From Poverty to Power Green, Oxfam 2008 - weman

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4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY CLIMATE CHANGEBOX 4.6:CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER, AND CONFLICTIN CENTRAL ASIAClimate change is worsening the difficulties faced by theformer Soviet states of central Asia, where cotton farming anddeforestation have already undermined the ecosystem. Like itsneighbours, Tajikistan lives by water-intensive cotton farming,which is based on a dilapidated and hopelessly inefficientirrigation system. A civil war further damaged infrastructure,and nearly a quarter of the population uses irrigation channels –contaminated by farm chemicals – as their main source of drinkingwater. Far downstream, the Aral Sea continues to shrink, exposingthe fertiliser and pesticide dust washed into it in years past,creating a toxic wasteland for people living on its shores.Bad as things already are, climate change could precipitate a‘tipping point’. Tajikistan’s glaciers, the source of most of thewater in the Aral Sea Basin, have shrunk by 35 per cent in thepast 50 years, and what is left will shrink even faster astemperatures rise.In mountain valleys, the rapid melting of ice increases the riskof floods and landslides. Downstream, it is likely to increasecompetition for water. Regional water-sharing systems onceclosely woven together by Soviet design have unravelled andmust now be managed by five fractious and poverty-strickennew countries, each of which wants more water for nationaldevelopment, and all while the overall supply is dwindling –a sure recipe for future tension.BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGEThere are two broad routes to reducing people’s vulnerability to harm:reduce the extent of the hazard that they face, or reduce the risk of thathazard harming them. In the case of climate change, urgent action isessential on both fronts. The hazards of climate change are floods,droughts, hurricanes, erratic rainfall, and rising sea levels, the result ofhuman-induced global warming. Those hazards have to be tackled at261
FROM POVERTY TO POWERtheir source: global emissions must peak by 2015 and then fall by atleast 80 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050, in order to prevent globalwarming exceeding the high-danger point of 2 o C (see Part 5).However, even if greenhouse gases are rapidly brought undercontrol, the delayed effects of emissions already released mean thatrising sea levels, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and rainfall variabilitywill become more severe at least until 2030. 105 In the jargon, tacklingclimate change cannot focus only on ‘mitigation’ (reducing emissions),but must also give priority to ‘adaptation’ (building people’s resilienceto climate impacts). Adaptation is now essential, and communitiesneed substantial national and international support to do it successfully.Human communities have of course adapted to natural climatevariability for millennia by growing diverse crops, using irrigation tomanage scarce water, or carefully selecting seeds for the coming season.Still, some of the poorest communities today cannot cope even withthis natural variability and are severely set back by natural droughts orfloods, taking months or years to re-establish their livelihoods.Human-induced climate change will further exacerbate this stressbecause the speed, scale, and intensity of the severe weather events itcauses will push many communities beyond the bounds of theirexperience. They will be forced to find ways of coping with environmentalchange on a scale not seen since the last Ice Age: rainy seasonsthat do not arrive, rivers that dry up, arable lands that turn to desert,forests and plant species that disappear forever.In some parts of the world, just how the climate will change isinherently uncertain. In West Africa, for example, it is hotly debatedwhether rainfall will decrease and cause drought, or increase andcause flash floods, or stay the same on average but become far moreunreliable, making farmers’ planting decisions much riskier. Wherechange is this unpredictable, people must prepare themselves byacquiring information, resources, infrastructure, influence, andopportunities to diversify their livelihoods. Long-term developmentis one of the most important routes to building the adaptive capacityof an individual, community, or country.Development and disaster preparedness may be essential forbuilding resilience to climate change, but climate change in turnforces a rethink of development and disaster planning. It is no good262
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OXFAM INTERNATIONALOxfam Internatio
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First published by Oxfam Internatio
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PART 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY 197Li
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LIST OF ACRONYMSAIDSARTARVASEANAUCA
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe word ‘editor
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FOREWORDGeorge Bernard Shaw argued
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FOREWORDThis book, which I hope wil
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PART ONE
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1 INTRODUCTION THE UNEQUAL WORLDEnd
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1 INTRODUCTION THE UNEQUAL WORLDExt
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1 INTRODUCTION THE UNEQUAL WORLDPOV
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1 INTRODUCTION THE UNEQUAL WORLDSuc
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1 INTRODUCTION THE UNEQUAL WORLDACT
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1 INTRODUCTION THE UNEQUAL WORLDpeo
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1 INTRODUCTION THE UNEQUAL WORLDcom
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PART TWOThe political roots of deve
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2 POWER AND POLITICS THE POLITICAL
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2 POWER AND POLITICS THE POLITICAL
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I HAVE RIGHTS, THEREFORE I AMThe hi
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2 POWER AND POLITICS I HAVE RIGHTS,
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe attitudes
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERJain: ‘A man
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERI READ, THEREF
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FROM POVERTY TO POWEREven where pub
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERplayed a pivot
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERDespite some p
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERof sub-Saharan
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERIn water servi
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERI SURF, THEREF
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERDespite the hy
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERresearch effor
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWE ORGANISE, T
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERreinforce disc
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe bedrock of
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERwith imperviou
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERgovernments an
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERCASE STUDYand
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERI OWN, THEREFO
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER‘breathe lif
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERLAND REFORM‘
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERled to the cou
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERthese things.
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERwhile Benin an
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWhere flawed d
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERstarted to att
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERI STEAL, THERE
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERTHE CURSE OF W
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERI RULE, THEREF
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERthe turn of th
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERBOX 2.2ARE EFF
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER‘embedded au
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERIn the face of
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERcost incurred
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERIn the Horn of
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERFROM POVERTY T
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER106
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERAN ECONOMICS F
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERpicture it off
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERthe work of wo
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWhile the envi
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERcan be broaden
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERbut are largel
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERaltogether. Ru
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERFIGURE 3.2: MO
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERin their relat
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERliving from lo
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERenvironments.
