Final Program - Society for Risk Analysis

mitigations: 1) fruit is coming from an area of low prevalence of the pest, and 2)fruit are treated with a procedure that is 99.9 percent effective (i.e., less than probit 9,or 99.9968 percent). We defined low prevalence as 5 adult fruit flies per 10,000 fruit(rate = 0.0005), and created a distribution for that using the 95 percent confidencelevel limits for the proportion. Treatment survival was a binomial process with theprobability of survival = 0.001. Using a uniform distribution of imported fruit witha mean of 100,000 fruit per container, we simulated the risk of getting at least onemating pair (i.e., a male and female adult) per container. We compared results to a formulaicestimate of treatment efficacy using the means of the above distributions. Theprobability of a mating pair being present was 0.00066, or about 0.07 percent. Thatcompared to a formula estimate of 0.00061, or close agreement. The probabilisticmodel further informs that the proportion of shipments with more than one survivingadult was only 0.00132, or 0.13 percent. The estimated mean number of containersto the first mating pair is 1515 (= 1/0.00066), with a five percent chance that thefirst pair would arrive in the first 78 containers. Using the probabilistic model can helpmanagers decide if the proposed mitigations meet their phytosanitary requirementsor if additional measures should be required. We are using this and other models tohelp define standard systems approaches for exporting nations.T2-G.2 Cao Y, McGill WL; yan.cao.work@gmail.comThe Pennsylvania State UniversityLINKIT - A GAMING APPROACH FOR ELICITING MENTAL MODELSABOUT RISKIn recent years, a mental models approach has become a leading strategy todevelop risk communications. As it current stands, the mental models approach involvesa time and labor-intensive interview process to develop an understanding ofhow both experts and laypeople understand risk. We propose that the similarity ratingsapproach for structural knowledge elicitation can be adopted to support the riskmental models approach. The LinkIT game, inspired by Games with a Purpose, orGWAP, technology, is designed to group level mental models of risk represented asinfluence diagrams in a more enjoyable and endurable manner when compared totraditional approaches. In order to examine the external validity of LinkIT, we conducteda study to compare its performance with respect to a more conventional questionnaire-drivenapproach. Two network metrics, distance between two networks andself-uncertainty, are calculated for a network-level comparison. We conclude that nosignificant differences exist between the two group mental models elicited from thetwo approaches. Also, LinkIT was twice as productive as the questionnaire in termsof data elicitation. Although participants playing the game have not reported moreenjoyment than those answering the questionnaire, we find significant evidence thatLinkIT, compared to the questionnaire, maintains participants’ interest and attentionlonger. However, the endurability is still a concern for LinkIT because participants74had a difficult time playing the game for longer than 15 minutes. This presentationsummarizes the design and evaluation of the LinkIT game and suggests areas forfuture work.T4-H.5 Carnell R, McMillan N; carnellr@battelle.orgBattelleDEVELOPING PLANNING SCENARIOS AND RESOURCE REQUIRE-MENTS BASED ON QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTHomeland Security Presidential Directive (HSPD) 18 (Medical Countermeasuresagainst Weapons of Mass Destruction) requires a risk assessment of Chemical,Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear terrorism for the purpose of risk based decisionsupport in the area of medical countermeasure acquisition and development.The Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Science and Technology Directoratehas completed a number of risk assessments in support of this directive. TheDepartment of Health and Human Services and other Federal agencies are developingrequirements and planning scenarios partly based on the risk assessment results.Multiple strategies and recommendations for developing resource requirements andplanning scenarios from a probabilistic risk assessment will be discussed using theDHS terrorism risk assessments as an example. In addition, the benefits of turningthe risk assessment into a risk management tool beyond the planning scenarios willbe presented.M4-B.1 Carr PA; carr@media.mit.eduMassachusetts Institute of TechnologySYNTHETIC BIOLOGY APPLICATIONS: HEALTH AND THE ENVI-RONMENTI will discuss current progress in the field of synthetic biology, from my own research(e.g. imparting alternate genetic codes to microbes) and that of others. One ofour great long-term hopes is to provide engineered organisms that work in the humanbody to fight disease and that work in the environment to remediate toxic chemicals.But in addition to achieving our technical objectives, we need a framework for assessingthe corresponding risks. How we will (researchers, policy makers, and the public)decide together when the benefits outweigh these risks? Can a staged series of laboratoryand field experiments produce a sufficient evaluation of the stability of a geneticcontrol system? Of the environmental competitiveness of an engineered microbe?The quantitative approaches of synthetic biology give us an opportunity to look atthese issues from more than simply a hand-waving set of arguments. However mostof us in this field lack the context we need to experimentally support high quality riskassessment. It is my hope that this symposium will provide the beginnings of veryproductive conversations between synthetic biologists and advanced assessors of risk.