redistribution can lead to win-win outcomes, where some peopleare helped and no one is hurt. And where dose-response curves are curvilinear, thereare opportunities to decrease aggregate harm by using either risk spreading strategiesfor concave functions or concentrating strategies for convex ones.165