Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

derived from mouse and rat testes tumors. The ability of the monoester to decreasein testosterone in the culture system was compared at the IC50 to set toxic equivalents.The toxic equivalency factor was based on MBP (MBP-TEF) to utilize the richdatabase on the anti-androgenic effects of DBP. An existing rodent PBPK model forDBP and DEHP was extrapolated to the other phthalates using in vitro estimates inhepatocytes. The predictive ability of the model was tested against published humandata for a single dose of labeled phthalate and the fraction of administered compoundexcreted in urine over 44 hr. The cumulative risk was then defined as the sumof the target tissue dose for each phthalate multiplied by its corresponding potencyfactor. The approach used for phthalates could, in principal, be broadened to estimatea cumulative risk for all anti-androgenic compounds for which there is evidence ofhuman exposure.T3-D.3 Christian J, Rokneddin K, Ouyang M, Duenas-Osorio L; jkc5@rice.eduRice UniversityWATER SYSTEM RELIABILITY UNDER HURRICANE IMPACT CON-SIDERING ELECTRICAL GRID INTERDEPENDENCYIn 2008, Hurricane Ike provided a direct hit on Galveston Island along the upperTexas Gulf Coast, and impacted most every major infrastructure system in itspath. Unfortunately, such events are common along the Texas coast, and the impactscan be financially, socially and psychologically devastating to local communities aswell as the state and national economies. This research considers the application ofnetwork science analysis techniques to an actual small town water distribution networkto determine system reliability given a direct hit from a hurricane. In this systemsimulation, the water network proved to be resilient to storm damage when studiedin isolation. However, the water network is also dependent upon the electrical gridto provide operating power for water system pumps. To consider the interdependenciesbetween the power and water networks, this paper introduces a scenario-basedtwo-stage simulation method to decouple system interdependencies which increasesanalysis flexibility and effectively reduces the computational complexity. The systemreliability realizations generated by this method are then used as input to a hydraulicmodel to simulate the resulting water system pressure at consumption nodes throughoutthe network. The simulated system pressures are compared against a minimumpressure criteria to determine if the water network is resilient or not. As this workdemonstrates, survival of the electrical system network is the most important factorin determining the reliability of the water system. Preliminary analysis results areconsistent with observed water system pressures following Hurricane Ike, which impactedthis water system as a Category 2 hurricane. Utilizing the results from this casestudy, the local water system operator and emergency responders can become betterprepared for future disaster events, and the residents can be more confident that minimumwater services can be provided as future hurricanes make landfall.M2-B.2 Chu E, Bockelie A, Linkov I; echu@andrew.cmu.eduCarnegie Mellon UniversitySYNTHETIC BIOLOGY: EVALUATION USING INTEGRATED RISKASSESSMENT, LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT AND MULTI-CRITERIADECISION ANALYSISSynthetic biology is a rapidly expanding field that has the potential to providemankind with unprecedented benefits, ranging from bioremediation to new pharmaceuticaldevelopment methods. As an emerging technology, however, the risksand possible effects of synthesized organisms and components are widely unknown.The availability and development of the technology itself along with the potentialevolution of organisms created with the technology means that present risk governancemay be insufficient to properly evaluate the risks inherent in synthetic biology.Governments and policy makers will have to make informed decisions regarding thetradeoffs between potential risks and benefits. To facilitate decision making and policyoptions, a multi-attribute-decision-analysis (MCDA) approach integrating risk analysis(RA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) is recommended. The framework uses LCAand RA to evaluate and assess the different risks associated with synthetic biology,including biosafety, biosecurity, and ethical issues at different material life cycle stages.MCDA is then be used to compare the risks and benefits of different technologiesor products. Based upon the results of the model, decision makers can focus theirattention and structure policy.W4-C.1 Clark B, Kadry AM, Flowers L, Cogliano V; kadry.abdel@epa.govUS Environmental Protection AgencyNEW INITIATIVES FOR EPA’S INTEGRATED RISK INFORMATIONSYSTEM (IRIS) PROGRAMEPA’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) program is moving forwardon several fronts: increasing the rate at which assessments are completed, finishingseveral major health assessments with important public health impacts, increasingthe clarity and transparency of its assessments, streamlining first-draft assessmentsto make them more concise and easier to follow, and building a foundation to bringnext-generation approaches into risk assessment. EPA has embraced the recommendationsof a National Research Council committee that provided a “road-map”for bringing greater clarity and transparency into its assessments. EPA is restructuringthe standard IRIS document format in order to focus on better characterization ofthe rationale for identifying informative studies and for evaluating the weight of evidence.EPA’s immediate objective is to increase the rate of production of new IRISassessments, to update older IRIS assessments that have significant new informationthat could change toxicity values, and to maintain high scientific quality through rigorouspeer review.77