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERthem farming o
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe jury is al
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERor credit to i
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERplanned mill.
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERto begin with.
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERprogrammes (SA
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERfertilisers to
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERDomestic and r
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERHOW CHANGE HAP
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERTHE CHANGING W
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe nature of
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERNOBODY’S FOR
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERFordist mass p
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERand Palau have
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERA similar situ
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERMany unions ha
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERBOX 3.5INDIA
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERrather than di
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FROM POVERTY TO POWEROne trade agre
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERPRIVATE SECTOR
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERothers see the
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERlocal producer
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWhile China’
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERcountries rock
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERLocal NGOs and
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERbetter off eve
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERTwenty years o
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERcompanies (for
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERhigh- and midd
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERtheir comparat
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERchange is such
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERCASE STUDYThe
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERseason, or whe
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERLIVING WITH RI
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERInsecurity and
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERand withstand
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERcomprehensive
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERFIGURE 4.2: CA
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER(although deli
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Page 243 and 244: FROM POVERTY TO POWERfirewood for s
Page 245 and 246: FROM POVERTY TO POWERthe 1973 droug
Page 247 and 248: FROM POVERTY TO POWERA human securi
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Page 251 and 252: FROM POVERTY TO POWEREveryone has a
Page 253 and 254: FROM POVERTY TO POWERstate-of-the-a
Page 255 and 256: FROM POVERTY TO POWER24-hour advice
Page 257 and 258: FROM POVERTY TO POWERTherefore when
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Page 261 and 262: FROM POVERTY TO POWERgovernment to
Page 263 and 264: FROM POVERTY TO POWERwhether in the
Page 265 and 266: FROM POVERTY TO POWERIn regions pro
Page 267 and 268: FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe key to suc
Page 269 and 270: FROM POVERTY TO POWERBOX 4.5:CUBA V
Page 271 and 272: FROM POVERTY TO POWERdisaster-drive
Page 273 and 274: FROM POVERTY TO POWERIn enhancing h
Page 275 and 276: FROM POVERTY TO POWERhigher confide
Page 277: FROM POVERTY TO POWERIn Africa’s
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Page 283 and 284: FROM POVERTY TO POWERfrom this have
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Page 303 and 304: FROM POVERTY TO POWERSHOCKS AND CHA
Page 305 and 306: FROM POVERTY TO POWERMajor changes
Page 307 and 308: FROM POVERTY TO POWERpassed from be
Page 309 and 310: FROM POVERTY TO POWERWHO RULES THE
Page 311 and 312: FROM POVERTY TO POWERPowerful state
Page 313 and 314: FROM POVERTY TO POWERThroughout the
Page 315 and 316: FROM POVERTY TO POWERinflationary p
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Page 319 and 320: FROM POVERTY TO POWERFund now both
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Page 325 and 326: FROM POVERTY TO POWER- rather than
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER• Sudden inf
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERthe USA is cur
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERto reduce the
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THE INTERNATIONAL TRADING SYSTEMTRA
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERPatents: Intel
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERdumping on wor
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERMost alarming
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERprotectionism
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe vast major
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERPrices for som
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER• Establish
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERborder, or at
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERBOX 5.1MIGRANT
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERnumber of‘fr
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERFor example, q
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERMotivated by a
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERIn the Uruguay
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERlong-term deve
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERimportance in
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERUN Global Comp
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe drivers of
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERMore broadly,
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWhatever the m
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe heightened
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe aid optimi
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe aid optimi
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERand 2006/07, f
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERgovernment dow
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERpractice, but
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWithholding ai
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER1950s and 1960
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERchanged. Simil
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERremain in the
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERand the UN pro
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERA decade on, t
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERCASE STUDYFebr
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERTHE INTERNATIO
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe humanitari
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe wrong kind
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERlead agencies
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERgovernment in
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe only probl
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERopportunity is
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERREFUGEESPeople
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWest African S
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERdrivers of con
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERCASE STUDYgrou
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERCLIMATE CHANGE
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERwithout heavy
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERunless the wor
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERcap the aspira
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERreduce the qua
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERThe CDM is bes
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERAccused variou
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERemissions by 8
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERBangladesh and
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERGLOBAL GOVERNA
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERNew Zealand wa
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERA NEW DEAL FOR
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER430
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERHow change hap
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER• Family str
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERTHE DYNAMICS O
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERseeking change
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWithin many de
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERSecond, becaus
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER15 For a more
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER41 WaterAid (2
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER121 UNDP (2007
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER46 R. Offenhei
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER106 M. Rama (2
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER172 P. Chaudhr
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER37 FAO (2007).
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER94 IPCC (2007)
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER155 UN OCHA (2
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER34 UN (2006)
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER101 M. Chen (2
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER168 D. Rodrik
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER215 UN Framewo
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERBIBLIOGRAPHYAc
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERBoko, M., I. N
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERCiconello, A.
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERDFID (2005)
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERGaleano, E. (1
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERHopkins Leishe
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERKeynes, J.M. (
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERMoran, T. (200
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FROM POVERTY TO POWEROxfam Intermó
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERRama, M. (2003
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERStockbridge, M
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERUNESCO (2007)
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERWorld Bank (20
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FROM POVERTY TO POWEROxfam Australi
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERGLOSSARYAccoun
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FROM POVERTY TO POWEREffective stat
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERNeoclassicalec
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERINDEXPage numb
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERfinancial inst
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER303, 304, 305,
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERgrowth 114, 18
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERIndia:access t
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERJapan:climate
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERPacific region
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FROM POVERTY TO POWERtransnational
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FROM POVERTY TO POWER241; human sec
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