Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

T2-E.4 Guidotti TL; tee.guidotti@gmail.comMedical Advisory ServicesENTERPRISE- AND WORKPLACE-LEVEL RISK MANAGEMENT ANDTHE DEMING CYCLERisk management in the workplace is a form of process improvement and canbe managed as such. Influenced by the UK Health and Safety Executive and theinternational popularity of the “control banding” approach to managing commonhazards, occupational health and safety professionals have adopted a risk managementapproach. (The terminology is somewhat different than in mainstream risk science.)The general approach of enterprise-based risk assessment and managementwhich underlies control banding and other specific applications and the general approachof quality improvement (and many other management techniques) are basedon a common theory of process improvement codified by the American statisticianW. Edwards Deming (1900 - 1993). This connection is not explicit in the occupationalhealth management literature and is rarely mentioned in the process improvementliterature. The risk cycle reduces to the familiar “Deming Cycle” of qualityimprovement [Plan -> Do -> Study -> Act], which is already management policy atmany employers. The Deming cycle can be used to integrate risk management acrossdomains and to align safety management with overall management. Enterprise-levelrisk assessment and management can be readily integrated into enterprise quality improvementand Six Sigma by making links to the Deming Cycle. Worksite-level riskassessment and management, which can appear complicated to the uninitiated, canbe easily reported in “Deming” terms for rapid management comprehension. Corporatepolicies regarding continuous process improvement can be harmonized withpolicies on occupational health protection and safety, realizing practical gains. Occupationalhealth protection measures and outcomes could even be developed as “keyperformance indicators” for the entire organization, since they reflect adherence tothe Deming model and are summary indicators of risk-related performance. Recognizingthis link may open opportunities for making gains in occupational health andrisk management in large organizations.T3-D.1 Guikema SD, LaRocca S; larocca@jhu.eduJohns Hopkins UniversityEFFECTS OF NETWORK TOPOLOGY ON VULNERABILITY DURINGTARGETED ATTACKSIn addition to protecting infrastructure systems against traditional threats suchas natural disasters, it is becoming increasingly important to strengthen such systemsagainst intentional attacks (i.e. terrorism). In this talk, we compare the effects ofnetwork topology on system reliability when subjected to various types of targeted attacks.Using a large set of random networks encompassing a wide range of sizes andtopological characteristics representative of real-world networks, we simulate networkelement failures. We examine the cases of attacks based on nodal degree (initial andrecalculated) and nodal betweenness (initial and recalculated). We develop statisticalmodels relating initial topological characteristics of the networks to network performanceafter attacks. This work provides insights into the types of networks mostresilient to various types of targeted attacks.W2-C.2 Gulledge B; bill_gulledge@americanchemistry.comAmerican Chemistry CouncilEPA’S ENDOCRINE DISRUPTOR SCREENING PROGRAM: LESSONSFROM AN INERT SUBSTANCE CONSORTIUMEPA developed the EDSP in response to a Congressional mandate passed in1996 “to determine whether certain substances may have an effect in humans that issimilar to an effect produced by naturally occurring estrogen, or such effects as [EPA]may designate”(21 U.S.C. 346a(p)). EPA’s EDSP consists of two tiers: Tier 1 focuseson evaluating chemicals for interaction with the estrogen, androgen and thyroid systems,and Tier 2 focuses on determining adverse effects. As part of the EDSP, EPAissues test orders to collect certain test data on selected chemical substances. In general,EPA intends to use the data collected under the EDSP, along with other information,to determine if a chemical may pose a risk to human health or the environmentdue to disruption of the endocrine system. The determination that a chemical doesor is not likely to have the potential to interact with the endocrine system will be madeon a weight-of-evidence basis, taking into account data from the Tier 1 assays and/orother scientifically relevant information. Chemicals that go through Tier 1 screeningand are found to have the potential to interact with the estrogen, androgen, or thyroidhormone systems will proceed to the next stage of EDSP where EPA will determinewhich, if any, of the Tier 2 tests are necessary based on the available data. Data froma Tier 1 screening battery are presented and provided in a weight-of-evidence summary.Problems and issues encountered in performing the required Tier 1 assays aredescribed. Recommendations for improvements in Tier 1 and Tier 2 are provided.Finally, perspectives on EPA implementation of the EDSP for List 2 chemicals areprovided.W2-D.4 Guo Z, Haimes YY; zg9a@virginia.eduUniversity of VirginiaA SYSTEMIC APPROACH TO BRIDGE SENSING AND MONITORINGSYSTEMSHighway bridges constitute an important part of transportation infrastructureand the lifelines of commerce. The condition of highway bridges is continuouslydeteriorating due to the lack of appropriate maintenance, with 26% of America’sbridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete. Bridge inspection evaluatesbridge conditions and provides information for efficient planning of maintenanceand repair activities. Increasingly, automated structural monitoring sensor systems109