From Poverty to Power Green, Oxfam 2008 - weman

4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY VIOLENCE AND CONFLICTcountries, to provide effective, accountable state institutions such asthe rule of law, or control of national borders. This is not just about thestate’s capacity to provide these services; it is also about political leaders’choice as to whether or not they will do so. In many places, like southernSudan, it is a combination of both; the region’s embryonic structuresare still being built up, but that does not explain away the continuedfailure of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army to uphold the rights ofchildren – according to recent reports some SPLA elements continueto recruit or conscript child soldiers and there are allegations of otherviolations of the rights of children.In conflicts around the world, the state’s security services canabuse human rights just as much as their non-state enemies – and thatapplies to some developed states, such as Israel, as well as developingones. A strong state is essential, but by itself is not enough to guaranteethat civilians are protected from the worst horrors of war.Conflict both undermines states and is more likely in situationswhere the state is already weak or non-existent. The UK’s Departmentfor International Development (DFID) lists 46 such ‘fragile states’;35 of these were in conflict in the 1990s. On DFID’s estimate, thesestates account for one-third of people living on less than $1 a day. 147Domestic factors tend to outweigh external ones in most crises,but international factors often exacerbate local problems. When globaleconomics and politics marginalise large swathes of the world, somesocieties are stretched to breaking point. Climate change is alreadyaggravating the process.According to one study in 2007, 102 countrieswill face an increased risk of violent conflict as climate change exacerbatesthe ‘traditional’ risks of inequality and unaccountable governance. 148The ready availability of weapons drastically increases the deathtoll of any given conflict. Arms manufacturers, from both North andSouth, are flooding developing countries with guns. There is one‘small arm’ for every ten people on the planet and a further eightmillion new weapons are added every year, along with another twobullets per member of the human race. 149In many of today’s conflicts, war has become an economicallylucrative business, which political and military elites want to keepgoing for as long as they can. This is the ‘political economy of war’, aself-serving and self-sustaining system that in many instances has281