een found that independence assumptions (which may or may not be valid) still lurkwithin certain sampling-based p-box construction methods. An alternative samplingbasedapproach utilizing the theory of random-sets is proposed. This approach wassuccessfully applied to the a<strong>for</strong>ementioned Mars atmosphere uncertainty project. <strong>Final</strong>ly,on a more positive note, a p-box to random-set trans<strong>for</strong>mation has been recentlyvalidated as yielding conservative results. Although of a fairly detailed nature,these discoveries should prove to be of practical interest to engineers analyzing risk inthe face of epistemic uncertainty.T2-E.2 Ball DJ, Ball-King LN; davidball@gconnect.comMiddlesex University, LondonPUBLIC SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENTIn the UK a major issue has developed during the last decade over the impactof an emergent health and safety culture upon business and public life. In 2010 LordYoung, at the request of the new coalition government, delivered a report (CommonSense - Common Safety) describing the problem and making recommendations. Thereport was accepted fully by government and is now being taken <strong>for</strong>ward by ProfessorRagnar Löfstedt. This paper will describe from a multidisciplinary perspectivethe nature, causes and implications of these problems from the perspective of publiclife. The heart of the matter is that safety from injury requirements have had a seriousimpact upon many things and activities which were previously enjoyed by the public.The impacts affect numerous aspects of public life, from children’s play provisionto the conservation of trees, the enjoyment of natural or historic landscapes, andthe pursuance of adventure activities. The struggle between competing worldviews,which is what this is about, can be witnessed in the behaviours of safety professionals,regulators, advisory bodies, insurance companies and last but by no means least, thecourts. The contest raises fundamental issues about the appropriate way to managepublic safety, on who should decide on how safe things should be, and even about theconduct of risk assessment itself.T4-I.1 Barrett AM, Baum SD; tbambarrett@gmail.comABS ConsultingTOWARDS CONSENSUS ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISK REDUC-TION OBJECTIVESThe reduction of global catastrophic risk (GCR) has emerged as a clear priorityfrom certain risk analytic perspectives. However, GCR reduction raises severalcontentious issues, on which conflicting views can often be found among communitiescurrently active in GCR assessment and reduction. In this presentation, wereview these contentious issues with an eye towards what consensus might exist <strong>for</strong>specific GCR reduction objectives. The contentious issues include: discounting andtime scales of analysis; trade-offs between objectives; and values regarding the fate ofhumanity in the contexts of technological change and diverse eschatological beliefs.58We review issues in assessing trade-offs of GCR reduction options, analyze areas ofagreement and disagreement in views, and discuss implications <strong>for</strong> GCR research andpolicy.W3-H.2 Barrett AM; tbambarrett@gmail.comABS ConsultingADVERSARY MODELING AND DEFENSIVE DECISION ANALYSISFOR ROBUST TERRORISM RISK MANAGEMENTWe develop and illustrate an integrated approach to homeland security risk analysisand defensive resource allocation decision analysis under a variety of uncertainties.The process includes modeling attack processes and attacker decisions; modelingeffects of countermeasures on probabilities and consequences of successful attacks;and conducting risk and decision analyses to find optimal or robust defensive countermeasureinvestment strategies. We illustrate this approach to analyze risks posedby particular attack scenarios, and the trade-offs and robustness of particular attackrisk management strategies. Our approach has value in addressing the variety offactors and scenarios that may need to be included <strong>for</strong> realistic adversary modelingand risk management, as well as in incorporating and analyzing important modelinguncertainties.P.93 Barrios I, Velasco N, Gutierrez E, Munoz F; indirabar@hotmail.comUniversidad de los AndesMODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF RISK IN FUEL TRANSPORTA-TION NETWORKS FOR URBAN AREASThe industry is rapidly developing according to the society’s needs. For this reason,the use of hazardous materials (HazMat) is required <strong>for</strong> the development of themajority of the production processes. The inherent risks in this activity are very highdue to the potential damages to the receptors. In this study, a specific transportationproblem has been considered in an urban area in which the vulnerability increases dueto the high population density and the volume of the infrastructure. The purposeof this work is to provide a multiobjective <strong>for</strong>mulation integrating both the minimizationof total risk and the reduction of distance cost of transport. This model considersthe risk equity law as a restriction to avoid the exposure to an unacceptable riskin a punctual region in comparison to the rest of the transport area. The accidentalrisk included in this model is defined in a more strict procedure. Approved empiricsapproximations such as probit equations (Crowl & Louvar, 2002) have been usedto determine the consequences of the release. The risk was assessed by taking intoaccount fires and explosions as objective events <strong>for</strong> the study. The estimation basedin the dynamics event-receptor provides the model of an accurate approximation ofrisk necessary to validate, the efficiency of the model in the description of operationsof urban transport and optimization to a minimal risk. A distribution network withan acceptable risk was implemented in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System)
