Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

M3-F.4 Kovacs D, Thorne S, Butte G, Chang F, Pakiam J, Hakkinen B, Linkov I;dkovacs@decisionpartners.comDecision Partners, LLC, National Institutes of Health, National Library of Medicine, US ArmyCorps of EngineersCHEMICAL HAZARDS EMERGENCY MEDICAL MANAGEMENT(CHEMM): MENTAL MODELS APPROACH TO IMPROVING PROVI-SION OF EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE INFOR-MATIONPresenting relevant and actionable information to stakeholders and decisionmakers is especially challenging in emergency situations. Understanding stakeholderneeds and concerns is very important in designing automated communication and datamanagement platforms. The National Library of Medicine (NLM) and its partnersare developing the Chemical Hazards Emergency Medical Management (CHEMM)online tool, designed to provide access to comprehensive sets of information neededin preparation for, and in response to a mass casualty chemical hazards emergency.The goal of the Tool is to optimize effective decision making enabled through an effectiveTool design and user interface. To achieve this goal, NLM is using an expertmodels/mental models research approach to gain insight into how potential usersthink through and make decisions in such an event. Decision Partners has conducted40 mental models interviews in three cohorts: first responders, first receivers, andother potential Tool users including trainers, planners and researchers. Interviews focusedon users’ perceptions of the characteristics of mass casualty chemical hazardsemergencies where such a Tool might be used (e.g., industrial and transportation accidentsand terrorist incidents), users’ informational needs at various stages of an emergency(e.g., personal protection, site control and logistics, and triage, assessment andhandling of casualties), and the corresponding functional and usability requirementsfor the CHEMM Tool (e.g., actionable, decision making focus and usable design thatallows for quick access to needed information). These interviews build upon expertmodels developed in earlier research through informal interviews and a workshopwith a small number of experts and potential CHEMM Tool users. Interview resultswere coded and analyzed against the expert model and are being used to further Toolinformational and functional design and establish Tool development priorities.T3-H.3 Krishen L; lkrishen@futron.comFutron CorporationFOOD SUPPLY CHAIN SAFETY AND SECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT:AN INNOVATIVE INFORMATION INTEGRATION APPROACHFacilitating and capturing decision-critical risk information that is customizedto the needs of several levels of decision-makers throughout and across multipleorganizations and sources of risk alert information systems is critical to a successfulimplementation of “mission”- critical food safety risk management (RM) and130risk-informed decision management (RIDM). There are major challenges in makingtime-critical and cost-conscious decisions related to mitigation options for reducingspecific food safety risks-both systems-wide or within specific organizations. A keychallenge is timely incorporation and integration of information related to identifiedfood safety risks from a complex array of sources. These sources may include complicatedscenarios like statistical, event-based failure modes models of a food transportor supply chain systemic risks, or deterministic scenarios that account for microbialhazards and projections of outbreak adverse events in play,or it may include moreanecdotal and qualitative risk data that relies on public knowledge-sharing and associatedprojected safety risks. This challenge may be addressed by using a combinationof customized and facilitated risk management process deployment with a novel, riskcommunication,documentation,and information management platform - based onthe Integrated Risk Management Application TM methodology. Once this structuredapproach is in place the criteria to streamline information,prioritize risks and makerapid mitigation decisions is established, and then resources may be optimally appliedto reduce, or even eliminate, adverse consequences. This presentation will discuss astep-by-step, field-tested set of processes and methodologies to successfully deploy arisk-informed decision-making strategy that may be used for food supply chain safetyand security risk management assurance.M4-G.2 Kuempel ED; ekuempel@cdc.govNational Institute for Occupational Safety and HealthMETHODS AND UNCERTAINTIES IN CARBON NANOTUBE RISKASSESSMENTRisk assessment of nanomaterials is needed to develop occupational exposurelimits and to evaluate the effectiveness of exposure controls. Limited data of carbonnanotubes in animals and no data in humans present challenges to selection of appropriatemethods and evaluation of uncertainty. Two subchronic inhalation studies ofmultiwall CNTs in rats were used to evaluate different approaches to CNT risk assessmentincluding: no/lowest observed adverse effect level (N/LOAEL); benchmarkdose (BMD) estimation; and comparative potency to other particles with chronic datain animals or humans. Additional short-term studies in rats and mice treated withsingle or multiwall CNTs with different metal content were also examined using BMDmethods. Sensitivity of results to assumptions in dose estimation and extrapolationto humans were evaluated. BMD-based risk estimates varied by two orders of magnitudeacross the different studies and types of CNTs; however BMD estimates (associatedwith 10% excess risk of early-stage pulmonary inflammation or fibrosis) fromall studies resulted in low estimated working lifetime airborne mass concentrations(as 8-hr time weighted average). The results indicate >10% excess risk of developingearly-stage lung effects over a working lifetime if workers are exposed at the limit ofquantification (LOQ) (7 µg/m^3) of the analytical method to measure CNT airborneconcentrations [NIOSH method 5040]. N/LOAEL-based OEL estimates (with un-