Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

concentration (Ea/C) among climate zones and seasons were compared and assessed.Substantial inter-individual variability in Ea/C was estimated for all areas and seasons.The results indicate that the average exposure to ambient PM2.5 is substantially lessthan the ambient concentration. This implies that concentration-response functionsdeveloped in epidemiological studies are biased when compared to exposure concentrations.Regional or seasonal differences in the average Ea/C ratio may confound orhelp explain variations in concentration-response functions among cities. Exposure,and not just concentration, should be considered in developing risk managementstrategies.P.4 Joe AL, Gurian PL, Olson MS, Teng J, Marquez EB, Kumar A, PepperI, Gerba CP, Galada HC; pgurian@drexel.eduDrexel UniversityCOMPARING AND PRIORITIZING PATHOGEN RISKSThe aims of this research were to: (1) compile the most current and accuratedata on the occurrence, dose-response, and decay parameters for as many pathogensas possible; (2) prioritize and classify pathogens as high, medium, or low risk infectionbased on a novel metric that integrates information on these parameters; and(3) determine which parameter contributed the most uncertainty. Special attentionwas given to biosolids as an exposure medium. Results imply that special attentionshould be focused on Giardia, Adenovirus, Ascaris, Hepatitis A, and Rotavirus as theymay present a high risks based on their dose-reponse and environmental persistence.An uncertainty analysis showed that dose-response and decay parameters contributedthe most uncertainty. Although occurrence was shown to not contribute as considerablyas dose-response and decay, in specific cases, additonal data may still be a priority.This is particularly true for adenovirus which had high estimates of occurrence basedon an extremely limited sample size (N=5).M4-H.1 John RS, Rosoff H; richardj@usc.eduUniversity of Southern CaliforniaVALUE FOCUSED MODELING OF ADAPTIVE ADVERSARIES FORINFORMING COUNTERMEASURE DECISIONSThe US has implemented numerous anti-terror countermeasures in response toperceived threats over the past decade, and efforts are underway to develop others.Unlike natural or accidental man-made disasters, terrorists are adaptive, and may shifttheir attack strategy when a new countermeasure is employed. This adaptive natureof adversaries creates unique challenges for a defender who must select among competingportfolios of countermeasures under resource constraints. Current methodsfor terrorism risk assessment focus on target vulnerability, terrorist capability andresources, and attack consequence, ignoring the importance of terrorist group valuesand beliefs in selecting a particular attack strategy. Understanding the objectivesand motivations that drive adversary behavior is critical to the task of assessing the124effectiveness of countermeasures designed to deter or mitigate an attack from anadaptive adversary. Modeling adversary values and beliefs has the potential to informprobabilistic estimates of adaptive attack behavior, and aid in the design and selectionof anti-terror countermeasures. Using a value-focused decision framework, we assessvalues and beliefs from an adversary value expert (AVE) for specified terrorist leaders.Adversary motivations and values are represented formally in an objectives hierarchyspecific to the context of attacking a transportation system. We then use a randomutility modeling approach to compare the risk profiles of alternative transportationattack strategies and estimate the relative likelihood of an adversary (terrorist leader)selecting a particular attack strategy, conditional on various countermeasures selectedby the (US) defender. Since we cannot collect information directly from terrorists, individualswho have studied contemporary terrorism as well as Islamic terrorist groups(such as Al Qaeda) served as AVEs for particular adversary group leaders. Resultsfrom this demonstration analysis are presented, and potential insights from the proposedanalysis are highlighted.W1-D.3 Johnson BB, Horowitz L, Ehrenfeld J; branden@decisionresearch.orgDecision ResearchCHALLENGES OF MANAGING SMALL SUBURBAN NATURAL AR-EAS: PUBLIC BELIEFS, ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORS REGARDINGECOLOGICAL EFFECTSUrban and suburban ecosystems can be important for local biodiversity, ecosystemservices, psychological health and support for conservation (e.g., via communionwith nature), and even public (human) health. Yet the understandable focus ofecologists and conservationists on larger, more “pristine” ecosystems has left us withlittle knowledge about suburbanites’ relationships with small local “natural areas.”Surveys were conducted of near neighbors of five small forested wetlands in centralNew Jersey. Results indicate a generally positive stance toward conservation of suchareas, but complex and inconsistent patterns of preferred management approachesto them, with limits on over-browsing deer populations standing out as evokingresistance from many of the people who otherwise espouse biospheric values andsupport “conservation.” Beliefs (e.g., about site biodiversity; human impacts on it)and attitudes (e.g., importance of natural uses of the site) towards these sites tendedto most influence management preferences, although general environmental valuesand beliefs (e.g., biospheric values; whether extinctions are occurring and a problem),personal actions (e.g., experience of environmental activism and conservation), anddemographics (e.g., gender, age) also played a role. Survey results imply that findingmanagement strategies for these small suburban natural areas that are simultaneouslyconsistent, ecologically sound, and publicly supported will not be easy.