Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

“nanofibers”) is relatively understudied, and merits increased attention. “Nanofibers”can exhibit properties such as enhanced surface area, improved electrical conductivity,and greater device resilience relative to bulk materials. These characteristics areparticularly relevant to the area of energy storage, where technological advances arecritical to the integration of renewable generation in electricity grids, the widespreadadoption of alternatives and supplements to the internal combustion engine, and otherimportant applications. Energy storage thus comprises a valuable case for explorationof the potential benefits of “nanofibers”, particularly since several innovationsin this realm are approaching commercialization. At the same time, “responsible development”requires examination of possible hazards. While toxicity data regardingnanotubes, particularly carbon nanotubes, is beginning to accumulate, the literatureconcerning other kinds of 1-D nanostructures remains thin. More concretely, thenumber of toxicological studies of nanotubes exceeds those focused on “nanofibers”by an order of magnitude. Given the similar application potential of these two classesof materials, this dramatic dichotomy highlights a priority area for future research.The article reviews the limited relevant toxicological literature to date, and concludesby suggesting life cycle and market-driven strategies to help prioritize ongoing effortsto close this knowledge gap.W3-I.3 Pica APT, Cifuentes LAC, Borchers NBA, Cabrera CCC, RodriguezMRB; lac@ing.puc.clPontificia Universidad Catolica de ChilePUBLIC HEALTH CO-BENEFITS FROM GHG MITIGATION OP-TIONS AT A DEVELOPING COUNTRYAlthough developing countries are not subjected to Greenhouse Gas (GHG)emission targets, the Government of Chile committed itself in Copenhagen to a reductionof 20% from the baseline by 2020. Half of this goal (10%) is contingent onthe availability of foreign sources. Still, 10% is a sizable reduction. Chile has a widespreadair pollution problem. Most of its urban in the center and south of the countryviolate the current PM10 standard, and the newly established PM2.5 annual standard.We quantify the public health co-benefits associated to GHG mitigation measures inChile. This study considers fossil-fuel combustion from the energy sector, transport,Industrial andpublic, residential and commercial sectors at the provincial level. Theresults shows that almost all mitigation options would produce co-benefits, with a midvalue of 10 to 180 USD/tCO2e. The only mitigation option with negative co-benefitis biomass-based electricity generation, with a value -15 to -249 USD/tCO2e. Homeinsulation improvements produce the bigger co-benefits, between 38 and 627 USD/tCO2e. When the estimated co-benefits are included in the analyses, the relative meritof several mitigation options change, and 11/21 measures that had negative net benefitnow became positive.T2-D.2 Plant NG; nplant@usgs.govUnited States Geological Survey, Department of the InteriorUSING BAYESIAN NETWORKS TO EVALUATE SEA-LEVEL RISEProjections of sea-level rise for the coming decades indicate that future impactswill include land loss from inundation and erosion, migration of coastal landformsand environments, increased elevation and duration of storm-surge flooding, wetlandlosses, changes in coastal aquifer hydrology, as well as impacts to human development,infrastructure, and social systems. Improving the ability to predict future sea-level riseeffects on coasts is a challenge. There are uncertainties in how the coastal system willrespond to changes in sea level, and there are also large uncertainties in the predictionof other variables associated with future climate conditions (e.g., storm frequencyand intensity, air and ocean temperature, rainfall) that drive the relevant physical andbiological processes. We have developed a probabilistic approach using a Bayesianstatistical analysis framework that can be used to evaluate the potential for a rangeof sea-level rise impacts to coastal regions. Initial results from the U.S. mid-Atlanticcoastal region identify relationships between the climate (and other) forcing factorsand response scenarios, as well as identifying research needed to reduce uncertainty.The Bayesian network approach provides a means to support decision making andevaluate specific management questions about alternatives for adapting to sea-levelrise and other forms of climate change.T3-C.1 Pottenger LH; lpottenger@dow.comThe Dow Chemical CompanyTHE COLLABORATIVE ARA ADVENTURE: EXTENDING AND EX-PANDING DISCUSSIONS OF PROBLEM FORMULATION AND DOSE-RESPONSEA series of workshops held over two years, was sponsored by the Alliance forRisk Assessment (ARA), an organization aimed at improving the process and efficiencyof risk assessment. The series focused on extending the work begun by the2009 NAS report ‘Science and Decisions’, by broadening and deepening scientificdiscussion on two key recommendations: improving problem formulation and selectingthe appropriate dose-response assessment methodology. These public workshopswere supported by 45 sponsors: government agencies, scientific societies & industrygroups, consulting groups, and non-profit organization/consortia, with state and federalregulators actively involved throughout. Working with an Expert Panel experiencedin toxicology and risk assessment, ~25 dose-response assessment methodologieswere reviewed, each part of a case study illustrated with specific examples. Casestudies were prepared & presented by workshop participants at two workshops, withPanel comments and recommendations providing insight on utility and practicalityof the methods. Using a framework developed from expanding the concepts embodiedin an NAS report figure, case studies were organized based on the underlying159