Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

metrics to provide risk management with options to attain a specific level of publichealth protection in meat and poultry products.W3-F.3 Keisler JM, Linkov I; jeff.keisler@umb.eduUniversity of Massachusetts BostonUSING THE PORTFOLIO DECISION QUALITY FRAMEWORK TOGUIDE RISK ASSESSMENTValue-of-information methods can be applied to the information derived fromvarious assessments. By mapping a portfolio of risks to a portfolio of decisions, wecan use this decision analytic tool to simulate the impact of different assessmentstrategies and reveal the degree to which they increase expected value. Likewise, it ispossible to anticipate the cost of an assessment strategy by tabulating the frequencyand difficulty of each type of assessment required. Good assessment strategies add alot of value relative to their cost.W4-A.2 Keller C, Siegrist M; ckeller@ethz.chETH ZurichTHE INFLUENCE OF RISK COMMUNICATION FORMATS ON BEN-EFIT PERCEPTION OF MEDICAL TREATMENTSIn medical risk communication, the benefit of a treatment is often conveyed asrelative risk reduction. A particular medical drug is described as reducing the risk ofdying from a particular disease by 42%. As the risk of dying without taking the drugis missing, it is unclear how big the risk reduction is. To improve the understanding, itwas recommended to provide information about the risk of dying without the treatment(starting risk) and the risk of dying with the treatment (modified risk). However,there is little empirical evidence available concerning the effect of providing informationabout risk reduction in combination with starting and modified risk. Utilizinga random sample from the general population (N=748), we examined the effect ofsix risk reduction information formats about a drug on individuals’ benefit perception.The results of a study with two groups were described, one of which receivedthe drug and one a placebo. The risk of dying of a heart attack within 5 years wasreported for the placebo group and the treatment group. The information formatsconsisted of six different combinations of information about relative and absoluterisk reduction, all of which included starting and modified risk. A 6 (format of risk information:6 combinations) x 2 (subjective numeracy: high/low) experimental designwas used. A significant effect of format of risk reduction was found. Post hoc testingrevealed that participants in conditions receiving information about the relativerisk reduction perceived significantly higher benefit than participants in conditionsreceiving information about the absolute risk reduction. This was true independentlyof the numerical format of the information about the starting and modified risk(ratio, percentage, and frequency). No effect of numeracy was found. Although participantswere provided with the information about absolute risk, participant’s benefitperception was influenced by the relative risk information but not by the absolute riskinformation such as they associated the larger number with higher benefit.T4-D.3 Kiker GA, Munoz-Carpena R, Convertino M, Chu-Agor M, Aiello-Lammens M, Akçakaya HR, Fischer R, Linkov I; gkiker@ufl.eduUniversity of FloridaINTEGRATED MODELING FOR RISK AND DECISION ANALYSIS OFSHORELINE-DEPENDENT SPECIES THREATENED BY SEA-LEVELRISEClimate change (via sea-level rise and altered weather patterns) is expected tosignificantly alter low-lying coastal and intertidal areas, which provide significant seasonalhabitats for a variety of shoreline-dependent organisms. Many coastal militaryinstallations in Florida have significant coastal habitats and shoreline-dependent birddata that strongly illustrate their seasonal importance for birds. This research efforthas utilized the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), the MaxEnt speciesdistribution model and the RAMAS-GIS metapopulation model to explore the currentand future habitat/spatial distribution/population states as well as the spatial andtemporal patterns of these uncertain results with Global Sensitivity and UncertaintyAnalysis. Joint simulations of sea level rise at 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 meters wereconducted at 30m horizontal grid resolution for the Eglin Air Force Base/Santa RosaIsland areas and for the entire Florida Gulf Coast (Pensacola to Naples) at 120m gridresolution. While uncertainty levels are high, consistent simulation results from thisintegrated model show key results in two areas (1) potential habitat losses and (2)Snowy Plover population dynamics. The integrated models projected that the populationsize will decline faster than the area of habitat or carrying capacity, demonstratingthe necessity of incorporating population dynamics in assessing the impacts of SLRon coastal species. The results were most sensitive to uncertainties in survival rate andfecundity, and suggested that future studies on this species should focus on the averageand variability of these demographic rates and their dependence on populationdensity. Results from these simulations were integrated into a multi-criteria decisionanalysis framework to assess tradeoffs in habitat restoration/protection and speciesfocusedalternatives.W3-G.2 Kim D, Pastoor T, Yi KD, Campbell JL, Anersen ME, Clewell HJ, HandaRH, Breckenridge CB; sue.yi@syngenta.comSyngenta Crop Protection, LLC, The Hamner Institutes, Univeristy of ArizonaEFFECTS OF ATRAZINE DOSE DISTRIBUTION ON PHARMACOKI-NETICS AND PHARMACODYNAMICS IN THE RATThere is limited quantitative information on the pharmacokinetics of ATZ metabolism,and no research on the effects of the route of administration on its pharmacokineticsand pharmacodynamics. The purpose of this work was to compare1) the kinetics of hepatocyte metabolism of ATZ in two species (female Sprague-127