with a combination of arcs (section of roads) and nodes (intersection points). Theoptimized network generates the minimum risk difference among the arcs in order toaccomplish an equity distribution. <strong>Final</strong>ly, a specific risk assessment was per<strong>for</strong>medto determine the possible consequences and mitigation plans if regular distributionroutes are affected. The results are applied to the scenario of Bogota D.C (Colombia).M3-B.3 Barzyk TM, Perlmutt L, Dana G, Martin L, Foster S, Bollweg G; barzyk.timothy@epa.govUS Environmental Protection AgencyINTEGRATING CUMULATIVE RISK AND ENVIRONMENTAL JUS-TICE ASSESSMENTS TO GUIDE DECISION-MAKING, PROMOTESTAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND ASSESS CUMULATIVE IM-PACTS: THE CRA-EJ WIZARDPopulation-based exposure and risk assessments typically identify a local-scalearea on the order of a few square kilometers or less, characterize its population andecosystem, and identify and prioritize all the environmental stressors that may affectthe health of the community and ecosystem. These cumulative risk assessments(CRA) often include vulnerability factors, such as income or ethnicity, and susceptibilityfactors, such as age or genetic predisposition, as contributing factors to adversehealth effects. Ecosystems directly impacted by anthropogenic stressors, such as contaminatedwatersheds, could affect local flora and fauna, but could also present anadditional stressor to a downstream community or area. A typical CRA involves manysteps, which include defining purpose and objectives, partnership roles and responsibilities,and geographic and temporal scope; developing a conceptual model that identifieshazards and assessment endpoints; assessing cumulative exposures and potentialrisks; ranking actionable priorities; developing sustainable risk management andmitigation options; and measuring success. Many of these steps are common, thoughoften underutilized themes of Environmental Justice (EJ) assessments, which haverecently adopted a broader consideration of various stressor types. Though manydefinitions of EJ exist, two topics often overlap: meaningful involvement of participantsand stakeholders, and assessment of disproportionate impacts. The CRA-EJWizard is a methodology that integrates common themes between CRA and EJ andprovides a simple user interface to work through the process, from beginning to end.The depth of the assessment depends on user requirements and familiarity with eitherprocess, but can be tailored towards screening or quantitative-level assessments.The Wizard is being developed with constant feedback from CRA and EJ stakeholders.This presentation includes integration methods and case study results <strong>for</strong> theCRA-EJ Wizard.T4-G.4 Bates ME, Chappell MA, Stevens JS, Linkov I; mebates@ucdavis.eduUS Army Corps of EngineersPRIORITIZING NANOMATERIALS RESEARCH THROUGH VALUEOF INFORMATION ANALYSISDespite their rapid commercialization and increasing use in consumer, military,and industrial applications, much remains to be understood about nanomaterialproperties and effects. Both our current lack of knowledge and the results of futureresearch are and will shape the use and acceptance of nanomaterials over time. Currentuncertainties in human and ecological health risks are particularly relevant <strong>for</strong>regulatory decisions and increased certainty in material properties and per<strong>for</strong>mancemay improve future product-development decisions. Not all uncertainties, however,warrant equal consideration or research investment. In each specific decision context,available knowledge in one or more topic areas may be more likely to shift the chosenalternative than in others. Knowledge of these relationships might be valuable, <strong>for</strong>instance, to product designers seeking to select the best materials to use in productdevelopment or <strong>for</strong> governmental researchers seeking to best ensure long-termenvironmental health through regulatory restrictions. Using Multi-Criteria Decision<strong>Analysis</strong> (MCDA) to frame the specific decision context and quantify uncertainties innanomaterial properties and effects, Value of In<strong>for</strong>mation (VoI) analysis is used tostochastically simulate research within the estimated bounds of uncertainty to identifytopical areas most likely to initiate a shift in the rank order of preferred alternatives.This approach can help scientists and decision-makers focus research ef<strong>for</strong>tsand funding by prioritizing sources of uncertainty according to their impact on theultimate decision.T4-I.5 Baum SB; sethbaum@gmail.comPennsylvania State UniversityCOMMUNICATING THE IMPORTANCE OF GLOBAL CATASTROPH-IC RISKThe reduction of global catastrophic risk (GCR) has been identified by a growinggroup of researchers as a top societal priority. However, many of these researchersalso express concern that GCR is not receiving enough attention, either fromthe research community or from the general public. In response to this concern,this presentation presents approaches to communicating the importance of GCRto broad audiences. The presentation draws on insights from research on risk andscience communication, professional practice in popular media and the arts, andfirsthand experience in GCR communication. Emphasis is on how GCR researchersfrom all disciplines can more effectively communicate the importance of GCR in abroad range of settings.59
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SECOND FLOOR Floor MapConvention Ce