Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

feasibility of comparing nano-enabled to non-nano-enabled products. Implementationof this scoping process resulted in a list of five candidate carbon-based nanomaterialapplications. The advantages and disadvantages of each candidate wereevaluated by an EPA Work Group with respect to preparation of a case study structuredaround a comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) framework, and onenanomaterial application was selected for the case study. The available published andunpublished data on this nanomaterial application were then reviewed and a draftcase study developed. This draft case study synthesizes the available data on primaryand secondary contaminants, analytical techniques, fate and transport processes, cumulativeand aggregate exposure, and ecological and human health risks across thelife cycle of the product. Data gaps based on this preliminary analysis are presentedbased on the available data identified to date. Prioritization of these informationgaps will occur through a subsequent collective judgment process. Disclaimer: Thisabstract does not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. EPA.P.82 Marlatt HL; holly.marlatt@colostate.eduColorado State UniversityA PROPOSED MODEL TO ANALYZE AUDIENCES’ BEHAVIORALBARRIERS TO ADOPTING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION STRAT-EGIESWhile the American public has been exposed to an extensive amount of informationas to the potential causes and effects of climate change, resulting carbon emittingbehaviors have not shown a significant decline. In fact, many Americans are becomingincreasingly skeptical of the existence of anthropogenic climate change; thus,they may be less likely to be motivated to make behavior changes. People’s conflictingattitudes and subsequent behaviors toward pro-environmental actions representa complex issue that warrants further examination in order for effective communicationand intervention strategies to be implemented by those whose job is to communicatethe associated risks or design the campaign. The purpose of this paper is topropose a procedural model, adapted from Stern’s (2000) value-belief-norm theory,which researchers and practitioners could use to identify specific audiences’ real andperceived barriers to engaging in climate change mitigation strategies. The ultimategoal of this work is to create a comprehensive information database that containsreadily accessible and relevant academic research and campaign evaluation results forpractitioners and researchers to leverage toward the identification of gaps in the extantliterature. An example of how to use the model for identifying the barriers for aspecific audience and a specific climate change mitigation behavior is detailed.140W4-I.3 Martinich J, Lane D, Buddemeier R, Ready R, Cardamone K, Carney K;martinich.jeremy@epa.govUS Environmental Protection AgencyQUANTIFYING AND VALUING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONCORAL REEFS IN THE U.S.Coral reefs provide valuable services to the marine environment and humans,such as recreation, fish production, shoreline protection, and biodiversity. Theseecosystems are highly vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of increasing atmosphericand ocean CO2 concentrations. Understanding how coral reefs will reactunder climate change scenarios is critical to evaluating policies to reduce the economicand environmental damages associated with declining coral reefs in the U.S.and worldwide. Here, we apply the COMBO simulation model (“COral Mortality andBleaching Output”) to estimate future coral cover in three major U.S. locations forshallow water reefs: the Florida Keys, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. Coral reefs in thesethree areas generate recreational and nonuse values worth several billion dollars annually.COMBO simulates the impacts of future climate change on coral reefs fromboth chronic stress from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST)and ocean acidification as well as impacts from episodic high temperature mortality(bleaching) events. COMBO bases its modeling functions for chronic stress relationshipson previous studies of corals in mesocosms; COMBO bases its modelingfunctions for bleaching events on records of heat-dose experienced by coral reefsand associated bleaching severity in different locations. Our results suggest severeimpacts to shallow water reefs in the U.S. over the 21st century under all of our emissionscenarios. However, these potential impacts are delayed under aggressive GHGreduction scenarios. We also monetized these changes in coral cover with a benefittransfer approach using published studies of consumers’ recreational value for snorkelingand diving as well as non-use value for coral reefs. This modeling approachcan also be used for risk management and communication. Specifically, we describethe risks to coral reefs using metrics that will resonate with decision-makers and thegeneral public.T2-F.3 Mauelshagen CW, Denyer D, Pollard SJ; c.w.mauelshagen@cranfield.ac.ukCranfield University, UKACCOUNTING FOR PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT IN RISK MATURI-TY: A CASE STUDY FROM THE POWER UTILITY SECTORRisk maturity models are used to benchmark and improve risk managementperformance. However, they rarely account for professional judgment. Professionaljudgment often appears to be an alternative to, rather than a component of, risk-baseddecision making (1-3). We conducted a case study to examine the role of professionaljudgment in risk decisions made by a power utility company, including: determining