Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

T2-D.3 Rypinski AD, Cantral R; Arthur.Rypinski@dot.govUS Department of TransportationNATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT & US ADAPTATION STRATE-GIESClimate adaptation planning is emerging as a critical mechanism by which humanand natural systems can better adjust to a changing climate. Adaptation effortsin the United States are being conducted at multiple Governmental levels and by bothpublic and private organizations. Because of the inherent uncertainty in long-rangeprojections, including regional-scale climate projects, risk analysis will play an importantand growing role in developing climate adaptation strategies at all levels. Thispresentation will summarize current Federal activities in climate impacts analysis andadaptation, focusing, including adaptation policies for Federal agencies, environmentalanalysis, and, in particular, on the National Climate Assessment (NCA). At thenational level, the National Climate Assessment acts as a status report on climatechange science and impacts. It is based on observations made across the countryand compares these observations to predictions from climate system models. TheNCA aims to incorporate advances in the understanding of climate science into largersocial, ecological, and policy systems, and with this provide integrated analyses ofimpacts and vulnerability. The NCA will help evaluate the effectiveness of our mitigationand adaptation activities and identify economic opportunities that arise as theclimate changes. The current Assessment is being developed under the auspices ofthe Global Change Research Program, working through a Federal Advisory Committeeand an interagency task force, with an expected completion date in 2013. Thepresentation will identify how risk and decision analysis professionals can contributeto the NCA and other emerging climate adaptation effortsT2-A.2 Safi AS, Smith WJ, Chief K, Liu Z; asafi74@yahoo.comUniversity of MichiganCLIMATE CHANGE IN THE INDIAN COUNTRY: CULTURE, BE-LIEFS, RISK PERCEPTION AND BEHAVIORResearch on Native Americans’ beliefs, perceptions and preferences regardingclimate change is lacking, mostly because of the difficulty involved in working withNative Americans as a research group. This research focuses on exploring the NevadaNative Americans beliefs regarding the reality of climate change, its causes, and riskperceptions of its impacts. The research also investigates Nevada Native American’swillingness to engage to climate change mitigation voluntarily actions, and climatechange policy preferences. As part of the activities of a Nevada EPSCoR NSF fundedproject, Nevada tribes’ environmental managers and tribal members inhabiting thePyramid Lake Paiute Tribe reservation were surveyed using different techniques andapproaches. The survey results show that Nevada Native Americans tend to believein the reality of climate change and its anthropogenic causes. They are also noticingclimate change related impacts in their environments, most notably decrease in snowpacks, decline in surface water, and decrease in water from springs. The most importantclimate change impacts they fear are those impacts that may impose change ontheir cultural practices and traditional lifestyles such as medicinal plants, pine nuts andwillow gathering, hunting, and fishing. Nonetheless, they think that climate changewill hurt the future generation, ecosystems and less wealthy countries more than theU.S., themselves and their families. Most of Nevada Native Americans support takingmitigation actions such as increasing the house insulations, fixing low-energy lightbulbs and planting more trees, but only a minority support actions such as using morefuel efficient vehicles and using public transportation. When it comes to policy preferences,the vast majority of Native Americans support developing renewable energyresources and educating the public regarding climate change and its causes, but theydon’t support policies that might increase the cost of goods and gasoline or increasecitizens’ taxes.T3-E.2 Sanaa M, Poisson S, Lailler R; moez.sanaa@anses.frANSESRISK BASED MICROBIOLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR SHIGA TOXIN-PRODUCING E. COLI (STEC) IN GROUND BEEFShiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) is a group of pathogenic Escherichiacoli strains with the potential to cause severe enteric and systemic disease in humans.While the serotype O157:H7 is considered as clinically the most significant, in Europeit is estimated that up to 64% of STEC infections are caused by non-O157serogroups. Undercooking of ground beef or hamburger patties is a common causeof reported STEC outbreaks. There is a growing demand for food safety targets tosupport the control of STEC particularly in ground beef. We evaluate the publichealth impact of risk-based microbiological criteria (MCs) for STEC at the end of theprocessing line. These MCs define the sampling protocol and acceptance criteria offood batches can serve as a readily food safety management tool in addition to GHPand HACCP systems. By developing a quantitative microbiological risk assessmentpopulated with new collected data on ground beef preparation, STEC heat resistanceand dose response model we obtain a relation between the within lot distribution ofSTEC concentrations on a portion of ground beef and the associated probability ofillness for the consumer. This relation is combined with a set of possible types ofwithin and between lots variability of STEC concentrations (considering differentcontamination patterns) and a set of potential specification of MCs. By analyzing theQMRA outputs, we assess the proportion of lots not complying with the possiblecriteria, and the relative residual risks following complete control of these lots. Fordifferent contamination patterns, this results in different risk estimates and differentimpacts of MCs on test compliance. Our results provide a tool for food safety managersto select the MC that is expected to provide the best balance between the costof batches not complying with the MC and human health risk reduction that may beachieved.167